Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04KATHMANDU180
2004-01-29 09:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

NEPAL: NO END IN SIGHT FOR POLITICAL IMPASSE

Tags:  PGOV PTER PREL UK IN NP 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000180 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2014
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL UK IN NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: NO END IN SIGHT FOR POLITICAL IMPASSE

REF: A. KATHMANDU 0046


B. KATHMANDU 0121

C. KATHMANDU 0122

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

-------
SUMMARY
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000180

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2014
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL UK IN NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: NO END IN SIGHT FOR POLITICAL IMPASSE

REF: A. KATHMANDU 0046


B. KATHMANDU 0121

C. KATHMANDU 0122

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) During a January 29 meeting, the U.S., UK, and Indian
Ambassadors agreed that there is little evidence that a
breakthrough in the political deadlock between the Palace and
the parties is imminent. The three discussed possible
long-term implications of the demonstrating student unions'
call for an end to the monarchy (Ref C). The Indian and
British Ambassadors advised that both their governments are
increasing development and military aid to Nepal. The Indian
Ambassador expressed concern at the recent tremendous influx
of Nepalis, fleeing Maoist violence in the southern border
area of the Terai, into India, noting that state governments
in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh were beginning to complain to the
central government. End summary.

--------------
PARTIES AND PALACE:
ROAD TO RECONCILIATION REMAINS ROCKY
--------------


2. (C) As part of ongoing trilateral consultations, the
Ambassadors of the U.S., UK and India met on January 29 to
exchange views on recent developments in Nepal and share
information on their respective policies and programs. The
three agreed that there seemed little immediate hope that the
King's recent overture to the political leadership (Refs A
and B) will help resolve the 15-month stalemate between the
parties and the Palace. Despite his insistence that he wants
to focus on the "process" of forming a more representative
government, rather than the "personalities" involved, the
King has made clear that he is unlikely to accept any of the
leaders of the three largest political parties (Nepali
Congress President G.P. Koirala; Communist Party of Nepal -
United Marxist Leninist General Secretary Madhav Nepal; or
Nepali Congress (Democratic) President Sher Bahadur Deuba) to
lead such a government. Nor is National Democratic Party
(a.k.a. RPP) Chairman Pashupati S.J.B. Rana a viable

candidate, the three concurred, for two reasons. First, he
is a prominent scion of the former dynastic rulers of Nepal
who attempted to crush the democratic movement more than 50
years ago. Second, it was his daughter whose star-crossed
romantic involvement with the late Crown Prince Dipendra is
popularly cited as the reason for the June 2001 Palace
massacre. With the top four politicians plainly out of the
running, the Ambassadors noted, there appears to be no effort
from either side to consult with one another on possible
"second-choice" consensus candidates. The parties had
already rejected one such possibility--former Speaker of
Parliament Taranath Ranabhat, who was apparently favored by
the King. The party leaders' own egoes and internecine
jealousies make identifying an acceptable "second choice"
from among party ranks extremely difficult, the envoys
agreed. The parties, moreover, are seeking a guarantee from
the King that he will reduce his political intervention and
reassume the role of a constitutional monarch--a commitment,
the Ambassadors noted, the monarch may be unwilling to
provide at this point.

--------------
PARTIES PEEVED AT KING'S INTERVIEW
--------------


3. (C) King Gyanendra's January 26 interview with Time
Asia, which received broad and generally unfavorable coverage
in the local press, has aggravated the situation, the
Ambassadors noted. (Note: The negative coverage focuses on
the King's accusations that the parties do not speak for the
people, have no accountability, and that their leaders' "lack
of foresight" and disregard for their constituents led to the
Maoist insurgency. In addition, some local commentators and
politicians believe that the King's statement that "the days
of royalty being seen and not heard are over" suggests he
intends to pursue a more active, extra-constitutional role.
End note.) The King's statements seemed a bit
confrontational and provocative, rather than conciliatory,
they agreed. Indian Ambassador Shyam Saran said that former
Indian Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar, who is in Kathmandu
for a brief visit, offered a dismal read-out from his
meetings with King Gyanendra and NC President G.P. Koirala.
Shekhar indicated he found the King's attitude toward the
parties hardening, while Koirala seemed "recalcitrant" and
not disposed toward compromise.


4. (C) Besides the King's well-publicized interview,
prospects for reconciliation are also complicated by the
near-daily protests against the King, carried out by the
student wings of the two largest parties, presumably as
proxies for the political leadership, the Ambassadors
concurred (Ref C). The students' recent calls for an end to
the monarchy are of special concern, Saran said, not
necessarily because they reflect widespread sentiment but
because they raise a sensitive issue that, once vocalized,
becomes increasingly difficult "to put back in the box." In
the meantime, the Maoists are watching recent developments
with interest to see if the turmoil can be turned to their
advantage, Saran continued, adding that the insurgents
maintain contact with the EU and the Scandinavians. UK
Ambassador Keith Bloomfield expressed surprise at Saran's
report, stating that he was unaware of any recent contact
between EU officials and the Maoists.

--------------
MAOIST TERROR IN TERAI CREATES
PROBLEMS FOR INDIAN BORDER STATES
--------------


5. (C) Saran reported that increased Maoist activity in the
southern Terai plains is creating a surge of refugees into
Indian states along the Nepali border, especially Uttar
Pradesh and Bihar. He added that the huge increase in
cross-border traffic has prompted complaints from state
governments struggling to cope with the influx. Even
comparatively wealthy Nepalis are leaving their homes to
avoid Maoist extortion, he said. The enforced "fund-raising"
seems to be paying off, Saran observed, reporting that the
Maoists, apparently flush with cash, are offering potential
recruits Rs 2000 (approximately USD 27) in the eastern
district of Sindhuli.

--------------
UK, INDIA INCREASE AID
--------------


6. (C) The British and Indian Ambassadors reported that both
their respective governments have decided to increase
security and development assistance levels. Saran noted that
the Indian government will increase the amounts of INSAS
rifles, ammunition, mobile command posts and anti-mine
vehicles for the military. Indian and Nepali security
agencies recently held a very useful and productive meeting
in Bangalore, Saran said, and intelligence cooperation is
growing. The Indian government has also committed to
building an additional 1000 kms of farm-to-market roads in
the Terai region, which will ultimately be linked to
improving road networks in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Indian
railheads will be stretched to a number of Nepal's border
towns, and a petrol pipeline will be built from the border to
Kathmandu, thereby significantly lowering energy costs. In
addition, the Indian government has decided to move rail
heads up to the Nepali border, a hopeful flicker of life for
the long-delayed rail link between India and Nepal.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The good news about our regular consultations with
the UK and Indian envoys is that these exchanges confirm the
similarity of our Missions' assessment of the domestic
political situation. The bad news is that that assessment is
uniformly discouraging. Despite our respective Embassies'
good offices and best efforts, the mood of both the Palace
and the parties seems increasingly uncompromising and
recriminatory. Unfortunately, the strident public positions
taken by both sides--protests by surrogate student wings on
the one hand and bluntly critical comments in a prominent
international publication on the other--only harden
positions. Such high-profile stances are forcing both sides
into corners from which each will find it difficult to come
together.
MALINOWSKI