Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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04KUWAIT1861 | 2004-06-13 13:05:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Kuwait |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 001861 |
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The ruling Al-Sabah family enjoys broad public support and legitimacy in the eyes of most Kuwaitis. Despite the presence of several hotly-debated issues, Kuwaitis remain content with their leadership and Government. Kuwaitis, from Sunna to Shia, ultra-wealthy to comfortable middle-class, are content overall with the GOK performance because the ruling family spreads enough wealth and allows enough freedoms to satisfy the general public while still clinging to the conservative patriarchal cultural norms of the Arabian Gulf. The slow pace of political change reflects the GOK's "don,t rock the boat" approach, which, while frustrating to vocal minorities both liberal and conservative, appears tolerable to the majority of Kuwaitis. END SUMMARY. (SBU) Some Things Money Can Buy -------------------------- 2. (SBU) The State of Kuwait has about 10 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and only about 913,000 citizens. This goes a long way in explaining the relative contentment of its citizenry. (NOTE: Given the higher petroleum-related profits of late, the Al-Shall Economic Report forecast the GOK to have collected oil revenues in the neighborhood of KD 1.3 billion (USD 4.3 billion) in the first two months of fiscal year 2004. END NOTE.) 3. (SBU) Kuwaitis are generally well-to-do and lead a life of relative ease. Citizens capitalize on the generous cradle-to-grave welfare package which includes free healthcare, education, a housing allowance, and almost certain employment. Although women are legally disadvantaged vis--vis their male counterparts, they can lead pampered lives, which leaves them generally less inclined to agitate for political equality.(Refs A & B) The GOK, while finding it increasingly difficult because of the long-term trend of an increasing population base and static oil revenues, can still afford to buy the confidence and acquiescence of its citizens. Unemployment, which the GOK reports to be around 3 1/2 percent--there are approximately 10,000 unemployed Kuwaiti nationals--is a growing but manageable issue. (U) A Political Voice -------------------------- 4. (SBU) Kuwaitis enjoy a relatively open political society and a limited representative democracy. These freedoms allow Kuwaitis to speak openly about almost any social or political issue short of criticizing the Amir and the ruling family--which few are likely to do anyway because of the necessity to curry favor with the Al-Sabah in this top-down patronage system. They have a parliamentary system which allows 137,000 male citizens to vote--and women's suffrage is being considered seriously. On balance, Kuwaitis have a sense that they have some cultural or political voice in their life situation. 5. (SBU) Even Shia*the religious minority who comprise a third of Kuwaitis--have gained in legal and social spheres in the last year.(Ref C) In March, the Shia community was permitted, for the first time, to stage a reenactment of the historic battle of Karbala on the holy occasion of Ashoura and was granted two time slots for Ashoura-related television programming. Shia have also recently succeeded in their long-standing efforts to obtain a Ja,afari Waqf--a religious endowment board governed by the Shiite school of jurisprudence. The GOK has established courts utilizing Shia jurisprudence for Shiites in personal status matters at all levels but the Court of Cassation (Supreme Court). (SBU) With Wasta For All -------------------------- 6. (C) The Al-Sabah ruling family, now led principally by PM Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad, routinely makes efforts to please all Kuwaitis. Often times, the GOK's policy pronouncements appear only intended to placate current critics rather than addressing the substance of the issue. -- The GOK reluctantly went along with the segregation of Kuwait University mandated by the legislature but permits public mixed-gender popmusic concerts. -- It reintroduced a bill to grant full political rights for women, while the Government's Ministry of Awqaf issued a fatwa supporting more stringent rules limiting the mixing of sexes at public concerts. -- It permitted the public reenactment of the historic battle of Karbala during Ashoura observances by the Shia community in early March but condoned the ten-year prison sentence for a Shiite activist who "defamed" Sunni Islam. 7. (C) Two complaints we hear about Al-Sabah governance are lack of leadership and influence-peddling, or "wasta." The GOK dispenses its goodwill to all, based on political popularity, cultural palatability, or wasta. The guiding principle in GOK leadership seems to be "don't rock the boat," a reasonable enough attitude on the part of a small, rich, weak country. While there is a growing public outcry against political corruption and wasta, many in this tribal-based society seem content to use the system to achieve their own goals. One liberal pundit remarked that since the late 1970s, when Shaykh Jabir became Amir, the GOK has pursued "backward," i.e. Islamist, policies. If PM Sabah had his way, he claimed, there would be a noticeable move to more liberal policies. But the PM must still work within the conservative system established by the Amir. He explained that average Kuwaitis wait to see in which direction the political winds are blowing to orient themselves, and the varying signals leave many in a state of political confusion. (U) The Latest Issues -------------------------- 8. (C) Several controversial political issues resonate within the population but none are enough to incite any threatening opposition to the government or to the comfortable Kuwaiti way of life. The hottest political issues of the moment are the proposal for granting women political rights and the proposed reduction in the number of electoral constituencies.(Refs E & D) The GOK proposed the first and seems to be reluctantly going along with the second. Few of those who hope the women's rights issue succeeds admit much confidence that the GOK will exert the pressure necessary to ensure its success. On the matter of the electoral constituencies, few people seem to have a keen sense of the possible significant changes involved. The MPs who seem most opposed to the proposals to reduce the number are those most dependent on tribal influence, which such a move would tend to dilute. 9. (SBU) Another key issue, that of the bidoon (short for "bidoon jinsiya" or without nationality, officially stateless Arabs residing in Kuwait, many with Kuwaiti relatives), of which there are approximately 100,000, spilled a lot of ink a year ago but is no longer on the front pages, after the GOK took some steps to alleviate their plight. There is no consensus on the matter: some consider the bidoon undocumented Kuwaitis, others see them as foreigners deliberately concealing their true nationality. Kuwaitis, in general, want to see a just settlement to this socially embarrassing issue, but just what a proper resolution would look like is unclear. Most understand that the GOK cannot afford to grant the current level of generous benefits of citizenship to such a large number of people. 10. (SBU) Some issues fail to ever gain traction. In April, some Islamists criticized the appointment of the new US Ambassador to Kuwait, Richard LeBaron, because of his service in Israel, but that outcry faded fast.(Ref F). The vast majority of Kuwaitis, even Islamists, positively accept the presence of the US in Kuwait and are tolerant, if not supportive, of US actions and intentions in Iraq. 11. (SBU) COMMENT: With its dispensation of wealth, relative freedoms, and functional political openness, the rule of the Al-Sabah family enjoys popular support. The 1990-91 Iraqi occupation strengthened Kuwaitis' sense of national identity. While there are many, on both sides of the political aisle, who would criticize individual GOK policies, at the end of the day they know on which side their bread is buttered. Until the money disappears or freedoms become repressed, the Al-Sabah are likely to enjoy sustained legitimacy and public support from the majority of Kuwaitis for the foreseeable future. URBANCIC |