Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04ISTANBUL1729
2004-11-19 08:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Istanbul
Cable title:  

REPUBLICAN PEOPLES' PARTY: IS THE YELLOW ROSE

Tags:  PGOV TU 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001729 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2014
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: REPUBLICAN PEOPLES' PARTY: IS THE YELLOW ROSE
WILTING?

REF: A. 03 ISTANBUL 1409


B. ANKARA 3158

C. ANKARA 2327

D. ANKARA 1905

Classified By: Acting Consul General Stuart Smith for Reasons 1.5 (b&d)


This cable was coordinated with Embassy Ankara.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001729

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2014
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: REPUBLICAN PEOPLES' PARTY: IS THE YELLOW ROSE
WILTING?

REF: A. 03 ISTANBUL 1409


B. ANKARA 3158

C. ANKARA 2327

D. ANKARA 1905

Classified By: Acting Consul General Stuart Smith for Reasons 1.5 (b&d)


This cable was coordinated with Embassy Ankara.


1. (sbu) Summary: Open warfare between main opposition CHP
leader Deniz Baykal and Mustafa Sarigul ("Yellow Rose" in
Turkish),the popular CHP mayor of Istanbul's Sisli district,
will probably lead to Sarigul's eviction from the party. Few
observers doubt that the corruption allegations against
Sarigul; it is equally obvious that Baykal is using the
issue to try to eliminate an upstart rival who has spent
months "campaigning" in front of staged rallies in Anatolia
far from his district. From Istanbul it appears that
Sarigul, who has made little effort to conceal his ambition
to replace Baykal, foolishly overplayed his cards. From
Ankara, we see the possibility that Sarigul, backed by
retired left-nationalist military officers and disgraced
former political heavyweights, may once again switch parties
and try to take over the moribund center-right DYP. However,
despite his image as a "common-touch" politician and his
enduring popularity, Sarigul lacks the party organization to
marry his overweening prime ministerial ambitions with facts
on the ground. In any event, the Baykal-Sarigul clash is
further degrading CHP's already heavily-damaged reputation.
End Summary.


2. (sbu) Beleaguered main opposition Republican People's
Party (CHP) has briefly raised its profile again on the back
of stories detailing party infighting and corruption. On
November 16, CHP Secretary General announced the findings of
an internal party investigation into corruption allegations
against Istanbul Sisli district mayor Mustafa Sarigul. The
report claims that Sarigul took USD 300,000 in bribes several
years ago to allow the construction of several illegal
buildings in Sisli and, as a result, recommends that he be
expelled from the party. Sarigul responded immediately,
calling the accusations baseless, charging the CHP leadership
with seeking to stifle the "people's will," and promising to
open a defamation suit.


3. (c) Based on what we know about Sarigul personally and
municipal politics in general, there is little doubt that the
CHP charges have merit; Sarigul is also the subject of a

simultaneous ongoing official corruption investigation. Both
the Consulate and the Embassy (refs) have heard reports of
Sarigul's corruption and unsavory business connections.
Granting dubious building permits or looking the other way on
illegal construction, moreover, is precisely how many local
district mayors cash in on their positions. On the other
hand, if USD 300,000 were the extent of Sarigul's corruption
(and given that he is known as "Mister 15 percent," such a
low figure is unlikely),that would probably make him one of
the cleaner mayors in Istanbul.


4. (c) As such, it is clear that CHP's investigation and
report were politically motivated. Even CHP party insider,
and another would-be Baykal challenger, Hursit Gunes admitted
to poloff that Baykal is simply eliminating a political
(albeit corrupt) rival. A wide range of CHP contacts have
told us for years that Sarigul enjoys little support within
the party structure, but his emergence in recent months as an
apparently viable challenger to Baykal had earned him the
support of several dissident MPs. According to Gunes,
however, this latest development may cost him even that
meager support (although about a dozen CHP MPs have defied
the party leadership's threats of punishment and promised to
attend a November 20 Sarigul rally in the southern port city
of Mersin).


5. (c) If he is eventually expelled from the party, as
contacts in Istanbul now expect, Sarigul may seek to
capitalize on his local popularity and name recognition by
forming his own party. Without an organized and effective
party base, however, it is unlikely that Sarigul would be
more than a flash in the pan. (Indeed, political observers
in Ankara point to the fact that Sarigul buses in supporters
for his Anatolian rallies, another sign that his popular
support outside Istanbul is no more than media hype). On the
other hand, we have heard in Ankara that, backed by
now-disgraced former ANAP PM Yilmaz and former DSP Deputy PM
Ozkan, Sarigul may try to work out a deal with current
center-right DYP leader Agar and, switching parties for the
third time, take over DYP.


6. (sbu) The more immediate question is how much this latest
leadership struggle in CHP will further damage CHP's already
poor image as a lackluster opposition party. For better or
worse, Sarigul is one of the CHP's most telegenic
politicians, at least in Istanbul. He won reelection on
March 28 with almost 70 percent of the vote in Sisli and he
has used his public relation skills and establishment allies
to stay in the press. Expulsion from CHP may benefit Baykal
personally, but further heightens the Baykal-imposed bunker
mentality in CHP. Gunes acknowledged, for example, that
targeting Sarigul, while other more corrupt senior CHP
officials sit untouched, is a further blow to CHP's
credibility.

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