NIGERIAN OPPOSITION PARTY TRIES TO REGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 002069

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR INR, AF/W, AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2014
TAGS: KDEM NI PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN OPPOSITION PARTY TRIES TO REGAIN
RELEVANCE, BUT HOUSE-CLEANING REMAINS

REF: LAGOS 1849

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 (b) and (d)

This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The crisis-ridden, Yoruba dominated Alliance
for Democracy (AD) party selected former Osun State governor
Bisi Akande as its new national chairman in a September 29
Lagos convention. Party faithful hoped the convention would
reconcile rival factions, putting an end to an embarrassing
public tussle over the party chairmanship. However, leaders
of the Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere (AD's
political progenitors),denounced the convention, announcing
it was severing all ties with the party. The Lagos State
governor, Ahmed Tinubu, the lone AD governor, reportedly
considered the convention a pricey necessity in order to
bring the party back in compliance with Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) regulations. AD is reportedly
casting for alliances outside of Yoruba land: courting VP
Atiku (a close Tinubu friend) to join the party, should
President Obasanjo not support him in his 2007 bid for the
PDP nomination, as well as cozying up to aggrieved Delta
groups. However, AD still has a lot of internal
house-cleaning before it can form effective partnerships.
END SUMMARY

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Background
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2. (U) Once a significant player on the Nigerian political
scene, AD lost five of the six southwestern gubernatorial
seats in the flawed 2003 elections, emerging with only the
Lagos State governorship. The party was further weakened by a
power struggle between rival national chairmanship aspirants,
Mojisola Akinfenwa and Bisi Akande, for the post of national
chairman, which culminated in two separate conventions being
held late 2003. The Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) voided both conventions and gave the party
an October 31, 2004 deadline to resolve its internal crisis
or organize yet another new convention. INEC threatened
deregistration if the party failed to take either of these
measures.

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Internal AD Disputes Give PDP an "Easy Ride"
--------------


3. (SBU) Sola Iji, Ondo State chairman for the AD party met
Polchief, Poloff, and Polspecialist on the eve of the
September 29 convention. Iji said the public rift between
Akinfenwa and Akande had damaged the party's ability to
retain and attract members and to be a voice in national
politics. AD party members are supporting other parties'
presidential hopefuls, merely because they want to be on a
winning team, Iji claimed. He commented that with AD
consumed by internal crises, the governing People's
Democratic Party (PDP) was having "an easy ride." Iji said
his state was neutral as to who emerged as the new national
chairman. The important thing was for the party to be
reconciled and to return to compliance with INEC regulations.


-------------- --
Afenifere Elders Stuck in Ethnic-Based Politics
-------------- --


4. (SBU) Iji complained Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba
socio-political group that authored AD, continued to hobble
the party's efforts to expand its support base. Afenifere,
he said, wanted to keep an iron grip on the party and pick
its leaders. This alienated both younger and non-Yoruba
party members. Iji remarked that the antagonists in the
current crisis - Papa Adesanya, leader of Afenifere,
Akinfenwa, and Adanke - are all septuagenarians. It's time
to make room for new leadership, he concluded, vowing that
that AD would do so, "with or without Afenifere."

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Lagos Governor's Office Has Eye on 2007;
Seeks Alliance with VP Atiku
--------------


5. (C) Folorunsho Folarin-Coker, Deputy Chief of Staff to
Lagos State Governor Ahmed Tinubu, told Polchief in a
separate October 4 meeting that the governor viewed the
convention as a "colossal waste of money." Nevertheless, it
was necessary in order to bring the party back into INEC
compliance. Folarin-Coker alleged the PDP was "pulling the
strings" behind Afenifere in order to foment dissent within
the party. The new convention, he said, would therefore
yield no positive results, since PDP/Afenifere machinations
would undoubtedly continue. Folarin-Coker also accused INEC
of contributing to the AD crisis, saying, "the only thing
independent about the commission is the "I" in its name."


6. (C) Asked how the party planned to extract itself from
the crisis, Folarin-Coker replied, "money." "These
conventions are meaningless. With money, we will regain our
ward, legislative, and gubernatorial seats." Folarin-Coker
said VP Atiku could provide the funds needed to restore party
relevance, and in return AD could provide him a vehicle to
run for the presidency, should he fail to win the PDP ticket.
He maintained that Lagos Governor Tinubu and VP Atiku were
"very close" and were actively discussing strategic
partnership, should President Obasanjo fail to endorse Atiku
in 2007.

