Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04LAGOS2227
2004-11-02 15:48:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: OBASANJO KEEPS FIRM GRIP ON PDP IN THE

Tags:  KDEM NI PGOV PREL PINR 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 002227 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR DRL, INR, AF/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2009
TAGS: KDEM NI PGOV PREL PINR
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO KEEPS FIRM GRIP ON PDP IN THE
SOUTH

REF: A. LAGOS 2134

B. LAGOS 2138

C. ABUJA 2154 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 002227

SIPDIS

STATE FOR DRL, INR, AF/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2009
TAGS: KDEM NI PGOV PREL PINR
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO KEEPS FIRM GRIP ON PDP IN THE
SOUTH

REF: A. LAGOS 2134

B. LAGOS 2138

C. ABUJA 2154 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: The ruling PDP controls the governments in
all the southern states except Lagos. As so often happens
when a party obtains such dominance, most political friction
in the south is no longer the child of inter-party
competition. It is a product of the leviathan party's own
internal dynamics and inconsistencies. Throughout the south
President Obasanjo is attempting to throttle his internal
opposition, many of whom are allied with Vice President
Atiku. This has produced fissures in many state PDP
organizations. Obasanjo will win many of these confrontations
but, in the process, several PDP state chapters will be
bruised and weakened. End Summary.

--------------
PDP: Control The South, Control The
Party...And Perhaps The Country
--------------


2. (C) The Independent Nigeria Elections Commission (INEC)
awarded the PDP all Southern States, except Lagos, in the
2003 elections; Elections universally criticized as stained
by fraud. The PDP is demonstrably stronger in the South than
the only other party that claims a nationwide base--the ANPP.
Conversely, the ANPP is stronger in the North than the PDP.


3. (C) As conventional wisdom now stands in Nigeria, he who
controls the PDP, should control the presidential and most
others elections in 2007. Although constitutionally barred
from the 2007 election for now, Obasanjo is working hard to
make his imprint the one that dominates the party and the
next electoral cycle. A key strategy toward achieving this
objective is to squelch all known opposition within the PDP.
The often clumsy, heavy-handed pursuit of this mission has
spawned some successes but it has also generated greater
discord underneath an already rancorous party tent. What
follows are a few illustrative examples of Obasanjo's
hard-line strategy against internal opposition within the PDP.

--------------
Things Fall Apart in Anambra
--------------


4. (C) Anambra State has become a hotbed of political

intrigue. This is due in part to the intense struggle among
competing local politicians and their allies in Abuja seeking
to control both the State government and the party apparatus.
At the center are Governor Chris Ngige and millionaire
businessman Chris Uba, Ngige's former partner, now mortal
enemy. Uba, is the brother of Presidential Special Assistant
Andy Uba--a member of Obasanjo's inner circle. Due to this
filial nexus, Chris Uba is seen as enjoying Obasanjo's
support. Meanwhile Ngige is now aligned with VP Atiku. Uba
has been trying to oust Ngige because Ngige reneged on a
pre-election arrangement that would have ceded a
considerable windfall from the state's coffers to Uba.


5. (C) While Uba has been stalking Ngige, the PDP national
executive council, controlled by Atiku allies, expelled Uba
from the party. In an apparent show of support for Uba,
Obasanjo overturned the expulsion. Since then Uba has been
unrelenting in his efforts to realize Ngige's downfall. Uba
has gone to the extent of publicly claiming he helped Ngige
rig the election, stealing it from All Progressive Grand
Alliance (APGA) candidate, Peter Obi. An APGA official has
told us APGA has been holding close door talks with Uba in an
attempt to arrange a deal that would give their candidate the
gubernatorial chair. Uba has clearly suggested to APGA that
his involvement in the talks and his ability to deliver was
based on the support of his brother and of President Obasanjo.


6. (C) National Assembly elections in Anambra have also been
a battleground between Obasanjo and Atiku allies. Prior to
the 2003 elections, PDP's Executive Council forwarded to the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) names of
three senatorial candidates in Anambra state. The three
candidates--Ben Obi, Joy Emordi, and Christian Ukchukwu, all
Atiku confederates--won the elections in their respective
senatorial districts. However, the party executive wrote a
letter asking INEC to replace the apparent victors with three
other party members. INEC acceded to the party's request and
the three men--Ikechukwu Abana, Emma Anosike, and a Ugochukwu
Uba--were sworn in as senators. (Ugochukwu is Chris and Andy
Uba's brother.) Although an election tribunal faulted the
entire process and ordered the process reversed, neither INEC
nor the PDP has complied. An unabashed braggart, Chris Uba
has told many people that the President ordered the
replacements. Obasanjo has denied any role in the
replacements. Yet, the normally decisive Obasanjo has not
exerted his authority to make INEC or the PDP comply with the
court order to reinstate the original candidates. (Comment:
If you were to ask many Anambrans, they would state the
senatorial elections were twice stolen. First, APGA probably
won two of the seats but INEC gave the victory to the PDP,
only for one faction of the PDP to take the spoils from the
other. This embarrassing episode is one of the reasons cited
by world-renowned Nigerian novelist Chinua Achebe in his
October 18 refusal of Nigeria's second highest award,
Commander of the Federal Republic. End Comment).

