TIGHT RACE FOR GOLKAR'S PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 003519


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: TIGHT RACE FOR GOLKAR'S PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AS
KALLA REPORTEDLY QUITS TO BECOME YUDHOYONO'S RUNNING MATE

Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Golkar party Chairman Akbar Tandjung and retired
General Wiranto vie in a tight race for Golkar's presidential
nomination. Although Akbar enjoys some institutional
advantages, we cannot predict the outcome of the April 20
Golkar convention, as hundreds of party chapters will
determine the winner in a semi-secret ballot in which,
apparently, bribery will play a substantial role. Whoever
wins, the convention will have a major and possibly decisive
impact on the presidential race. Golkar sources and advisors
to Democratic Party presidential nominee Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono have told us that Coordinating Minister for
People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla has decided to withdraw from the
convention and become Yudhoyono's running mate. A
Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket would have two capable leaders with
clean reputations, but absent further partners it lacks a
political machine with grassroots level presence. End
Summary.

THE GOLKAR CONVENTION
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2. (U) Golkar will hold its presidential convention on April
20 in Jakarta. Most Golkar officials describe it as
determining the party's presidential nominee, although Golkar
Chairman Akbar Tandjung has refused to guarantee that he will
seek the presidency if he wins the convention. The
convention begins with brief presentations by participants,
after which the party votes via a semi-secret balloting
process. (The Secretaries-General of provincial and
city/regency level chapters witness the voting of the chapter
chairpersons.) Convention rules state that whoever wins a
plurality wins the convention, but we understand Golkar
leaders might institute a runoff if no one wins a majority in
a first round vote.


3. (U) Lower level party branches hold the majority of the
convention voting power. There are 545 votes in play
(contrary to press reports which cite a variety of other
figures):

- The party Central Board has an 18-vote block (which Akbar
Tandjung apparently has locked up);
- 10 separate organizations associated with Golkar have one
vote apiece;
- 32 province-level party chapters have three-vote blocks; and
- 421 city/regency level party chapters have one vote apiece.

A TOUGH FIGHT
--------------


4. (C) Although six candidates currently participate in the
convention process -- Akbar Tandjung, Wiranto, Surya Paloh,
Aburizal Bakrie, Prabowo Subianto, and Jusuf Kalla -- all of
our contacts agree that the race comes down to Akbar and
Wiranto and remains too close to call. Members of both camps
told us recently that they had locked up roughly 200
convention votes and expected to prevail. Akbar enjoys some
institutional advantages: he has a strong network among
chapter heads; a long history of involvement in Golkar
politics; and can reward supporters with positions at the
party's upcoming (October) Congress (just as he could place
supporters on the party's list of legislative candidates).
Although the party appeared to fall short of its target in
the April 5 legislative elections, Akbar's supporters can
claim credit for the party's increase in the popular vote in
absolute terms; its new plurality in the House of
Representatives, including a gain of seats in absolute terms;
and its number-one finish in more provinces than in 1999.

THE MARKET VALUE OF CONVENTION VOTES
--------------


5. (C) Our contacts (and instincts) tell us bribery will play
a significant role in shaping the convention outcome. Nasir
Tamara, a Wiranto campaign advisor, told us his own camp
entices each city/regency chapter head with 25 million Rupiah
(almost 3,000 USD) for its vote, while provincial chapter
heads merited twice that sum. A separate Wiranto associate
alleged Akbar Tandjung offered "a huge amount of money" to
chapter heads. Meanwhile, Golkar Vice Chairman Aulia Rachman
told us that Akbar provided chapter heads a few thousand
dollars -- "to show respect" -- but that these sums paled in
comparison to those doled out by media magnate Surya Paloh:
almost 6,000 USD to the lower-level chapter heads and 1
billion Rupiah (over 100,000 USD) for provincial chapter
votes. (Comment: The latter figure strains credibility,
given Surya Paloh's poor prospects for winning, but we do not
doubt that Aulia passed this rumor along in good faith. End
comment.) Aulia claimed the strength of Akbar's network
would prevail, since Akbar encouraged chapter heads to accept
opponents' offers but vote for him anyway. According to a
Singaporean diplomat, Wiranto's camp prepared for that
possibility by offering half the payments up-front, with the
rest only after Wiranto's convention victory.

KALLA TO WITHDRAW, JOIN YUDHOYONO
--------------


6. (C) On April 16, Golkar Vice Chairman Fahmi Idris told us
he had spoken directly with Coordinating Minister for
People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla, who confirmed he would withdraw
from the convention and become retired General Yudhoyono's
running mate. Fahmi said Kalla -- who has never held a high
leadership position in Golkar -- would not bring extensive
party machinery to the ticket, but brought enough "Golkar
identity" that he would help Yudhoyono to become an
alternative choice in this election for traditional Golkar
voters. Fahmi, who has publicly aired his distaste for
Akbar, told us he would support the Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket.


7. (C) Two senior figures close to Yudhoyono also have told
us that this ticket seemed certain. In addition, politically
active retired General Luhut Panjaitan told us April 16 he
had confirmed that Kalla would join Yudhoyono, withdraw from
the Golkar convention, and resign from the cabinet. Luhut
hoped that Akbar, if triumphant at the convention, would
decide to throw Golkar's support behind the Yudhoyono-Kalla
ticket.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Yudhoyono advisors noted Kalla appeals to them partly
because of his prestige in East Indonesia, where Yudhoyono's
Democratic Party has little strength. He also strikes us as
a relatively ethical, intelligent, and competent person who
can work well with Yudhoyono. This combination -- the
subject of great speculation in the media recently -- appears
to enjoy strong support in the Indonesian business community,
partly because of Kalla's record as a successful businessman.
Neither, however, controls a strong political machine with
grassroots penetration; this could prove problematic.


9. (C) Kalla's withdrawal should boost Akbar's chances at the
convention; our contacts estimate more of his supporters lean
toward Akbar vice Wiranto. If Akbar does win, we would not
rule out his aligning with Yudhoyono, if offered substantial
incentives (e.g., cabinet positions). This alignment, for
the first round election, would appear more palatable to
Golkar leaders if Yudhoyono has assembled a coalition that
rivals Golkar in size. With full Golkar backing, Yudhoyono
would prove an extremely strong contender.


10. (C) On the other hand, however, Akbar could decide to run
for president. While he might have difficulty consolidating
support in Golkar, he could run a credible campaign,
particularly with a Javanese running mate with a reasonably
clean reputation and a degree of grassroots support. Akbar
could seek the presidency with the understanding that he
retains the fallback position of supporting Yudhoyono's
ticket in the runoff if Yudhoyono outperforms him in the
first round.


11. (C) Should Wiranto prevail at the convention, we would
expect him to move quickly to solidify his control over the
Golkar apparatus. He has cultivated extensive ties with
other parties and might pull the Prosperous Justice Party
(PKS) and Abdurrachman Wahid's National Awakening Party into
a coalition (septels report on affinity for Wiranto in PKS).
Together, those three parties appear to have won around 40
percent of the vote on April 5. This action could lead other
Islamic parties to jump on the bandwagon, generating strong
momentum for a powerful combination of cooperative Islamic
parties and Golkar's extensive machinery under the leadership
of a charismatic Javanese retired General.

BOYCE