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Or We Can Ally With the Delta Groups
--------------


7. (C) Folarin-Coker averred that the governor's office and
the AD party are also engaged in active discussions with
aggrieved minority Delta groups. Pressed for how a largely
South-West Yoruba party planned to attract these disparate
groups, Folarin-Coker acknowledged the lack of "perfect
ideological congruence." However, he insisted that as
elections approached these groups might find the AD the "best
suitable bedfellow."

-------------- --------------
Convention Atmospherics -- Music, Dance, and More Music;
Akande Wins while Afenifere Pouts
-------------- --------------


8. (U) PolSpecialist reported the convention had a festive
atmosphere, as traditional musicians and singers ushered
attendees into the stadium and delegates and guests sang and
danced for hours. Prominent party members including former
AD governors and legislators attended the event, as did
representatives from several other political parties. The
most important attendee, however, was the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC),whose presence was seen
as giving the stamp of approval to what party adherents hope
will be the final, conclusive national convention.


9. (U) Approximately 4000 delegates voted to choose the
party's national executives with former Osun State Governor
Bisi Akande emerging as the party's new chairman. Leaders of
the Akinfenwa faction did not attend the convention.
Immediately after the convention, Afenifere leaders denounced
the affair and reaffirmed their support for Akinfenwa as the
party's "authentic leader." On October 5, Afenifere declared
it was severing all ties with the party. (Comment: We may
not have seen the last of the tattered Afenifere-AD alliance.
Afenifere leader Adesanya is reportedly trying to sidle up
to new AD chair Akande in hopes of keeping his relevance.
End Comment.)

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Comment
--------------


10. (C) This convention was stricken with the flaws of the
prior two disputed conventions. The roster of delegates made
the outcome pre-ordained. That many Afenifere leaders and
Akinfenwa partisans boycotted the meeting is no big surprise.
Few people are keen on attending an event at which their own
public political demise is an integral part of the
proceedings. That Afenifere is now publicly estranged from
the AD demonstrates how far Afenifere has fallen in recent
times. If it sold stock, one could buy Afenifere shares at
distress values. The split also shows that the AD leadership
is now independent of Afenifere and feels confident enough in
its strength or in Afenifere's weakness to absorb the
latter's wrath. The convention may have tapped Akande as the
new AD chairman, but it confirmed Lagos Governor Tinubu as
the real leader of the AD.


11. (C) Tinubu is a close political ally of VP Atiku, and
there has never been much love lost between Tinubu and
President Obasanjo. Tinubu will continue to people the AD
leadership with people that look like him. He will also try
to keep his opponents in Afenifere on their haunches by
fomenting division within that group. In this vein he called
an Afenifere meeting on October 5 in which Senator Ayo
Fasanmi was appointed Afenifere deputy chairman. Meanwhile,
Presindent Obasanjo and his cronies want to control the
Southwest. They will continue to use Afenifere and disunity
in the AD to weaken the party. The notion is plausible that
VP Atiku may see the AD as an insurance policy should his bid
in the PDP be unsuccessful. However, we think Atiku would be
reticent to fund the AD knowing that such a move, if
uncovered, would sink him in the PDP.


12. (C) With the withdrawal of Afenifere and possibly the
Akinfenwa group, the AD may emerge from the convention as a
less divided party. But it is also a smaller one, shorn of
many of its founders and leading members. The new
leadership, not so wedded to pan-Yoruba ideals, may be more
willing to reach out to other groups. Ironically, because of
the political split in Yorubaland, they will have less to
offer these groups. In the final analysis, the AD is safe
only in Lagos State. It will be hard pressed to gain
meaningful allies among other groups in Southern Nigeria.
Its best hope does not lie in what it can do for itself but
in waiting for internal divisions within the PDP to send
disgruntled PDP members its way. Until then, the PDP stands
as the big winner in this latest Afenifere-AD flap because it
will likely weaken the AD's appeal in Yorubaland.
BROWNE