NIGERIA: PRELUDE TO POSSIBLE NATIONAL STRIKE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 002068

SIPDIS

NOFORN

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR EB
STATE FOR DRL
STATE PASS DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION MARAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2014
TAGS: ELAB PGOV NI PHUM EPET
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRELUDE TO POSSIBLE NATIONAL STRIKE

REF: A. LAGOS 1969


B. LAGOS 2042

C. ABUJA 1011

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d

This is a joint Consulate Lagos - Embassy Abuja Cable


1. (S/NF) Summary: Barring a last-minute breakthrough in
tense, on again, off again talks between the GON and the
National Labor Congress (NLC),the stage is set for a
nationwide "stay-at-home" on Monday, October 11. All major
unions have announced their intention to honor the strike
protesting a recent fuel price hike (ref A). The strike's
sustainability or the level of violence it may engender is
unpredictable at this point. GON security forces have been
advised to quickly thwart any demonstrations. Posts held EAC
meetings on October 6 and 10 and are taking appropriate
precautionary measures (refs B and C). In an unrelated event
that nonetheless adds to the climate of tension, Nigerian
employees of Royal Dutch Shell began a two-day strike October
7, protesting company-wide downsizing. Shell's oil
production has not been affected. End Summary.

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GON - Labor Talks Deadlock
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2. (U) In an effort to avert the national stay-at-home, the
Ministry of Labor called a meeting October 6 with
representatives from the NLC, the Nigerian National Petroleum
Corporation (NNPC),and the Nigeria Employer's Consultative
Association (NECA). Total and other independent oil
companies also attended. The talks ended abruptly when NLC
President Oshimohole objected to what he termed only "low
level" government representation. The NLC insisted
Ministerial level GON representation was needed for
meaningful negotiations.


3. (U) In addition to the talks convened by the ministry of
labor, the federal Senate Committee on Employment Labour and
Productivity began closed-door negotiations with the NLC, the
Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPRA) and the
NNPC on October 6. The House of Representatives unanimously
called on the government to revert to the old fuel price and
on the NLC to call off the strike until a compromise could be
reached.


4. (C) While President Obasanjo is doing everything he can
(short of compromise) to avert the strike, a source in the
Presidency says that the pressure on Obasanjo to roll back
the price inceases is growing among many of his closest
confidants, both politicians and businessmen. The source
speculates that the negative publicity a strike will generate
for Nigeria and the record price of oil on the international
market have swayed the opinions of this group of advisors.

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Who's For A Strike? We All Are, At Least Rhetorically
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5. (U) All three major labor federations - The Nigeria Labor
Congress, Trade Union Congress (TUC),and Center for Free
Trade Unions (CFTU) - have announced their support for the
strike. Many civic, student, and professional organizations
have also publicly endorsed the "stay-at-home" call. We have
also heard reports of student groups in some southern areas
such as Lagos State and Delta State, holding "warm-up"
strikes. Some oil service companies in Warri, for example,
suspended operations on October 6, due to one such pre-strike.

(Comment: The fuel price hike is universally reviled and
President Obasanjo's popularity is flagging. It is thus no
surprise that so many unions/organizations have announced
their support for the strike. However, it remains to be seen
how long a "stay-at-home" can be sustained. The fuel price
controversy has served as a rallying point for many Nigerians
who are frustrated with the government on issues not solely
related to the price hike.)


6. (U) In practical terms, we expect most public
educational institutions to close or have limited operations
on Monday. Local contacts say food markets will likely be
closed during the day, with some opening at night for those
who "forgot to stock up." Financial institution contacts are
expecting staff to report to work, but banks may not fully
open to the public, due to concern about possible violence.
The stock exchange expects to trade normally. The strike's
impact on manufacturing companies will likely vary by company
and by geographic location. Oil companies report they plan
to operate normally. (Note: Most of the oil companies are
located on self-contained compounds and/or are off-shore.
End Note.)

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Labor Pulling Out All Stops To Make Sure Strike Holds
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7. (U) Desperate to ensure the strike's success, the NLC has
issued detailed "mobilization" instructions to its 36 state
councils. Several symposiums have been held in the Lagos area
in the run-up to the strike in order to "sensitize" the
public. On October 6, the NLC began distributing T-shirts,
badges, leaflets, and handbills to communities in the Lagos
area. NLC leader Benson Ukpa expressed to Abuja poloffs his
satisfaction with pre-strike preparations and claimed that
"all of Nigeria" supported the NLC in this strike.


8. (C) Comment: The NLC, hurt by Senate approval of a new
labor bill and a federal court decision that claimed the NLC
doe not have the authority to call on strike on fuel taxes is
doing its best to ensure the strike happens. Adherence to the
stay-at-home is as much a referendum on public support for
the NLC as it is on the government's decision to raise fuel
prices.

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GON Won't Brook Demonstrations
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9. (S/NF) GON security contacts told Embassy Abuja that the
security presence in Abuja, Lagos, and other flashpoints
would be increased in anticipation of the strike. RMSA
reports that GON security services have been ordered to
quickly thwart any violent demonstrations.


10. (C) To forestall flight disruptions at Murtala Muhammed
International Airport (MMIA) during the protest, aviation
authorities have put in place several contingency plans.
According to a Federal Aviation Authority of Nigeria (FAAN)
official, Air Force personnel and FAAN security personnel
will be placed in strategic areas around the airport.
Authorities have also arranged for the transportation and
accommodation of air traffic controllers during the
stay-at-home. (Comment: We expect international flights to
continue operations. Domestic flights are less certai,
particularly should the strike last longer than a few days.
End Comment.)

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Preparations - Batten Down The Hatches,
Stock Up on Money and Food
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11. (U) Bank contacts reported cash withdrawals have
increased significantly as clients anticipate the need to
make substantial purchases of food and other supplies over
the weekend. Many banks said they were considering opening
over the weekend to meet the extra demand.


12. (C) As reported refs b and c, the Mission is also taking
precautionary measures of assuring adequate fuel supply for
generators and motor vehicles and preparing a warden message
alerting the non-official community to increase their
security posture as warranted. Both American schools will be
closed on Monday.

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Nigerian Shell Workers Stage Unrelated
Warning Strike; Oil Production Not Affected
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13. (SBU) In an unrelated event, Nigerian employees of
Royal Dutch/Shell began a two-day "warning strike" October 7,
protesting long-planned company-wide downsizing. Shell
announced in March 2004 it planned to streamline its
operations in Nigeria. According to the press, oil union
workers oppose the offerered severance package and allege
Shell is skewing jobs in favor of expatriates. A Shell
External Relations representative in Port Harcourt confirmed
that there is no connection between the Shell strike and the
proposed NLC strike. He also confirmed that oil production
has not been affected.
BROWNE