NEPAL: POLITICAL PARTY BICKERING CONTINUES DESPITE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000121

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR SA/INS, LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY, NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: POLITICAL PARTY BICKERING CONTINUES DESPITE
KING'S OVERTURE

REF: KATHMANDU 55


1. (SBU) Summary. Nepal's political parties, like the King,
continue to talk about how best to restore democracy in the
kingdom, but persistently resist working together. On
January 14, the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist
Leninist (CPN-UML) party published a political "roadmap" that
calls for an all-party government, but fails to respond to
King Gyanendra's request for a common seven-point agenda
(reftel). Most political parties have responded critically
to the roadmap, although limited support has been expressed
by the leadership of Nepali Congress (Democratic) and the
Maoist leadership. The Prime Minister restated his
commitment to holding elections after a "few months" and
urged the parties to cooperate. It is unlikely that the
CPN-UML roadmap will provide the common ground for the
parties. Instead, the only common position among all the
parties is their insistence that an all-party government
precede the development of a national consensus. End Summary.

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UML Proposal Calls for All-Party Government
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2. (SBU) On January 14, the Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninst (CPN-UML) released a "Proposal for the
Resolution of the National Problem." In the proposal, the
communist party charges both the government and the Maoists
with being insincere in their efforts to reach a peaceful,
negotiated settlement to the conflict. The paper also
devotes a long paragraph to the costs of the insurgency in
terms of lives lost, the numbers of people who have been
displaced and the numerous industries that have been shut
down. The party outlines a nine-point "roadmap" that would
"establish peace, restore the democratic-constitutional
process and lead the country forward along with national
consensus."


3. (SBU) The CPN-UML proposal does not address the seven
national issues raised by King Gyanendra in his recent
meetings with political party leaders (Reftel). Rather,
CPN-UML calls first for dismissal of Prime Minister Thapa and
formation of an all-party government with the appointment of
a Prime Minister recommended by the political parties.
According to the roadmap, the all-party government would
develop a common program addressing the issues raised by the
King and create a conducive environment for a cease-fire with
the Maoists. After a cease-fire is negotiated, the
government should convene a roundtable conference, with
Maoist participation, to review the common program and decide
upon whether Nepal's constitution should be amended or
re-drafted. In addition to the roundtable conference, the
government would organize national elections for a new
parliament to be observed by the international community.
The elected parliament would appoint a commission to either
amend or re-draft the constitution, which would then be
accepted by a two-thirds majority vote.


4. (SBU) The CPN-UML roadmap does not specify whether the
constitution's preamble with its pillars of multiparty
democracy and constitutional monarchy would remain intact.
To the contrary, the press on January 15 quoted CPN-UML
leader K.P. Oli with saying that "only a new constitution can
put an end to the prevailing crisis." (Note. In the view of
some observers, "national consensus and national unity" --
two of the seven points in the King's proposal -- are thought
to be euphemisms for agreement to preserve the constitutional
monarchy. End Note.)

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Other Parties Downplay UML Roadmap
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5. (SBU) According to CPN-UML's Jhala Nath Khanal, the
biggest challenge facing the party is in implementing the
roadmap. On January 15, CPN-UML Chairman, Madhav Nepal, met
with the leaders of the other main political party leaders:
G.P. Koirala of Nepali Congress, Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali
Congress (Democratic),the monarchist Rastriya Prajatantra
Party (RPP) and smaller left-wing parties to discuss the
roadmap. Khanal claimed that all parties except for Nepali
Congress were receptive initially to the CPN-UML proposal.
However, press reports indicate that none of the political
parties consider the roadmap a viable political framework.
Nepali Congress contacts have indicated that their party
would not support the CPN-UML roadmap, which they believe is
merely a ploy by Madhav Nepal to position himself as a
candidate for Prime Minister. Similarly, leaders of the
Nepal Sabhavana Party publicly criticized the roadmap for
diverging from the spirit of the 18-point agenda accepted by
the five-party alliance in mid-2003.


6. (SBU) Ironically, cautious support has come from Nepali
Congress (Democratic) and Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai.
NC(D) leaders have not discarded outright the CPN-UML
proposal, although one Central Committee member said the
proposal was "half-baked" and lacked clarity. He welcomed
the King's meetings with political party leaders as a
positive development and indicated that NC(D) would develop
its own paper responding directly to the King's seven-point
agenda. Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai also reportedly
issued a statement "cautiously welcoming" the roadmap as a
step in the right direction.

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PM Thapa Renews Commitment to Elections
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7. (SBU) On January 13, Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa
issued a press statement renewing his government's commitment
to conducting elections "within a few months." However, to
accomplish that task, he recognized that the cooperation and
understanding of the political parties would be essential.
Thapa called upon the parties to create an "environment of
conciliation" in order to ameliorate the country's current
political crisis.

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Comment
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8. (SBU) The political parties thus far have failed to
respond positively to the King's request that they present
him a common plan addressing seven key issues, such as the
insurgency, elections and anti-corruption. Although the
CPN-UML roadmap encourages a spirit of collectivism, it, too,
fails to address the King's seven points. The political
parties' lukewarm response to the CPN-UML plan is likely due,
in part, to this failure, but also to avoid perceptions that
CPN-UML is taking the lead on a forward-looking agenda. We
may see the other political parties advertising alternative
visions for the future in coming days. Whatever different
forms these various partisan "roadmaps" take, one key element
will likely be similar: the insistence that all-party
government precede the national consensus. The King's
seven-point program raises issues of national prominence on
which any viable all-party government would have to develop
consensus anyway. But the question of precedence -- whether
all-party government first, as the parties want, or consensus
first, as the King has stipulated -- is a major sticking
point that will likely continue to hamper progress toward
conciliation between the parties and the palace. End
Comment.
MALINOWSKI