NEPAL: NO CONSENSUS ON NEW PM YET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000889

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2014
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: NO CONSENSUS ON NEW PM YET

REF: KATHMANDU 880

Classified By: CDA JANET BOGUE. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Three days after the May 7 resignation of Prime
Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa (Ref A),the search for his
successor continues, with no clear contender in the lead.
King Gyanendra appears to be sending out simultaneous and
duplicative "feelers" to the leaders of the two largest
parties--thereby adding to the already substantial levels of
mistrust each harbors against him. Nepali Congress President
G.P. Koirala and Nepali Congress (Democratic) President Sher
Bahadur Deuba reportedly have agreed to meet and discuss
possibilities for reuniting their two factions. The parties
wisely have decided to decline invitations to meet with the
King separately, insisting instead on a joint meeting in
which leaders of all five protesting parties are present. We
believe this show of solidarity may be short-lived, however.
With each passing day that the Prime Ministerial slot remains
empty and reports of back-channel Palace communications with
individual contenders emerge, we expect more cracks in the
multi-party alliance to surface. End summary.

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WHO'S ON FIRST?
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2. (SBU) The May 7 resignation of Prime Minister Surya
Bahadur Thapa (Ref A) has sent the already hard-working
Kathmandu rumor mill into predictable overdrive with
feverish, if not fact-based, speculation about whom King
Gyanendra would appoint as his successor. Over the weekend,
breathless reports surfaced that the King had sent a car to
pick up Nepali Congress President and former Prime Minister
G.P. Koirala from his home in Morang District for an audience
at the Royal Palace. (By Sunday, the car had been
transformed by rumor to an Army helicopter.) As of May 10,
however, party sources confirmed that Koirala and other
members of the five-party alliance had decided not to meet
the King separately.


3. (C) UK Ambassador Keith Bloomfield told Charge on May 7
that the King had indicated he would appoint Madhav Nepal,
General Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist (UML),provided that Nepal would make
several commitments, including bringing the Maoists back to
the negotiating table. (Note: The King gave no similar
indication when he met with Charge and Deputy Assistant
Secretary for South Asian Affairs Donald Camp the same day.

SIPDIS
See septel for details.) On May 10 Dr. Suresh Chalise, a
Koirala confidant, told us that the King had sent "feelers"
to the Nepali Congress President to accept the premiership as
well. According to Chalise, Koirala was unsure whether to
pursue the overture, in part because of lingering mistrust of
the King's true motives. The Palace and the Royal Nepal Army
might be setting Koirala up for failure in order to "tarnish
his historical image," Chalise suggested. At the same time,
members of Koirala's party, who have their own aspirations
for the premiership, are discouraging him from responding to
the "feeler," Chalise said. He identified Ram Chandra Poudel,
a Nepali Congress Central Committee member and former Deputy
Prime Minister under Koirala's last government, as one such
naysayer, alleging darkly that Poudel was being backed by
India. Koirala knows that the King has made similar
overtures to the UML's Nepal, and perhaps to the UML's
second-ranked K.P. Oli as well, Chalise noted, a situation
that only adds to the atmosphere of mistrust and suspicion.
The King's overture to Nepal is unlikely to be sincere, he
said hopefully, since the Palace dislikes the UML leader for
multiple reasons, including his refusal to serve on the panel
investigating the royal massacre in June 2001.

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DEUBA STILL IN THE RUNNING
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4. (C) If Koirala were appointed Prime Minister, he would
give the UML the post of Deputy Prime Minister, Chalise
asserted. (According to Chalise, Nepal had told Koirala he
would accept such a position in an all-party government one
month ago. It is unclear if he would still be willing to
settle for the number two slot--especially if he is getting
"feelers" of his own.) Koirala could even accept long-time
rival and Nepali Congress (Democratic) President Sher Bahadur
Deuba into his Cabinet, Chalise declared, although with
somewhat less conviction, noting that Deuba retains prime
ministerial aspirations of his own. He reported that Deuba
had offered to unify the two parties provided that Koirala
would support him as prime minister. Although such a
prospect is highly unlikely, Koirala has nonetheless agreed
to meet Deuba to discuss matters. (Note: As far as we are
aware, this would be the first meeting between the two
Congress rivals since the factions split in 2002. End note.)


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PROTESTS, STRIKES PERSIST
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5. (C) Thapa's resignation notwithstanding, the parties'
protests against the Palace continued, if in somewhat muted
tone, over the weekend, marking five full weeks of near-daily
rallies and demonstrations. The "bandh," or general strike,
called by the five-party alliance for May 11 and 12,
moreover, remains in effect. However, in an effort to create
a more conducive environment for compromise, Chalise said,
Koirala has instructed his party workers to drop all slogans
referring to a republic or calling for an end to the
monarchy. The month-long protests have made the average
party activist far more militant, Chalise observed; during
mass meetings last week the crowd shouted warnings to party
leaders not to betray the movement by "selling out" to the
King. Should Koirala respond to the King's overture, he must
persuade more radicalized members of his party's student wing
that he is not attempting to betray his purported democratic
convictions to gain the premiership. Insisting on a joint
meeting with leaders of all five agitating parties will help
reassure any doubters, Chalise concluded.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) We agree with Chalise that the King would have to
overcome his well-known distrust of the UML in general and
Madhav Nepal in particular if he is contemplating making the
UML General Secretary the next Prime Minister. It is also
true that the King would have to overcome his well-known
dislike of G.P. Koirala--and overlook Koirala's well-earned
reputation for corruption--if he is thinking of choosing the
Nepali Congress President. As long as the King continues to
make separate overtures, as he appears to be doing, to the
leaders of the largest parties, it will be difficult for
these chronically self-interested and short-sighted
politicians to arrive at a consensus. The parties' decision
to insist on a joint meeting seems wise to us, reducing the
chance of the usual conflicting versions of one-on-one
meetings between party leaders and the King produced by both
sides. This solidarity may well waver, however, the longer
the much-prized post of Prime Minister remains vacant and the
"feelers" continue. The King knows this, and may be betting
that the party leaders' mistrust of one another and desire
for partisan advantage will prompt one--if not all of
them--to break ranks and try to cut a deal.

BOGUE