NEPALI KING PARLEYS WITH SOME PARTIES, PUT OFF BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 000790

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPALI KING PARLEYS WITH SOME PARTIES, PUT OFF BY
OTHERS AS PROTESTS CONTINUE

REF: KATHMANDU 757 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CDA ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) As daily anti-government protests continued into
their third week, on April 22 King Gyanendra met individually
with leaders of three parties, including Nepali Congress
(Democratic) President Sher Bahadur Deuba, to explore
possibilities for resolving the political impasse. According
to a Deuba confidant, the King seemed willing to consider a
change in government, but apparently "had not yet made up his
mind" whether to choose Deuba as interim Prime Minister.
Leaders of the two largest political parties, the Communist
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) and Nepali
Congress, however, have rejected for now the King's offer to
meet. A UML source justified his party's refusal on the
basis of party leadership fears that meeting the King
now--with the "illegitimate" government of Prime Minister
Surya Bahadur Thapa still in power--would be misinterpreted
as a sell-out by the UML's radicalized youth wing. A Palace
confidant told Charge he expects talks with the UML and
Nepali Congress to take place within the next few days. Now
that the King has apparently decided to take up the parties
on their demand for talks, it is important that the political
leadership show some flexibility and unity of purpose and
principle. End summary.

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KING CHATS WITH SOME PARTY LEADERS . . .
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2. (SBU) As daily anti-government protests continued into
their third week, King Gyanendra held separate conversations
on April 22 with the leaders of the Nepali Congress
(Democratic) Party, the National Democratic Party (in Nepali,
Rastriya Prajatantra Party or RPP),and the Nepal Sadbhavana
Party (Mandal) to explore possibilities for resolving the
political impasse. (Note: There are two rival factions
claiming legitimacy as the "real" Sadbhavana Party. The
Mandal faction is the smaller, royalist faction. The King
refuses to meet with the larger faction, which is part of the
coalition of five parties now protesting against the
Government, because it has not been recognized by the
Election Commission as a legitimate party. End note.) An
offer by the King to meet with the heads of the Nepali
Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist
Leninist (UML),and the Peasants and Workers Party was
rejected by the parties' leaders. Local media reporting the
King's meetings on April 23 speculated that a change in
government is imminent, with Nepali Congress (Democratic)
Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba the new heir apparent.


3. (C) RPP Spokeswoman Roshan Karki confirmed that
Pashupati SJB Rana, her party's Chairman, met with the King
on April 22. According to Karki, Rana urged the King to
dismiss the government of current Prime Minister (and RPP
member) Surya Bahadur Thapa and form an all-party government
to pursue dialogue with the Maoists. Karki dismissed
speculation that the King would appoint Deuba to head such a
government. The King labeled Deuba as "incompetent" when he
dismissed him as Prime Minister in October 2002, she
recalled. For the King to reappoint Deuba would be
tantamount to admitting he made a mistake in dismissing him
in the first place--something the monarch is unlikely to do.
(Note: The King had acknowledged to Ambassador Malinowski in
his April 20 meeting that he would have to "eat crow" if he
were to reappoint Deuba, but indicated he did not consider
that a political liability. End note.) Karki also suggested
that K.V. Ranjan, former Indian Ambassador to Nepal who is
apparently in Kathmandu on an unofficial visit, may play a
significant role. (Note: Ranjan's last visit to Kathmandu
immediately preceded the dismissal of the government of
Lokendra Bahadur Chand and the appointment of Surya Bahadur
Thapa. Rightly or wrongly, most Nepalis saw "the Indian
hand" in that sequence of events.)


4. (C) According to Nepali Congress (Democratic) Central
Committee member Dr. Minendra Rijal, Deuba's meeting with the
King on April 22 left the former Prime Minister believing
that the King "had not yet made up his mind" about whom to
choose to head a possible new government. For example, the
King reportedly suggested a "neutral government" to oversee
elections. Such a proposal would not be acceptable to his
party, Rijal said. Since the King himself is not neutral,
how can we believe that his hand-picked government would be?
he asked. Deuba suggested himself as the best candidate to
head a new government, Rijal reported, since he had been the
last elected Prime Minister before the King assumed executive
authority and because he has the support of the UML, Nepal's
largest political party. The King offered a noncommittal
response to this proposal, Rijal said, pending consultations
with other parties. While the UML likely will support Deuba
for Prime Minister, the Nepali Congress, headed by Deuba's
arch-rival Girija Prasad Koirala, will surely try to obstruct
the appointment and prevent consensus, Rijal conceded. Deuba
"has to reach out to Koirala" to secure his cooperation.
Rijal also raised the visit of former Indian Ambassador and
perceived "kingmaker" Ranjan, which he believes portends an
imminent change in government.

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. . . AND WITH THE PM . . .
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5. (C) RPP Spokeswoman Karki reported that the King met with
PM Thapa on April 22 as well. According to Karki, the King
asked Thapa 22 different questions, including how and why his
government had allowed the protests to gain momentum, why the
police had suppressed some of the protests with violence, and
why journalists covering the protests had been arrested. The
King's line of questioning indicates deep-seated
dissatisfaction with the current government and its handling
of the crisis, Karki asserted, and provides further evidence
that he may be contemplating a change.

