KUWAITI RUMOR MILL ON OVERDRIVE REGARDING IMMINENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003391

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI AND INR - KIRSCH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV KU
SUBJECT: KUWAITI RUMOR MILL ON OVERDRIVE REGARDING IMMINENT
AL-SABAH LEADERSHIP CHANGE


Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: After two days of intense public speculation
about a possible change of senior Kuwaiti leadership, post is
unable to confirm persistent rumors that Kuwaiti Prime
Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad will be elevated to the post
of Crown Prince or Amir. The rumors followed a September 25
article in a prominent Kuwait daily quoting a senior Kuwaiti
ruling-family official who stated that important changes were
forthcoming that would "herald a new era." Several rumor
scenarios were circulating with the two most prominent
promoting Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad to the position of Amir in
the very near future. On September 26, a ruling family
member working in the Prime Minister's office told Poloff
that Shaykh Sabah would not seek to be elevated to either
Crown Prince or Amir out of respect for the Amir and the
Crown Prince. The official added that Shaykh Sabah was
"already the de facto ruler" of the country. End Summary.


2. (C) On September 25, in a front page article in respected
daily Al-Qabas, National Guard Chief Shaykh Salem Al-Ali
Al-Sabah said the ruling family was in the process of
announcing significant resolutions in the upcoming days and
that the time for change had come. He continued, saying "it
is a new phase for the ruling family, a phase long awaited by
the people and will be in favor of the country and its
stability." Shaykh Salem Al-Ali, who is the third highest
ranking GOK official in order of protocol, further compared
the ill-defined changes to the adoption of Kuwait's
Constitution in 1962. Shaykh Salem said the September 25
return of the Amir from the U.S., where he underwent medical
treatment, to Kuwait would signal the beginning of high-level
family consultations. (Comment: A photograph of the Amir,
upon his return to Kuwait, was printed in all major dailies
and showed, for the first time, a tired and grey-haired
Shaykh Jaber. End Comment.)


3. (SBU) News reports and Embassy contacts reported September
26 that the Al-Sabah ruling family planned a September 26 or
27 meeting of key family members, and rumors suggested that
decisions made in this meeting could affect the very top
positions in the GOK, to include the Amir and Crown Prince.
Several scenarios were circulating but the following were the
two most prominent:


4. (SBU) The first scenario: The Amir and Crown Prince step
down due to health concerns, Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah
Al-Ahmad becomes Amir and Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr.
Mohammed Al-Sabah becomes the new Crown Prince. Interior
Minister Shaykh Nawaf becomes the new Prime Minister and
Energy Minister Ahmed Al-Fahd becomes the Foreign Minister.


5. (SBU) The second scenario: The changes would be made in
phases beginning with the Amir appointing Prime Minister
Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad as Crown Prince, after current Crown
Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah steps down.
In the second phase, the Amir would step down and Shaykh
Sabah Al-Ahmad would then become Amir. National Guard Deputy
Chief Shaykh Mish'al Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah would be
expected to play a key role in the decision-making process
for choosing the rest of the Cabinet. All high-level GOK
reshuffling was expected to take place before the Parliament
convenes on October 26.


6. (U) An Al-Qabas reporter following the story on the 26th
told post that the Sabah family intends to give the younger
generation the opportunity to advance to senior leadership
positions including Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. Mohammed
Al-Sabah. (Note: FM Dr. Mohammed will be 49 on October 25th
and Energy Minister Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd is 41. End Note.)
The family, however, was expected to include in any new
government the current Defense Minister Shaykh Jaber
Al-Mubarak, from the Al-Hamad branch, to maintain balance
between the Al-Jaber and Al-Salem branches. He also
speculated that Kuwait might adopt a system of government
similar to that in Jordan where the Amir appoints the Prime
Minister from among qualified citizens.


7. (C) Poloff met September 26 with a ruling family member
who works closely with the Prime Minister. The official
categorically denied that Shaykh Sabah would even consider
such a move, out of respect for the Amir, his brother, and
the Crown Prince. He added that Shaykh Sabah was "already
the de facto ruler" of the country. Despite this denial,
local dailies reported September 27 that the Sabah family
would be meeting that day to discuss disagreements within the
family. Reversing the story again, local daily Al-Seyassah
reported on September 28 that the ruling family meeting was
not held and noted that informed sources speculate that if it
is held, there is nothing that warrants any changes in the
senior posts as previously reported.


8. (C) Comment: Despite rumors appearing in relatively
fringe media outlets such as Bahrain's Gulf Daily News and
mainstream news sources such as AFP and Radio Sawa, it
appears that there may not be any change in leadership at the
moment. That Shaykh Salem Al-Ali, third most senior in the
ruling family, would allow himself to be quoted in a
front-page news article, however, indicates that at the very
least, there are serious debates occurring within the ruling
family over the future leadership of the country. Further
clouding the picture is the fact that Crown Prince Shaykh
Saad is scheduled to depart Kuwait on September 28 to the
United Kingdom for a medical checkup.


9. (C) Comment Continued: Were it to occur now, a wholesale
power change would likely energize the political system and
would all but erase efforts by the National Assembly to grill
Ministers during the upcoming Parliamentary session. It
would certainly usher Kuwait into a period of more decisive
decision-making, relative to that of the current Amir.
LeBaron