FARDC ON THE MOVE IN EASTERN DRC

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001753

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR CASC CG
SUBJECT: FARDC ON THE MOVE IN EASTERN DRC

REF: KINSHASA C 1720

Classified By: Poloff Meghan Moore for Reasons 1.5 B and D


1. (C) Summary. The FARDC recently sent up to 2,000 troops to
South Kivu and has retaken control of a number of villages in
the area of Kalehe and Minova without facing significant
resistance. North Kivu, South Kivu and Orientale regional
military commanders were called in to Kinshasa to discuss
possible plans to launch a three-prong attack on Nkunda. End
summary.

FARDC on the Move
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2. (C) Over the past two weeks, the FARDC sent up to 2,000
troops to S. Kivu (mostly from the 52nd ex-MLC brigade based
in Gbadolite, with some ex-FAC elements from Kinshasa and
Bas-Congo). By September 12, S. Kivu Military Regional
Commander BG Mabe had retaken control of a number of villages
in the area of Kalehe and Minova without facing significant
resistance. A Western journalist told poloffs that the Mai
Mai commander who captured Minova said he 'walked right in.'
On September 15, MONUC military sources reported that troops
loyal to Nkunda had vacated positions in Minova a week prior
to Mabe's advance. Nkunda's troops, who took their weapons,
probably moved northwest towards Hombo (located on the
Walikale-Buakvu road) in N. Kivu. There are unconfirmed
reports that Nkunda is in the Masisi area. On September 11, a
presidential advisor told polcouns that General Kisempia had
given BG Mabe permission to advance to the N. Kivu/ S. Kivu
border, but ordered him to stay out of N. Kivu for now. On
September 11, there were unconfirmed reports that FARDC
troops had deployed south and east from Lubutu, Maniema
towards Walikale. (Comment: FARDC brigades located in Lubutu
are under the control of General Padiri of the 9th Military
Region, based in Kisangani, in large due to the incompetence
of the Maniema Militiary Regional Commander BG Widi Mbuilu.
End comment.) There have been low-level skirmishes for
several days in the area of Walikale in N. Kivu between local
Mai Mai and Tutsi ex-ANC elements (who have been integrated
into the 9th Military Region, and fall under the control of
Padiri),and movements of Mai Mai and possibly Interahamwe
elements near Butembo (septel).

Eastern Generals Recalled to HQ
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3. (C) N. Kivu, S. Kivu and Orientale regional military
commanders (Mabe, Obedi and Padiri) were recalled to Kinshasa
to discuss possible plans to launch a three-prong attack on
Nkunda. Padiri arrived on September 12 and was scheduled to
return to Walikale September 15 to help mediate the Mai Mai
problem. Obedi and Mabe arrived in Kinshasa September 13, and
were reportedly still in town on September 15. DATT told
poloff that although the FARDC would like to replace Obedi
for incompetence and lack of loyalty and Mabe for talking to
the press without cleared talking points, the two will
probably remain in place for now. A source in the Presidency,
however, speculated to Ambassador and DCM that Mabe will
retain his job, and that Obedi may be replaced with an
officer affiliated with the Kabila faction from the Bas-Congo
Military Region.

Comment
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4. (C) It is unclear why Obedi agreed to come to Kinshasa
(after he refused twice over the past few months) or what the
FARDC plans to do with him now that he is here. He will face
tough questions about his loyalty and which of his units the
FARDC can count on in a fight against Nkunda. (Nkunda relied
heavily on former RCD/G troops from North Kivu in his Bukavu
campaign, and Obedi admitted to poloff and DATT that although
he is loyal to Kinshasa, 'his troops' may or may not follow
his orders.) Obedi continues to be a serious problem for
Kinshasa. On the one hand, he is widely seen as at best
Nkunda's willing accomplice and Rwanda's dupe, and at worst a
traitor. On the other hand, replacing him could anger N. Kivu
Governor Serufuli, VP Ruberwa, Rwanda and/or trigger an
Nkunda-led offensive on Goma. Replacing Mabe could prove to
be equally difficult as the FARDC does not have a good
alternate in the wings, and because he has become very
popular in both S. Kivu and Kinshasa for his decisive action
and public image. Ruberwa's extreme dislike for Mabe and the
FARDC's distrust of Obedi may lead to their mutual dismissal,
but for now, the general status quo is likely to continue.
MEECE