MLC OFFICIAL DESCRIBES INTERNAL TENSIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 002055

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014
TAGS: KDEM PGOV CG
SUBJECT: MLC OFFICIAL DESCRIBES INTERNAL TENSIONS,
ELECTIONS STRATEGY


Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.5 B and D


1. (C) SUMMARY: A top official from vice-president
Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC movement reported tensions between
Bemba and his number two, Olivier Kamitatu, and described MLC
efforts to court potential voters in eastern Congo. Rumors
of strained relations between Bemba and Kamitatu are nothing
new. Kamitatu may be thinking about a Presidency run, but we
think it unlikely Kamitatu will jump ship now, but if and
when he ever does, it would be a serious blow to the MLC.
END SUMMARY.


Grumbles in the MLC
--------------

2. (C) Thomas Luhaka, spokesman for Jean-Pierre Bemba's Congo
Liberation Movement's (MLC) and leader of its parliamentary
group, told poloff November 2 that relations between Bemba
and Olivier Kamitatu are strained. (Note: The latter, MLC
secretary-general since 1999 and National Assembly president

SIPDIS
since 2003, is one of the more widely-respected public
figures in the DRC. End Note.) Kamitatu skipped a meeting
of top MLC leaders on November 1, and told Luhaka he thinks
Bemba is upset with Kamitatu over the "Ghonda affair."
(Note: Antoine Ghonda, a long-time friend of Kamitatu, was
the DRC's foreign minister until July 2004, when Bemba fired
him for being more loyal to President Kabila than to Bemba.
Ghonda took a job as one of Kabila's ambassadors-at-large a
few weeks later. End Note.) Kamitatu also believes Bemba is
targeting Kamitatu allies within the MLC such as former
agriculture minister Justin Kangundu, who heads the party's
structure in Bandundu province. Bemba and Kamitatu are
likewise at odds over who should head the party's structure
in Kinshasa province. Luhaka speculated that Kamitatu's
father Cleophas Kamitatu is discouraging his son from
breaking with Bemba by explaining that for now it makes
better sense to remain "in the game" than outside it. (Note:
The elder Kamitatu, a well-known politician in his own
right, is a member of the unarmed political opposition but is
generally regarded as aligned with the MLC. End Note.)


3. (C) Continuing in the same vein, Luhaka said that he
himself is frustrated with Bemba because the MLC leader only
respects those who are independently wealthy, such as public
works minister Jose Endundo and planning minister Alexis
Thambwe. Traditionally, there have been no real political
parties in the DRC, only "fan clubs." Many within the MLC
regard the party as little more than a Bemba fan club Luhaka
said, and Bemba himself treats less well-off MLC members as
if they are merely hired help. Bemba works very closely with
Endundo on the electoral campaign, for example, but keeps
Luhaka in the dark. One sore point within MLC ranks lately
has been the issue of MLC politicians printing T-shirts with
their own faces on them. Bemba recently ordered 40,000 bolts
of cloth with his own face--and tolerated shirts with
Endundo's face, but was angered when he heard Kamitatu and
Luhaka wanted to do the same, and refused to listen to
Luhaka's argument that others in the MLC needed to build
their own base of support in order to be electable. Former
president Mobutu deliberately sought to keep his lieutenants
dependent on him personally, Luhaka commented, and Bemba
appears to want to do the same.


4. (C) On a more personal level, although Bemba makes
$200,000 a month and has a small fleet of cars, he failed to
honor his promise to help Luhaka buy a used vehicle for
transport around town. Luhaka bought an $8000 truck on
credit, and after several months waiting for Bemba to come
through, raided party funds to pay for it. Similarly, Luhaka
is annoyed at having to vacate his centrally-located
apartment by November 9, because Bemba will not pay to renew
the lease. Instead, Luhaka may have to move to one of the
outer neighborhoods such as Binza, which is "less secure."
In short, Luhaka said, Bemba does not "take care of his
troops."


Bemba's Elections Strategy
--------------

5. (C) Commenting on elections strategy, Luhaka said that in
rural areas where the population is less educated and
informed, ethnicity will be a key factor and candidates will
need to sway local "decision-influencers" such as traditional
chiefs. In urban areas, candidates can make a more direct
appeal to voters, who are willing to judge candidates more on
the issues. This is the case in Bukavu, for example, where
Gen. Mbuza Mabe (from Equateur) has managed to become
popular, and whose citizens already appreciate the fact that
Bemba sent MLC troops to the region. Another part of MLC
strategy in the east is to court potential supporters by
addressing specific complaints (e.g. lifting the state
monopoly on insurance providers to allow "SCAR," an
eastern-based company, to compete) and promising to repair
basic infrastructure in the area. While some in the
Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) were upset at Bemba's
politicking in the Kivus, "many" in the RCD have given up on
the idea of winning anything through elections and are
telling their colleagues to support the MLC. Luhaka
confirmed that Bemba met with North Kivu governor Eugene
Serufuli who, in contrast to RCD leader Azarias Ruberwa, has
made a serious effort to connect with the local population
there. As for opposition figure Etienne Tshisekedi, leader
of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party,
he is popular in Kinshasa and in the Kasais but, noted
Luhaka, but is less well-known among younger Congolese, has
only a weak party machine these days, lacks finances, and is
in questionable health.


Drafting a Constitution
--------------

6. (C) Asked about Senate efforts to draft a constitution,
Luhaka said the current draft calls for a president who is
directly elected but weak, coupled with an indirectly-elected
prime minister. Bemba wants a strong, directly-elected
president, whereas Kamitatu favors an indirectly-elected
president. As for the merits of a federal versus unitary
system of government, Luhaka said there has been no real
debate yet, but added that people in the east, especially
businessmen, want to maintain the autonomy they gained under
the RCD. Under that regime, forty percent of all revenues
collected by the authorities was "remitted" to the provinces.
No one in the area wants to return to war, but easterners
see the central government as nothing more than a predator,
and will want to maintain their autonomy.


COMMENT
--------------

7. (C) The MLC has long stood out in Congolese politics for
its relative cohesion and the acumen of its leaders,
especially Kamitatu. Rumors of Bemba-Kamitatu tensions
(stemming from Bemba's jealousy of Kamitatu's talent and
prestige) are nothing new, but it is unusual for a highly
visible Bemba loyalist such as Luhaka to speak of them and
express his own frustrations. Luhaka may simply have been
"fishing" in an attempt to gauge USG support or lack thereof
for Bemba. Kamitatu may well be weighing the prospects for
his own at the Presidency. Not coincidentally, his expressed
preference for "indirect" election of the President could
play well for him, given his current role as National
Assembly President. We think it unlikely Kamitatu will jump
ship however, but if and when he ever does, it would be a
serious blow to the MLC. END COMMENT.
MEECE