OPPOSITION FIGURE TSHISEKEDI KEEPING HIS OPTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001999

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014
TAGS: PGOV CG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FIGURE TSHISEKEDI KEEPING HIS OPTIONS
OPEN


Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.5 B and D


1. (C) SUMMARY: A close adviser to opposition figure Etienne
Tshisekedi, leader of the UDPS party, confirmed that the UDPS

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is no longer allied with the RCD-Goma and maintains informal
links with Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC. In our view, while a
Tshisekedi-Bemba alliance during the upcoming elections is

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certainly possible, we are less likely to see President
Kabila teaming up with the UDPS leader. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Jean-Joseph Mukendi, a close adviser to opposition
figure Etienne Tshisekedi told poloff October 27 that
Tshisekedi's political party, the Union for Democracy and

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Social Progress (UDPS),has not had a formal alliance with
the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD-Goma) movement since
late 2003. The UDPS does support RCD-Goma views on certain
issues, however, such as nationality. Tshisekedi is also in
touch with members of Jean-Pierre Bemba's Congo Liberation
Movement (MLC),and in fact Bemba recently invited the UDPS
leader to a formal dinner, although Tshisekedi declined. The
UDPS expects upcoming elections, set for June 2005, to be all
about alliance-building, and is keeping its options open for
now.


3. (C) Mukendi said that although there is still a continuing
dispute over UDPS legality under the new law on political
parties, adopted in early 2004, it is not a serious challenge
and lower-level authorities have not harassed UDPS members at
all. He added that the UDPS' main agenda item for the near
future is to hold a party congress in February 2005, and
Tshisekedi does not plan to travel anywhere before then.

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4. (C) COMMENT: Mukendi's view on UDPS-RCD relations
contradicts what senior RCD figures have said recently, that
the old alliance is very much alive and well. In UDPS eyes,
that partnership died in 2003 after the ex-belligerents
failed to uphold an unwritten "gentleman's agreement,"
whereby Tshisekedi would become vice-president in the
transitional government. The MLC is a much more attractive
partner in terms of winning votes, and if he thought he could
win, Jean-Pierre Bemba could probably accept being prime
minister under a Tshisekedi presidency. An alliance with
President Joseph Kabila is a more awkward fit, because the
age difference is more pronounced (Tshisekedi is 70-plus,
Kabila is in his early 30s) and both would want to be
president. END COMMENT.
MEECE