-------------- --------------
Abia State Crisis - Obasanjo Clips Governor's Wings
-------------- --------------


7. (U) Abia State Governor Orji Kalu has been a long-time
resident of Obasanjo's dog house and it does not look like he
will be paroled any time soon. On March 5, Kalu further
kindled the President's ire by accusing the PDP leadership,
including Board of Trustees Chair Tony Anenih, of plotting to
assassinate him. Kalu further alleged receiving phone calls
from the President's office threatening him for making such
an allegation. Apparently unhappy with Kalu's antics, the
presidency revoked the license of Kalu's Slok airline, citing
alleged licensing infractions. In turn, Kalu attempted to
dismiss his pro-Obasanjo Deputy Governor who had publicly
contradicted Kalu by stating there was no plot to assassinate
the Governor. After Abuja placed pressure on Kalu, he
relented in chasing his deputy toward the exit ramp.
However, Slok airlines remains grounded in Nigeria. (Comment:
Kalu is a colorful politician who likes the swirl of
controversy. However, his popularity has waned appreciably
since 2002. This ally of VP Atiku and former lackey of
ex-head of state Babangida is now vulnerable to political
attack. Kalu's slump has little to do with Obasanjo's
tactics. His governance has deteriorated. Meanwhile the
success of APGA and the Movement for the Actualization of the
Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) in the southeast has made
many of the Igbo, PDP governors and other elected officials
less germane to the politics of their region.

-------------- --------------
Obasanjo Has Smooth Sailing Within The PDP In Southwest
-------------- --------------


8. (U) Unlike the Southeast where anti- and pro-Obasanjo
forces within the PDP struggle, Obasanjo's opposition within
the party is negligible in all five PDP controlled
Southwestern states. Top loyalists like National Vice
Chairman Bode George (recently sacked along with the board of
the Nigerian Ports Authority over allegations of corruption)
and prominent Oyo State politician Lamidi Adedibu appear to
have successfully threshed opposition to Obasanjo in these
states. In this region, opposition comes mainly from the AD,
personified by Governor Tinubu of Lagos State.

-------------- --------------
South-South fights over Vice Presidential Ticket
-------------- --------------


9. (C) The big fights within the South-South states have
been over the party's vice presidential ticket and over
selection of the regional vice president in the party. With
the presidential nomination likely to travel north, the VP
selection will migrate South, perhaps to the South-South or
Southeast. The Southwest is unlikely since Obasanjo from that
area. His long tenure as president would militate against the
region producing the next vice president. Pro-Atiku Governors
Attah of Akwa Ibom, Alamieyeseigha of Bayelsa, and Kalu of
Abia are angling for the prize. Obasanjo apparently favors
Rivers State Governor Peter Odili, chiefly because Odili
checked his scruples at the door and delivered handsomely to
Obasanjo in the 2003 election. Odili's fortune has suffered
because of the recent violence in his state (reftels).
Indicating his affinity for the governor, the usually gruff
Obasanjo has given the velvet glove treatment to Odili by not
directly upbraiding him for the commotion in Rivers or
declaring a State of Emergency as Obasanjo did in Plateu
State. Apparently, Obasanjo hopes Odili can rebound from
this detrimental episode.


10. (U) Second, there was intense competition among the PDP
governors in the zone over replacement for the murdered
Animasoari Dikibo, the region's National Vice Chairman of the
party. The zone is split between the selection of Godspower
Ake and Dr.Tarila Tebepah. Ake is Governor Odili's Special
Advisor and nominee and Tarila is supported by four of the
other five governors (Cross River Governor Duke has remained
neutral). The four governors alleged that PDP national
headquarters imposed Governor Odili's nominee on the zone to
prepare the groundwork for Odili to get the vice presidential
nomination in the 2007 presidential elections.

--------------
The Law of Unintended Consequences
--------------


11. (C) While attempting to render an iron grip on the party
machinery in the South, Obasanjo and his lieutenants should
be careful about who they squeeze out and what the rejected
might do. Two of the GON's greatest headaches are people who
once were allied with the Obasanjo's faction of the PDP. One
is Alhaji Dokubo Asari, the central figure in the recent saga
of the Niger Delta. The other is Ralph Uwazurike, leader of
MASSOB in the Southeast.


12. (C) Banished from the PDP mainstream after losing favor
in the Obasanjo camp, both men have taken actions seeking to
make mainstream electoral politics irrelevant--Asari with his
threat against oil production and Uwazureike by canvassing
for Biafran independence. Most others who have been and will
be dispossessed by the PDP will not go to such extremes, but
many likely will seek solace in opposition parties.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) If not properly managed, the struggle for PDP party
control could further aggravate schisms already hurting most
of the party's southern chapters. In a bid to assert his
authority, Obasanjo seemingly has empowered his loyalists to
seize control of the various state machines in any manner
they deem fit. Due to the strength of Obasanjo's position
and VP Atiku's waning influence in the south, Obasanjo
loyalists will likely win a majority of these tiffs. But the
heavy-handedness is taking a toll on the party. The Obasanjo
group may gain tighter control of the southern PDP, but at
the price of creating greater division within the party and
of adding to the roster of ex-members who join the opposition.


14. (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BROWNE