NEPAL: RPP PRESIDENT RANA ON THE COALITION, PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001714

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINS IN NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: RPP PRESIDENT RANA ON THE COALITION, PEACE
PLANS

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty; Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The coalition government was working together fairly
well and was discussing modalities for an eventual peace
process with the Maoists, RPP President Rana told the
Ambassador on August 24. Meanwhile, security cooperation
between India and Nepal seemed to be improving, in Rana's
view. Finally, Rana was unphased by the plans of the four
opposition parties to go back onto the streets of Kathmandu
in protest against the coalition government.

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POSITIVE ABOUT THE COALITION, INDIA
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2. (C) Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) President Pashupati
SJB Rana told the Ambassador on August 24 that the
functioning of the coalition government was "not bad,
actually." After a rough few months of establishing working
relationships, the four parties in the coalition were being
fairly mutually supportive, especially considering the
inherent limits of coalitions. Having just returned from
India where he had met with Indian National Security Advisor
J.N. Dixit, Rana stated he had tried to "calm them (the
Indians) down" about the blockade, although he feared he had
been less than successful due to sensational media coverage.
Meanwhile, the level of government-to-government cooperation
between Nepal and India was clearly improving, and positive
results on the security front were evident.

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PEACE TALK POSSIBILITIES
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3. (C) The Maoists had made clear to each of the coalition
partners that they wanted to talk, Rana stated, but had been
thus far unwilling to do enough to engender real confidence
among the coalition that they were serious. Explaining that
the government did not want to jump too quickly into
negotiations, Rana stated that the coalition partners were
deciding on possible venues, negotiation procedures and
desired outcomes for the talks. No decision had been made,
but it seemed possible that the "talks with the Maoists about
the talks" could take place in Nepal. At the same time,
there was a great deal of public pressure for "peace at any
price," Rana stated, but a real peace process with a
productive outcome would take time. Thus, while the
negotiations would need to stay confidential to keep public
diatribes by either side from derailing the process, the
sides would also have to agree on what to tell the media to
minimize speculation and to feed the public's desire for
progress.


4. (C) Rana explained that he believed the government should
go into talks willing to put anything on the table, including
a constituent assembly. However, he pointed out, to have a
constituent assembly (to draft a new constitution),there
would have to be free and fair elections. For free and fair
elections to take place the Maoists would have to give up
their arms. Nothing was as simple as it appeared.

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THE OTHER PARTIES?
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5. (C) Turning to the announcement that the four opposition
parties (including Koirala's Nepali Congress) planned to
resume the "anti-regression" agitation, Rana speculated that
the new protests would largely fail. Most significantly, the
parties would have a difficult time bringing out many
supporters without the CPN-UML and its cadres in tow.
Moreover, it would be difficult to maintain protests against
the government during the "blockade" of Kathmandu. When the
Ambassador mentioned that it seemed some of Koirala's central
committee members were starting to question their President's
leadership, Rana agreed there was dissent in the NC party,
but thought it would take a major event to overcome Koirala's
"monolithic grip" on his party.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Rana heads one of the smaller coalition partners, and
faces some internal challenges of his own within his party.
However, the Oxford-trained politician is an insightful and
reasonable interlocutor. Moreover, his party's traditionally
conservative position in Nepali politics make it an important
canary in the coalition to measure the likely reaction of the
palace to government initiatives. END COMMENT.
MORIARTY