NEPAL: KING'S ADVISOR OUTLINES STEPS TO FORM NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001001

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2014
TAGS: NP PGOV PREL GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: KING'S ADVISOR OUTLINES STEPS TO FORM NEW
GOVERNMENT

Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D)


1. SUMMARY: KING GYANENDRA'S BUSINESS PARTNER AND CONFIDANT,
PRABHAKAR RANA, TOLD THE CHARGE AND DCM ON MAY 28 THAT
REPEATED EFFORTS TO PERSUADE THE LEADERS OF THE TWO MAIN
POLITICAL PARTIES TO ACCEPT SOMEONE ELSE AS PRIME MINISTER
HAD FAILED. AS A RESULT, THE KING IS LIKELY TO CALL ALL THE
PARTIES TOGETHER AGAIN SOON (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MAY 31) TO
PRESENT THEM WITH AN ULTIMATUM--EITHER COME TO HIM SOON WITH
THE NAME OF AN AGREED CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER OR THE
KING WILL APPOINT A PRIME MINISTER OF HIS OWN CHOOSING.
CURRENTLY, THE KING'S LEADING CANDIDATE FOR PM IS
PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER TARANATH RANABHAT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
A NUMBER OF GOOD REASONS WHY RANABHAT SHOULD BE ACCEPTABLE TO
A NUMBER OF PARTIES, EMBASSY IS NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE
LEADERS OF THE MAJOR PARTIES WILL ACCEPT HIS APPOINTMENT. IF
THE PARTIES CANNOT REACH AGREEMENT SOON ON A COMMON CANDIDATE
AND REJECT THE KING'S CHOICE, PROSPECTS FOR FORMING A
BROADER-BASED NEW GOVERNMENT AND ENDING POLITICAL PARTY
AGITATIONS REMAIN DIM. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PRABHAKAR RANA, BUSINESS PARTNER AND CONFIDANT OF KING
GYANENDRA, VISITED EMBASSY ON MAY 28 TO BRIEF CHARGE AND DCM,
WITH THE KING'S AUTHORIZATION, ON RECENT STEPS BY THE PALACE
TO FORCE A CONSENSUS AMONG NEPAL'S AGITATING PARTIES ON A
NEW, MULTI-PARTY GOVERNMENT. RANA EXPLAINED THAT HE HAD BEEN
CHARGED BY THE KING WITH ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH A "STRATEGIC
ALLIANCE" WITH GIRIJA PRASAD KOIRALA, OCTOGENARIAN LEADER OF
THE MAIN FACTION OF THE NEPALI CONGRESS PARTY. THE RATIONALE
FOR SUCH AN ALLIANCE WAS THAT KOIRALA, BY VIRTUE OF HIS AGE
AND EXPERIENCE, COULD BEST SERVE AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL
DEMOCRATIC PARTIES AS THE KINGDOM MOVES TOWARD PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS IN THE COMING YEAR UNDER A NEW GOVERNMENT. SUCH AN
ALLIANCE IS IMPORTANT, RANA EXPLAINED, BECAUSE THE LIBERAL
DEMOCRATIC PARTIES WERE SO DIVIDED THAT NONE OF THEM WAS
LIKELY TO WIN CONTROL OF AN ELECTED PARLIAMENT, MAKING IT
NEARLY CERTAIN THAT THE BETTER ORGANIZED COMMUNIST PARTIES
WOULD DO SO. MOST OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTIES,
INCLUDING THE NEPARI CONGRESS, HAVE SPLIT, AND THE
CONSERVATIVE RPP SHOWS SIGNS AGAIN OF SPLITTING AS WELL.


3. (C) AS EXPECTED, RANA SAID, KOIRALA HAD PROVEN TO BE A
DIFFICULT, STUBBORN MAN DURING THE NINE PRIVATE CONVERSATIONS
THE TWO HAD HELD. IT WAS CLEAR, RANA SAID, THAT THE ELDER
POLITICIAN COULD NOT ACCEPT ANYONE OTHER THAN HIMSELF TO BE
APPOINTED AS PRIME MINISTER IN A NEW GOVERNMENT. RANA SAID
HE HAD TRIED TO REASON WITH KOIRALA, PROPOSING A NUMBER OF
NAMES OF POLITICAL LEADERS WITHIN KOIRALA'S OWN PARTY WHO
MIGHT BE ACCEPTABLE TO HIM. DESPITE THIS, HOWEVER, KOIRALA
HAD REJECTED EVERY NAME, ARGUING THAT ANY PRIME MINISTER FROM
HIS PARTY OTHER THAN HIMSELF WOULD ONLY DIVIDE HIS PARTY
FURTHER. FINALLY, DURING THEIR LAST MEETING THIS WEEK, RANA
HAD MADE IT UNMISTAKABLY CLEAR THAT KOIRALA WOULD NOT BE
ACCEPTABLE AS PRIME MINISTER EITHER TO THE KING OR TO THE
NEPALI PEOPLE. THE EFFECT OF THIS MESSAGE, RANA SAID, HAD
BEEN CRUSHING, MAKING KOIRALA LOOK UNCHARACTERISTICALLY FULLY
AS OLD AS HIS 81 YEARS. IN MORE RECENT COMMUNICATIONS
KOIRALA HAS APPEARED TO SOFTEN SOMEWHAT, SAYING HE WOULD
ACCEPT PUSHUPATI RANA, THE PRESIDENT OF ONE FACTION OF THE
RPP, AS PRIME MINISTER, BUT HAS REMAINED ADAMANT THAT HE WILL
ACCEPT NO ONE FROM THE NEPALI CONGRESS. PRABHAKAR RANA OPINED
THAT, BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE, KOIRALA IN FACT PROBABLY
WOULD NOT ACCEPT EVEN PASHUPATI RANA AS PM. KOIRALA HAD SAID
HE WOULD WANT TO PHASE OUT STREET DEMONSTRATIONS GRADUALLY
OVER A TWO-MONTH PERIOD AFTER A NEW GOVERNMENT WAS APPOINTED,
BUT PROBABLY WOULD USE THEM INSTEAD TO OPPOSE ANY GOVERNMENT
THAT HE DID NOT HEAD.


