(S/NF) SHAYKH NAWAF AL-AHMED: A NON-ENTITY TO

1. (S/NF) Ref A relayed a report from a well-connected
Kuwaiti source that Shaykh Nawaf al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah,
First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, has the
inside track to be a future Amir. The Bosnian ambassador
(protect), a Muslim who speaks fluent Arabic and enjoys warm
relations with senior members of the ruling family, flatly
told us March 29, quite unbidden, that Shaykh Nawaf "will be
the next Amir" after the current Amir, Crown Prince and Prime
Minister depart the scene. While this cannot be considered
confirmation, it warrants attention.



2. (S/NF) We stand by ref B assertion that Shaykh Nawaf,
half-brother to both the Amir and the Prime Minister, is
"neither highly educated nor particularly sophisticated, and
is not seen as a strong figure. Loyalty and bloodline appear
to be his selling points: he presents no threat to Shaykh
Sabah" the Prime Minister and de-facto ruler. Clearly,
however, it does not follow that Shaykh Nawaf "is not
generally seen as a prospective Amir." Indeed, lack of
ambition, along with loyalty and bloodline, may make him
attractive to the Prime Minister as a potential designated
successor.



3. (S/NF) It is hard not to notice that the Jaber branch of
the ruling al-Sabah family is tightening its grip on the
reins of power: besides bringing Shaykh Nawaf back into the
Cabinet, another half-brother, Shaykh Mishaal al-Ahmed
al-Jaber al-Sabah, has been named Deputy Chairman of the
National Guard (the job Shaykh Nawaf held until July). A
nephew, Shaykh Ahmed al-Fahd al-Jaber al-Sabah, is Minister
of Energy. It is reasonable to suppose that Shaykh Sabah,
who wields real power as Prime Minister, might be comfortable
with the notion of an Amir above politics and an empowered
(and competent) Prime Minister running the country. That
would be consistent with the scenario laid out in ref A, in
which Shaykh Sabah would become Amir, Shaykh Nawaf Crown
Prince, and Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. Mohammed Sabah
al-Salem al-Sabah, who holds a PhD in economics from Harvard,
would become Prime Minister. That arrangement would give the
Salem branch of the ruling family a high-level position (the
last two Amirs, and the current ailing Crown Prince, all come
from this branch. Since 1915, all the rulers of Kuwait have
come from either the Jaber or Salem branch.)



4. (C) Shaykh Nawaf is about 67 years old but looks younger
and appears to be in robust health.
URBANCIC