NEPAL: KING PONDERING POSSIBLE POLLS NEXT YEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000407

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: KING PONDERING POSSIBLE POLLS NEXT YEAR

REF: KATHMANDU 0279

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Royal confidant Prabhakar Rana told the Ambassador
on March 3 that King Gyanendra is considering holding
national elections by May 2005. There was no indication of
when an official announcement might be made. While we view
free and fair elections as the best way to restore Nepal's
derailed democracy, the King's strategy for encouraging the
participation of estranged political parties--at least as
described by Rana--has been tried before with no success. We
believe that relations between the parties and the Palace
have not improved sufficiently to warrant significant
optimism that an all-party government is likely. There does
appear, however, to be growing support for elections within
the Government. End summary.

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KING CONSIDERING ELECTIONS
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2. (C) On March 3 Prabhakar Rana, a confidant and business
partner of King Gyanendra, told the Ambassador that he had
been instructed by the King to relay to the U.S. his views
about holding long-delayed national elections. Rana said the
King had begun seriously weighing the possibility of holding
national elections by May 2005. (Note: This projection
differs from the October/November timeframe we have heard
suggested by others, including, recently, the Prime Minister.
End note.) Local elections could be held "whenever and
wherever possible." The King wanted to convey that he would
welcome foreign assitance, to include election monitors, to
help ensure free and fair elections, Rana stressed.


3. (C) The King recognizes that successful elections will
require the participation of the political parties, Rana
explained, and is contemplating two separate scenarios to
encourage their cooperation. First, he might convoke a
meeting of leaders of major political parties to brief them
on his recent visits in western Nepal (Reftel) and to explain
his current thinking on elections. Alternatively, he might
invite party leaders to join an all-party government, led by
Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, to prepare for elections.
The King realizes the parties would likely reject this
offer, Rana said, and is thus prepared to offer as a
fall-back proposal the possibility of joining an all-party
government under a different Prime Minister. Membership in
the Cabinet would be open only to those who would not run in
the election, according to Rana, and the purpose and term of
the new interim government would be limited to holding the
elections. (Note: These are the same conditions that the
King set for membership in the Cabinet of former Prime
Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand. None of the protesting
political parties accepted the offer. End note.) The King
realizes that only the Election Commissioner can set the date
for elections, Rana said, but added that the King may
announce his plans for an all-party government and hopes for
elections during his visit to Pokhara on March 28.

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INDIANS REPORTEDLY IN FAVOR
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4. (C) Rana said that the only other foreign mission
apprised of the King's plans is the Indian Embassy.
According to Rana, Indian Ambassador Shyam Saran indicated
that his government would support plans to hold elections.
Rana reported that he plans to travel to New Delhi March 7-8
to brief Indian National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra on
the King's thinking.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) We have been pressing the Government of Nepal for
some time to review seriously possibilities for elections.
This communication marks another indication--we have had
several recently--that the Government is beginning to do so.
There are a number of factors that must be carefully
considered; the likelihood of violent Maoist efforts to
disrupt polling is just one of numerous significant hurdles
the Government must confront. That said, free and fair
elections are clearly the best resolution that we can
envision to the protracted political stalemate and the
suspension of representative democracy. We are concerned,
however, that the King's strategy for attracting support from
the political parties, at least as described by Rana, seems a
rehash of the same Palace proposals the parties have rejected
several times already. We have seen no subsequent
improvement in the chilly relations between the parties and
the Palace that leads us to believe that this time prospects
that the parties will cooperate are any brighter. If
anything, the King's recent round of visits to
Maoist-affected areas--where no national political leader has
dared or bothered to appear for years--has further
exacerbated the politicians' distrust and suspicion of his
motives. Under these circumstances, a unilateral
announcement from the King heralding the onset of elections
that had not been thoroughly briefed to the parties
beforehand is unlikely to be welcomed by them. We will do
our part to urge the parties' participation, but we will also
urge the Palace to meet the parties halfway by consulting
with them earlier, rather than later, in the process.
MALINOWSKI