4. (C) RANA WENT ON TO EXPLAIN THAT THE KING HAS TOLD SHER
BAHADUR DEUBA, THE LAST ELECTED PRIME MINISTER AND LEADER OF
THE BREAKAWAY FACTION OF THE NEPALI CONGRESS, THAT HE WOULD
BE ACCEPTABLE AS PRIME MINISTER IF HE COULD OBTAIN THE
SUPPORT OF OTHER PARTIES. DEUBA, HOWEVER, HAS FAILED TO
OBTAIN THE SUPPORT OF THE IMPORTANT COMMUNIST PARTY OF
NEPAL-UNITED MARXIST-LENINIST (CPN-UML) AND WOULD NEVER BE
ACCEPTABLE TO GIRIJA KOIRALA. THE KING, RANA EXPLAINED,
WOULD NOT ACCEPT A COMMUNIST PRIME MINISTER, SO THE LEADER OF
THE CPN-UML, MADHAV KUMAR NEPAL, AND HIS COLLEAGUES ARE NOT
CANDIDATES FOR PRIME MINISTER. IN AN ASIDE, RANA EXPLAINED
THAT DESPITE THE RELATIVE DISCIPLINE OF THE CPN-UML'S RULING
CENTRAL COMMITTEE, OTHER PROMINENT MEMBERS OF THE CPN-UML
DISLIKE MADHAV NEPAL AND WOULD OPPOSE HIS BEING NAMED PRIME
MINISTER. MADHAV NEPAL, HOWEVER, HAS BEEN UNRELENTING IN
PURSUIT OF THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP FOR HIMSELF AND HAS BEEN
LOATHE TO SIGNAL SUPPORT FOR ANYONE ELSE.


5. (C) CURRENTLY THE KING'S PREFERRED CANDIDATE FOR
COMPROMISE PRIME MINISTER IS PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER TARANATH
RANABHAT. RANA SAID THAT HE HAD EXPLAINED TO KOIRALA THAT
THE SPEAKER HAS A NUMBER OF ADVANTAGES AS PRIME MINISTER, VIZ:

-- ALTHOUGH PARLIAMENT HAS BEEN DISSOLVED, RANABHAT CONTINUES
TO SERVE AS SPEAKER, THE MOST PROMINENT CONSTITUTIONAL
POSITION STILL ACTIVE.

-- DESPITE TENSIONS BETWEEN RANABHAT AND HIS PARTY LEADERS
SINCE HIS APPOINTMENT AS SPEAKER, HE REMAINS INDISPUTABLY A
MEMBER OF THE NEPALI CONGRESS PARTY.

-- SINCE RANABHAT HAS NO INDEPENDENT POLITICAL FOLLOWING, HE
WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT THAN MANY OTHER CANDIDATES ON THE
NEPALI CONGRESS LEADERSHIP FOR POLICY GUIDANCE.

-- RANABHAT SHOULD BE ACCEPTABLE TO OTHER PARTIES, WITH WHICH
HE HAD WORKED WELL DURING HIS TENURE AS SPEAKER. (RANA SAID
HE BELIEVED THAT THE RPP AND SABHAVANA PARTIES ALREADY
SUPPORTED RANABHAT, AND DEUBA MAY BE MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION.)

-- THE SPEAKER HAS SAID PUBLICLY THAT HE WILL NOT CONTEST
FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS OR SEEK OTHER POLITICAL OFFICE.

WHAT HE DID NOT MENTION TO KOIRALA, RANA ADDED, IS THAT
RANABHAT HAS A BETTER REPUTATION FOR PROBITY THAN THE
POLITICAL PARTY LEADERS. DESPITE ALL THESE ADVANTAGES, RANA
SAID, RANABHAT'S CANDIDACY WAS REJECTED BY KOIRALA, WHO
ARGUED THAT THE SPEAKER WOULD BECOME ANOTHER DEUBA AND SPLIT
HIS PARTY AGAIN.