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. . . BUT NOT WITH PROTESTING PARTIES
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6. (SBU) Nepali Congress President Koirala and UML General
Secretary Madhav Nepal have both initially rejected the

SIPDIS
King's offer to meet, according to party sources and the
local media. UML Central Committee member Jhala Nath Khanal
said that the party had decided not to agree to meet the King
unless PM Thapa resigns first. When asked to explain the
wisdom of dismissing one government before another had even
been discussed, let alone agreed upon, Khanal said that the
party leadership was fearful that meeting the King without an
identifiable victory in hand--like Thapa's resignation--could
be misinterpreted by the more radicalized youth wing as a
sell-out. Interspersed with their anti-government slogans
over the past few days, protesters from the party's youth
wing had also been shouting warnings to the leadership not to
compromise on their demands, he claimed. Having whipped up
anti-government fervor to such a pitch, the UML leadership
would be criticized as hypocritical if it were perceived as
running meekly to meet the King at his beck and call, Khanal
said. If Thapa resigns, a positive climate for
reconciliation could be created. The UML will support Deuba
as a consensus candidate for Prime Minister to head an
all-party government, he confirmed.


7. (SBU) Nepali Congress General Secretary Sushil Koirala
said his party will not agree to meet the King until he
addresses over public media, such as television or radio,
"the political agenda." When asked to elaborate, Koirala
said that the King should issue his invitation to meet
protesting party leaders over the radio or television. He
added that the Nepali Congress would not agree to an
"all-sided" government made up of independents and
technocrats. For the Nepali Congress, the only appropriate
government is one composed entirely of members of the five
protesting political parties--a group from which G.P. Koirala
has continued to exclude Deuba's Nepali Congress (Democratic).

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PROTESTS CONTINUE
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8. (SBU) These discussions take place against a backdrop of
continued civil unrest and anti-government demonstrations.
While many of these protests seem choreographed, the
demonstrators are becoming increasingly aggressive and
confrontational, and the potential for greater violence looms
large. On April 22 protesters succeeded in completely
paralyzing traffic in the center of the city for at least two
hours, rendering Embassy vehicles, for the first time in two
years of such demonstrations, unable to leave the Phora
Durbar GSO compound. Student protesters rained bricks on
pedestrians, police and motorcycles on the posh Durbar Marg
shopping district, site of several upscale hotels,
restaurants, and Tibetan antique dealerships, while chanting
"He's not our King." (The Palace is located at the opposite
end of Durbar Marg--no more than 200 yards away.) When a
brick hit a small child riding pillion on the back of his
father's motorcycle, a crowd of local residents (many of them
disgruntled merchants who had been forced to shutter their
shops for the day) responded with fury, hurling bricks back
at the students thronging the streets and perched atop
buildings along the avenue. The police, in full riot gear,
looked on impassively. After occupying the streets,
disrupting traffic and halting commerce for more than five
hours, the students returned to their campus at about 2:00
p.m.

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PALACE POINT OF VIEW
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9. (C) Royal confidant and business partner Prabhakar Rana
confirmed to CDA on April 23 that discussions with the
parties are going forward. According to Rana, the Palace
remains confident that, their initial refusals
notwithstanding, Nepali Congress President Koirala and UML
General Secretary Madhav Nepal will agree to meet with the
King within the next few days. In his recent discussions
with Koirala, Rana commented, the Nepali Congress leader
seemed uncharacteristically "more reasonable" and
accommodating than ever before, while the UML's
Nepal--usually the more flexible and rational of the
pair--seemed to be assuming a more rigid position. The King
will not/not ask PM Thapa to step down before a new
government is in place, as Nepal is apparently demanding,
Rana added. The King is persuaded that people desperately
want elections, Rana said, and will only consider a change if
a new government can engage with the Maoists. The King would
want to meet with any proposed new government to discuss a
"road map" for dealing with the Maoists. The new government
would be charged with creating appropriate conditions for
elections to include, if possible, Maoist participation in
the polls, Rana said.


10. (C) The King would prefer "someone younger and less
corrupt" than Deuba to head such a government, Rana said, but
was willing to consider the Nepali Congress (Democratic)
leader if he emerges as a consensus candidate. If a new
all-party government is formed, the King will ask it to
commit to dissolving itself by next February in favor of a
neutral caretaker government to oversee elections. To lock
in the parties' cooperation, the King may ask them to agree
to amend the Constitution to stipulate that a caretaker
government oversee elections, Rana reported.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) The King has been under increasing diplomatic
pressure, including from the U.S., to break the stalemate by
reaching out to the parties. As Ambassador Malinowski
recommended in his April 20 meeting with the King, the
monarch has apparently been making extensive use of
unofficial envoys like Prabhakar Rana to prepare the
groundwork for an agreement. The parties had indicated a
willingness, at the Ambassador's urging, to respond
positively to such overtures (Reftel). Now faced with the
real possibility of such an overture, the parties appear to
be backing off. In this situation, it is difficult to
determine the motives of either side. Are the two biggest
parties playing hard to get in an effort to increase their
bargaining power? Is the King setting impossibly high
standards that he is confident the parties cannot meet? If
they are indeed sincere, instead of issuing ultimatums, party
leaders should be seeking, in concert with Palace mediators,
some suitable middle ground that avoids humiliating the King
while preserving their own substantial sense of self-worth.
The King, on the other hand, also risks overplaying his hand.
Unless he can demonstrate to wary party leaders a
willingness to compromise as well, he may lose yet another
opportunity to bring the parties into his confidence and off
of the streets.



BOGGS