NEPAL: ARMY LAUNCHES AIR STRIKE AGAINST REPORTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000133

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2014
TAGS: MOPS PTER NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: ARMY LAUNCHES AIR STRIKE AGAINST REPORTED
MAOIST MEETING SITE


Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).


1. (C) The Director of Military Operations (DMO) of the
Royal Nepal Army (RNA) has confirmed that on January 20 the
RNA conducted an air strike against a site in the remote
mid-western district of Jajarkot, where the Maoists were
reportedly holding a large rally. According to the RNA
source, the air operation lasted approximately 10-15 minutes,
during which time 36 "bombs" (most likely 81mm or 82 mm
mortar rounds) were dropped by helicopter from an improvised
weapons system. The RNA did not launch a ground operation to
support the air strike, and, as of COB January 21, has been
unable to move forces to the site to assess the battle
damage. Forces are expected to reach the area on foot by
early morning January 22. The RNA was unable to offer any
information on possible casualties.


2. (U) The local press reported that on January 20 the RNA
launched an air strike against the site of a large Maoist
gathering, convened to celebrate the announcement of the
"People's Autonomous Government of the Bheri-Karnali Zone."
(Note: The Bheri-Karnali zones cover the mid-west and
extreme north-western districts and include some of the most
remote and least developed areas in Nepal. End note.) The
reports, claiming that numerous villagers had been forced to
attend the rally, speculated that "dozens" may have been
killed in the attack. Press accounts also relayed
unconfirmed (and to us, highly unlikely) reports that Maoist
ideologue and Central Committee member Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
had attended the meeting and that the RNA had launched the
attack in an effort to kill him.


3. (U) On January 21 the Maoist web site claimed that an
air strike conducted by "the Royal American Army" had missed
the site of the meeting, hitting instead the home of a local
resident, killing one villager, injuring two others, and
destroying several water buffalo. (Note: Recent Maoist
diatribes have derided the Royal Nepal Army as the "Royal
American Army." End note.) Predictably, the statement on
the web site alleged that the rally was a grand success,
drawing thousands of loyal and flag-wavng supporters, and
that the Maoist militia had "driven away" RNA ground forces
purportedly brought in to support the air strike. The
account quoted Maoist Central Committee member Krishna
Bahadur Mahara, who reportedly attended the meeting, as
declaring that the "time has come to move to the cities from
the villages."


4. (SBU) INSEC, a local human rights NGO with district
chapters throughout Nepal, told us that a representative from
one of its regional offices had attended the Maoist rally and
basically corroborated most of the account on the insurgents'
web site. According to that source, the RNA bombs dropped
from a helicopter had fallen about one hour's walk to the
west of the site of the meeting, killing a villager. In
contrast to the Maoist claims of repelling RNA ground forces,
the INSEC representative said that no RNA ground troops came
near the site of the meeting.


5. (C) Comment: Unlike the Maoists, the RNA has refrained
from making official public statements regarding the air
strike. Until we have the RNA's battle damage assessment, it
will remain difficult to judge which of the various
conflicting versions seems likeliest. We find it highly
unlikely that someone of Bhattarai's stature, who ranks
second in the insurgents' hierarchy, would agree to undergo
either the considerable risks to his personal safety or the
considerable inconvenience to his personal comfort involved
in traveling to this difficult, inaccessible part of the
Maoist heartland so far from his recent sanctuary in northern
India. If, as the press seemed to indicate, the RNA action
was prompted by intelligence that Bhattarai might have been
present, it seems equally unlikely, given the primitive
nature of the weaponry apparently used in the attack, that an
RNA air assault could have had the technical accuracy needed
to target Bhattarai, Mahara or any other senior Maoist who
might have been in attendance.
MALINOWSKI