MORE ON THE MURKY MATTER OF WHO FIRED THE SHOTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 002165

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO CG
SUBJECT: MORE ON THE MURKY MATTER OF WHO FIRED THE SHOTS

REF: KIGALI 240915Z

Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) PolCouns spoke November 25 with Monuc Goma Head of
Office, and with a Monuc political officer in Kinshasa, to
get an update on Monuc's investigation of the rocket attack
into Rwanda, allegedly by the FDLR. Both Monuc sources said
that their initial investigation indicated that rather than
FDLR, the attack may have been perpetrated by a renegade Mai
Mai leader named Jackson Kasaveka. (Ambassador had been told
the same thing at a mini-CIAT meeting November 24.)
Jackson's group operates in the southern part of North Kivu,
but his is one of three Mai Mai groups known to respond to
Mbusa Nyamwisi, who controls northern North Kivu. Jackson's
Mai Mai are part of those who have been sporadically fighting
with ex-ANC elements in the Walikale/Masisi areas of North
Kivu for the last few months. (Nyamwisi's other two Mai Mai
groups both operate in his zone of control, the Grand North,
loosely in the area around Lake Albert.)


2. (C) Noel Membusi, head of the NGO International Crisis
Group, told PolCouns November 26 that during his November
22-25 visit to Beni and Butembu he observed new weaponry
among the Mai Mai in Butembu. He also reported that
businessmen and some FARDC military officers are discussing
Nyamwisi's improved ties to Uganda, which supposedly include
several recent deliveries of weapons, including to Jackson's
group.


3. (C) Comment: Nyamwisi certainly has been increasingly
disgruntled with Kinshasa over the last few months,
particularly as Kinshasa has apparently begun improving its
contacts with Nyamwisi's rival, Eugene Serufuli. Nyamwisi
has made no secret of his unhappiness with having been given
the minor regional affairs portfolio instead of the much more
prestigious foreign minister position to which he had
aspired. We doubt, however, that Nyamwisi would have ordered
Jackson to fire on Rwandan territory, although it is
certainly possible that Jackson, a real wildcard, might have
taken such an action on his own, possibly to test one of his
new pieces of equipment.


4. (U) Bujumbura minimize considered.
MEECE