6. (C) ACCORDING TO RANA, THE KING'S NEXT STEP PROBABLY WOULD
BE TO CALL ANOTHER MEETING IN THE PALACE WITH ALL THE PARTIES
TO PRESENT THEM WITH AN ULTIMATUM. THE KING WOULD GIVE THEM
A LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME (PERHAPS AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS) TO
PROVIDE HIM WITH THE NAME OF AN AGREED CANDIDATE FOR PRIME
MINISTER. (RANA WAS UNSURE HOW MANY PARTIES WOULD BE INVITED
TO THIS MEETING. HE SAID THE KING MIGHT INVITE AS MANY AS
SEVEN OR EIGHT PARTIES ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY THERE ARE ONLY
THREE "NATIONAL PARTIES": THE NEPALI CONGRESS, THE CPN-UML,
AND THE RPP. OTHER PARTIES ARE RECOGNIZED BY THE ELECTION
COMMISSION AND HAD MEMBERS IN THE PAST PARLIAMENT EVEN THOUGH
THEY FAILED TO WIN EVEN THREE PERCENT OF THE TOTAL VOTE.
OTHER PARTIES, LIKE THE FACTION OF THE NEPALI CONGRESS HEADED
BY FORMER PM DEUBA AND THE BREAKAWAY FACTION OF THE SABHAVANA
PARTY, ARE NOT REGISTERED AS OFFICIAL PARTIES.) REGARDING THE
DEMAND OF THE FIVE AGITATING PARTIES THAT THE KING
ACKNOWLEDGE FORMALLY THAT HE IS RETURNING TO THE NEPALI
PEOPLE THE SOVEREIGNTY THAT HE ASSUMED "TEMPORARILY" HIMSELF
WHEN HE DISSOLVED THE GOVERNMENT IN OCTOBER 2003, RANA SAID,
THE KING WAS PREPARED TO RELEASE A STATEMENT TO THE PRESS TO
THAT EFFECT WHEN HE ANNOUNCES A NEW PRIME MINISTER. THE KING
IS NOT WILLING, HOWEVER, TO ACCEDE COMPLETELY TO THE PARTIES'
DEMAND THAT ALL CABINET PORTFOLIOS BE HELD BY PARTY MEMBERS.
THE KING IS INCLINED, RANA EXPLAINED, TO APPOINT A FEW
PROMINENT MEMBERS OF CIVIL SOCIETY TO HEAD ESPECIALLY
TECHNICAL MINISTRIES.


7. (C) RANA EXPLAINED THAT HE HAD NOT CONSULTED RECENTLY WITH
INDIAN AMBASSADOR SHYAM SARAN, BUT BELIEVED THAT SARAN, AFTER
STRENUOUS EFFORTS TO BROKER AN AGREEMENT AMONG THE PARTIES,
HAD CONCLUDED THAT GIRIJA KOIRALA AND MADHAV NEPAL WERE
"UNBENDABLE." IF ANYONE WOULD BE ABLE TO BRING THE PARTIES
AROUND, RANA SAID, IT WOULD BE THE INDIANS, AND THEY HAD
FAILED. HE SAID HE COULD NOT BE CERTAIN, BUT BELIEVED THAT
THE KING HAD CHARGED OTHER PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVES TO TRY TO
REASON WITH MADHAV NEPAL, HAS RANA HAD DONE WITH KOIRALA. ONE
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, HE NOTED, IS THAT THE PARTY LEADERS NO
LONGER INSIST THAT THE KING ADDRESS THEIR 18-POINT PROGRAM OR
DEMAND RESTORATION OF THE LAST PARLIAMENT. RANA ADMITTED
THAT THE KING DOES NOT ALWAYS FOLLOW HIS ADVICE, BUT HE HAD
PRESSED THE MONARCH TO MAKE A DECISION SOON BECAUSE
INACTIVITY WAS ERODING HIS POPULAR SUPPORT. THE KING COULD
CALL THE PARTIES TOGETHER AGAIN AS SOON AS MAY 31, HE
PREDICTED.


8. (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH PRABAKHAR RANA'S BRIEFING WAS, AS
USUAL, WELL-REASONED AND SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING IT IS STILL NOT
CLEAR THAT THE TWO MAJOR LEADERS OF THE AGITATING PARTIES ARE
RECONCILED TO ACCEPTING SOMEONE ELSE AS PRIME MINISTER AND
WILL EITHER BE ABLE TO REACH A CONSENSUS ON A NEW PM OR
SUPPORT A GOVERNMENT HEADED BY ANOTHER ROYAL APPOINTEE. IN
FACT, BEFORE THE DAY ENDED, A SPOKESMAN FOR THE NEPALI
CONGRESS PUBLICLY REJECTED THE NOTION OF TARANATH RANABHAT AS
PM. IF THE PRINCIPAL PARTIES REMAIN OBDURATE, A NEW
GOVERNMENT UNDER A NEW PRIME MINISTER WILL HAVE ACHIEVED
LITTLE TOWARD RESOLVING NEPAL'S POLITCAL IMPASSE. END
COMMENT.
BOGUE