RUMORS MOUNT OF PENDING GOVERNMENT ATTACK AGAINST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001365

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL CG
SUBJECT: RUMORS MOUNT OF PENDING GOVERNMENT ATTACK AGAINST
NKUNDA


Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Eastern regional military commanders were
ordered to return unexpectedly early to their posts July 21,
cutting short follow-on meetings scheduled for Kinshasa.
Upon reaching Bukavu, General Mabe immediately called his
field commanders in and, according to Monuc sources, briefed
them on the government's battle plan before dispatching them
to their duty stations. Similar briefings reportedly took
place in Kindu and Kisangani, where government troops also
are concentrated. Monuc confirms that large numbers of
civilians are fleeing Minova as rumors circulate that Nkunda
is rallying his forces for a preemptive attack. Monuc Bukavu
believes that government troops could attack Nkunda's
positions in Minova and Kalehe this weekend. End Summary.

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The Word Is Given?
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2. (C) Developments over the last two days suggest that the
long-postponed attack by government forces against rebel
general Nkunda's positions could be coming soon, possibly
even this weekend. Two days of briefings for all the eastern
regional military commanders (except N. Kivu's General Obed,
who declined to attend) in Kinshasa concluded July 20 with a
meeting with President Kabila. The commanders were then
scheduled to have two days of follow-on meetings in Kinshasa,
but they were precipitously dispatched to their posts July

21. Monuc sources say that S. Kivu regional commander Mbuza
Mabe immediately called his field commanders to Bukavu for a
three-hour briefing on the battle plan before dispatching
them to the field; we believe that commanders in Kindu and
Kisangani did likewise. Some troops (no numbers available at
this time) began moving out of Bukavu toward the north early
July 22.

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Rumors Abound As Civilians Flee
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3. (C) For several days there have been persistent rumors
that Nkunda is mobilizing his forces (now reportedly
numbering somewhere between 5,000-10,000) for a preemptive
strike south, toward Bukavu. As of midday July 22, Monuc has
seen no evidence of such movement, and Monuc sources in
contact with forward FADRC elements stationed near Kalehe and
Minova report that the FADRC is relaxed and reports no
activity. Partly in response to fears of an imminent attack
and partly to escape the apparently increasing depredations
of Nkunda's troops, hundreds of civilians are confirmed by
Monuc to be fleeing Minova, many across the lake in small
fishing boats to Idjwe Island where they have family. At the
same time, Monuc is in contact with several officers
nominally under either Nkunda's or Obed's command, who say
they will not obey orders from either general, but rather
intend to take no action unless a genocide begins against
Rwandaphones. Press reports continue that government troops
are moving down from their stations in Beni (northern N.
Kivu) and Kindu (in Maniema province),but we have no
confirmation of such movement.

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Comment
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4. (C) Trying to make sense out of the chaotic East is, as
usual, dicing with circumstance. However, the unexpectedly
rapid return of the commanders to the east and their briefing
of the field elements does suggest that a decision to take
the fight to the enemy may finally have been made. We do not
believe, however, that Nkunda is preparing to launch any
southern movement. Doing so would mean confronting directly
the bulk of the government forces which lie between Nkunda's
sites and Bukavu, and would seem to yield very little return
for the cost, particularly since we find it hard to believe
that he could have 10,000 troops at his disposal. Such a
number would require virtually all the forces in the 8th
military region (Obed's troops) and a significant number of
Serufuli's militia as well. Monuc photographs of Kalehe show
that Nkunda's people have gone to considerable trouble to
fortify four different sites in that area, including
reinforcing (possibly) with some sort of artillery. He seems
much more likely, if pressed, to move laterally from Minova
to Kalehe and try to hold the ground there -- or, more
threateningly, to fall back toward Goma, a move which would,
in every sense of the word, take the fight to N. Kivu
Governor Serufuli who so far has maintained at least a
pretense (albeit dubious) of neutrality. We believe that if
and when an attack begins, if the government forces have any
sort of success at all in Minova (which is far from certain),
Nkunda is most likely to break for Goma in an attempt to
force Obed or Serufuli to assist him, or at least facilitate
his escape in the general melee.
SCOTT