NEPAL: ARE THE STUDENT PROTESTS RESONATING WITHIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000122

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/INS, LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY, NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: ARE THE STUDENT PROTESTS RESONATING WITHIN
NEPALI SOCIETY?

REF: KATHMANDU 64

Classified By: CDA Robert K. Boggs for reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Now at the month-long mark, student
union-led protests have grown increasingly critical of the
King and have even begun calling for the abolition of the
monarchy and the institution of a republican state. The
demonstrations are the largest and most sustained protests
since the dissolution of Nepal's Parliament in October 2002.
Although the political parties have not sanctioned officially
the student unions' call for a republic, party leaders have
claimed that there is a small, but growing, sentiment within
the parties that the monarchy has made itself obsolete. The
government claims that Maoists are influencing the
demonstrators, using the protests to discredit the King and
drive a wedge between the government and the people. It
remains unclear whether the student protests reflect popular
sentiment in Nepal or whether they are merely a manifestation
of the political parties' efforts to pressure the King to
appoint an all-party government. End Summary.

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Student Demonstrations: Calls for Republican State
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2. (C) On January 15, the ongoing student protests reached
the one-month mark and, in the past few days, have turned
more destructive and more anti-monarchical. During a
one-hour nation-wide road blockade on January 14,
demonstrators called for a republican state and the abolition
of the monarchy. According to Gagan Thapa, General Secretary
of the Nepal Students Union (NSU),the Nepali Congress
party's student wing, three of the seven main student unions
had decided formally to call for a republican state. Two of
the three are affiliated with the far-left political parties
-- People's Front Nepal and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party
-- while the other is the Maoist student wing, operating
underground since the end of the ceasefire. Thapa contends
that public opinion favors the student protests and that
calls for a republican state have led visibly to an increase
in the number of demonstrators over the past two days. Thapa
reported that, on January 14, there were at least 2,000
protesters in Kathmandu with only 25 percent of them active
members of the student unions.


3. (C) Thapa indicated that NSU and the CPN-UML affiliated
student union, ANNFSU, would meet on January 15 to plan the
student protest program for the next two weeks. He said it
is likely that the two unions would focus their protests on
one key demand: that the King step back from the "royal move
of October 4, 2002 (in which the King dismissed then-Prime
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba) and restore power to the
people." Thapa was vague about how the King should restore
power to the people, agreeing that both restoration of the
parliament or an all-party government would satisfy that
demand. If the King fails to act, however, NSU and ANNFSU
might decide to join the call for a republican state, he
said. Thapa claimed that the protests will continue until
the King satisfies the student unions' demand.


4. (C) Although the demonstrations initially were limited to
Kathmandu, police contacts reported that on January 14,
students took to the streets in 24 of Nepal's 75 districts in
groups ranging from 50 demonstrators to several thousand.
Some of these demonstrations turned violent, leaving five
students wounded in Kathmandu, six in Chitwan District in the
lowland Terai and seven in Makwanpur District, south of
Kathmandu Valley. According to NSU's Gagan Thapa, none of
the injuries were critical, and no students remain in the
hospital. Despite numerous arrests on January 14, all
students were released that same day. In at least one
district, political party leaders participated in the
protests. One contact in Chitwan District indicated that
roughly 500 people participated in the January 14
demonstration, which led to the injury of a CPN-UML district
leader and the ex-deputy mayor of Bharatpur during a baton
charge by police.

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Political Parties Stand Back, But Not Too Far
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5. (C) Although political party leaders claim that the
students' call for a republican state is not sanctioned
officially, some elements within the parties appear to be
supportive of the student movement. Press reports on January
14 quoted Nepali Congress Treasurer Mahanta Thakur with
suggesting that the protests would continue "until and unless
the King abdicates the throne." Reacting to this press
report, Nepali Congress Spokesperson, Arjun K.C., said
privately that Thakur's statement did not reflect party
policy, but was the personal opinion of some party members.
Sujata Koirala, daughter of Nepali Congress President and
frequent Prime Minister G.P. Koirala, claimed "that is what
the young people are saying." She added that a recent
delegation of Nepali Congress student leaders had told her
father they would press their republican aims, even against
party Central Committee policy.


6. (C) Likewise, Jhala Nath Khanal, International Relations
Director for the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist
Leninist (CPN-UML),indicated that some party members might
be encouraging the student movement and that there is a
growing sentiment within the party that perhaps the monarchy
should be abolished. Another CPN-UML leader, K.P. Oli was
quoted by the press with suggesting that the students' slogan
"in favor of a republic is not a problem, but an attempt to
resolve the problem." Khanal blamed, in part, the Indian
Government for being a "poor influence" on the student
movement and suggested that India was encouraging the rising
anti-monarchical sentiment in Nepal.


7. (SBU) On January 16, the Royal Nepal Army spokesman,
Colonel Deepak Gurung averred that Maoists are "involved" in
the ongoing student demonstrations. Although Gurung provided
few details, he suggested that Maoists might be using the
protests to commit violence against the government.

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Comment
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8. (C) It is unclear whether the ongoing student union-led
demonstrations reflect popular sentiment in Nepal. They are
the largest and longest sustained protests since the
dissolution of Parliament in October 2002. It is important
to recognize, however, that the student union leadership is
comprised predominantly by men in their mid-30s and 40s who
are not students, but politicians in their own right. The
student union leaders' capacity to rally support around a
particular slogan might have more to do with the lack of
youth employment opportunities and the current winter recess
for public universities than with broad-based dissatisfaction
with the monarchy on the part of Nepal's youth. Many urban
Nepalis allege that some demonstrators have less interest in
political causes than in daily stipends paid by the parties
for demonstrating. Many of our Nepali contacts also have
expressed disapproval of the vandalism of private property by
the demonstrators.


9. (C) However, no one within the political parties or in
civil society has criticized the growing radicalization of
the student movement. Although the political parties allege
that the student unions' call for a republican state is not
sanctioned by the parties themselves, the parties are no
doubt using the student movement to maintain pressure on the
King while refraining from direct confrontation with the
Palace. The possibility that the Maoists have infiltrated
the ranks of protesters is unsurprising given the Maoist
political agenda. Maoists would like nothing more than to
discredit the King and drive a wedge between the political
parties and the government. Absent greater progress toward
reconciliation between the King and the parties, we expect
the student protests to continue. End Comment.
MALINOWSKI