INCREASED TENSIONS WITHIN RCD EX-REBEL MOVEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001578

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL CG
SUBJECT: INCREASED TENSIONS WITHIN RCD EX-REBEL MOVEMENT


Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.5 B and D


1. (C) SUMMARY: Recent events have highlighted internal
divisions within the RCD ex-rebel movement. RCD "radicals,"
including virtually all the Rwandophones in the movement,
want to quit or at least boycott the transitional government.
They have been pressuring "moderates" and other RCD members
to travel to Goma, to particpate in memorial services for
victims of the August 13 massacre of refugees in Burundi, and
also to attend a general meeting of the party on August 23.
We are examining the possible implications of a formal split
in the RCD. It would not be in our interest to allow the
internal divisions of one ex-belligerent group to hold up the
entire transition. END SUMMARY.


Radicals vs. Moderates
--------------

2. (C) The Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) ex-rebel
movement is facing a serious internal crisis. "Radicals" who
want to put the transition on hold (and possibly quit the
government) are increasingly at odds with "moderates," who
believe the RCD should stick with the transition and remain
in government, despite the difficulties they have
encountered. Broadly, this cleavage corresponds to the
group's ethnic makeup. Virtually all RCD leaders of
Rwandophone origin are in the "radical" camp, which includes
parliamentary group leader Moise Nyarugabo and former RCD
security-service chief Bizima Karaha. In contrast, there are
no prominent Rwandophones in the "moderate" camp, which
includes figures such as RCD senior senator Dr. Emile Ilunga,
education minister Joseph Mudumbi, defense minister
Jean-Pierre Ondekane and economy minister Emile Ngoy. It is
unclear where RCD president Azarias Ruberwa stands. Since
the August 13 massacre in Burundi his rhetoric has been
"radical," but one RCD source speculated that he is a hostage
(literally),and Ruberwa's diplomatic adviser vigorously
denied on August 19 that the RCD was on the verge of quitting
the transitional government.


Location, Location, Location
--------------

3. (C) Over the past several days, the radicals worked hard
to persuade or strongarm RCD moderates and fence-sitters into
traveling to Goma, ostensibly to participate in weeklong
mourning ceremonies for the victims of the August 13 massacre
in Burundi, and also to attend a general meeting of the party
on August 23. Multiple sources reported that RCD officials
in Goma and Bukavu purchased airline tickets for their
colleagues in Kinshasa, to prevent them from using lack of
money to travel as an excuse. According to two separate
sources, RCD authorities in Goma tried to physically restrain
Mudumbi and one other official to prevent them from returning
to Kinshasa, but they successfully bullied their way through.
(Note: As of August 22, seven RCD ministers and
vice-ministers were either in or en route to Goma. They
were: telecoms minister Gertrude Kitembo, womens affairs
minister Faida Mwangilwa, parastatals minister Celestin
Vunabandi, labor minister Jean-Pierre Lola Kisanga, budget
vice-minister Tresor Kapuku, international cooperation
vice-minister Christian Kambinga, and interior vice-minister
Tharcisse Habarugira. Four remained in Kinshasa: Mudumbi,
Ondekane, Ngoy, and public works vice-minister Baudouin Banza
Mukalay. End Note.)


4. (C) Ilunga told poloffs August 19 that he himself had
received four phone calls that day, the first from "a person
in Kigali" (NFI),urging him to travel to Goma. He had
refused to go several days earlier, because he thought it was
"a ruse." The radicals are planning something, he said, but
the rest of the RCD is in the dark. Ilunga, who was RCD
president approximately 1999-2000, explained on August 18 the
importance of physical location: when RCD leaders were
headquartered in Goma, they had to support whatever Kigali
advised, out of fear for their personal safety. Kigali's
influence has lessened since the RCD moved to Kinshasa,
however--beyond Rwanda's reach. This distance enabled other
RCD leaders to resist Ruberwa's demand in June that the
movement quit the government. South Kivu vice-governor
Thomas Nziratimana told poloff August 22 that the party's
leadership, aka the "College des Fondateurs," is scheduled
meet at mid-day on August 23, after which Ruberwa will hold a
press conference.


COMMENT
--------------

5. (C) If the "radical" wing decides to quit the government
or suspend their participation, it could definitively split
the RCD. We are examining the possible implications of this
and will report septel. It would not be in our interest to
allow the internal divisions of one ex-belligerent group to
hold up the entire transition. END COMMENT.
MEECE