DEPARTING BELGIAN AMBASSADOR'S TOUR D'HORIZON WITH

S E C R E T KINSHASA 001299

SIPDIS

ROME FOR EMBASSY VATICAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6
TAGS: PGOV PINR CG BE VT
SUBJECT: DEPARTING BELGIAN AMBASSADOR'S TOUR D'HORIZON WITH
CHARGE


Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) During TDY Charge Gerald Scott's July 9 courtesy call
on outgoing Belgian Ambassador Renier Nyskens, Nyskens
stressed the need to maintain cohesion within the
International Committee to Assist the Transition (CIAT) as
many senior members will be rotating this summer and some
elements within (and without) the transition government could
see this an opportunity to create daylight between CIAT
members to advance their positions. Most importantly, the
international community must continue its proactive
solidarity.


2. (S) Looking to the future, Nyskens mused that although
several months ago President Kabila was widely considered the
potential hands-down winner, if elections were held today he
would be humiliated. Indeed, he would be wise promptly to
declare that he has no intention of running, lest his
opponents begin to more actively exploit his four potentially
crippling factors (age (only 33, he likely will be declared
too young to run for office),association with some of the
Kisangani massacre perpetrators, dubious parentage (the
mother issue) and increasing corruption). Taking Kabila out
of the picture, however, leaves a vacuum and nature,
particularly Congolese nature, abhors a vacuum. A
post-Kabila-candidacy DRC will encourage military aspirations
to power (via coup) and will feed national instability such
as we are already seeing in the East and as regional power
players move to strengthen their positions. Nyskens said
that his Embassy has been studying the question of "if not
Kabila, then who?" and has not been able to produce a single
candidate who was popular, had the necessary military support
and did not suffer from a reputation for debilitating
corruption or other unfortunate history. The MLC's Olivier
Kamitatu is a possibility somewhere down the road -- he is
popular, intelligent, capable, and not considered corrupt --
and Cleophas Kamitatu's generosity in officially recognizing
and adopting the son of his wife and her Belgian chauffeur
presumably eliminates the possibility that Kamitatu's
parentage could be held against him, a la Kabila. The
danger, however, is that VP Bemba would have Kamitatu killed
if he perceived him as a genuine threat to his position, so
Kamitatu needs sheltering for a while. Another possible
candidate (but again in the future, not in this election)
would be the MLC's Secretary General, Thomas Luhaka.


3. (S) Responding to Scott's reminiscences about actors in
the Mobutu period, Nyskens noted that a number of Congo's
former political power players have continued to agitate for
a role in the transition -- and post-transition as well. The
Ambassador said the three we mentioned (Minister of
Scientific Research Kamanda Wa Kamanda, former Prime Minister
Kengo wa Dondo, and Monseignor Monsengwo) were generally
deemed unacceptable by the Belgians -- though they might have
some temporary role, well short of their aspirations. Of the
three, Monsengwo is perhaps the most successful, having just
been elected to head the Congolese Episcopal Conference,
although Nyskens added that Monsengwo won this honor (for the
third time) mostly because the Cardinal is almost completely
crippled by debilitating diabetes. Nyskens also said that
the Vatican has made clear to Monsengwo that he should limit
his grasping for a role, not least since the Church would be
deeply embarrassed should Monsengwo's "second family" living
in Belgium become public knowledge.


4. (C) Comment: The Belgians remain perhaps the most astute
and well-informed of all Congo watchers, and Nyskens, who has
been particularly well connected, will be missed. He has a
penchant, however, for firm pronouncements on Congolese
developments that are not always borne out. We share his
basic assessment that Kabila has been weakened as a
presidential candidate, but believe it is too soon to
handicap the eventual electoral field. Indeed, Nyskens's own
comment that absent Kabila there are few viable and
supportable options suggests that it is premature to write
Kabila's political obituary. Recent abortive coup attempts
and even the trouble in the east could reflect a growing
perception among Congolese power players that Kabila is
weakening. If so, we can expect more frequent and more
serious tests of his authority in coming months.
SCOTT