JOYCE MUJURU SLATED FOR VICE-PRESIDENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001914

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR BNEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2009
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: JOYCE MUJURU SLATED FOR VICE-PRESIDENCY

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.5 b/d


1. (C) SUMMARY: The ruling ZANU-PF party has probably
temporarily deferred succession tensions within its ranks by
tapping Minister of Water Resources and Infrastructural
Development Joyce Mujuru as its second Vice-President at
party provincial meetings on November 21. Provincial
executives left the party's remaining leadership intact,
signalling little change in leadership chemistry or in Robert
Mugabe's unrivalled supremacy as the party heads into its
upcoming Party Congress in early December. The party's
selection processes appeared to function quite
democratically, with no apparent intervention by Mugabe to
direct a particular outcome. END SUMMARY.

Mujuru In, Presidium Otherwise Intact
--------------


2. (U) Ruling party provincial executives on November 21
nominated Joyce Mujuru, the wife of retired General Solomon
Mujuru, to assume ZANU-PF's Vice-Presidential slot vacated on
the death of Simon Muzenda last year. Provincial executives
also nominated three incumbents to round out the ruling
party's presidium: President and First Secretary Robert
Mugabe, Vice-President and Second Secretary Joseph Msika, and
Chairman John Nkomo. The four candidates are expected to be
approved when the Fifth Party Congress convenes December 1-5
in Harare. Mujuru would then in all likelihood join Msika as
one of the Government's two Vice-Presidents. The Constition
provides that the President can appoint up to two
Vice-Presidents, which historically have always been the
ZANU-PF Vice-Presidents.


3. (U) While Mugabe's position was unchallenged, the three
other senior positions in ZANU-PF were hotly contested.
Mujuru was the choice of six of ten provincial councils,
edging out Speaker of the Parliament and Party Secretary for
Administration Emmerson Mnangagwa. The octegenarian Msika,
who was long reported to be under pressure to step down, was
tipped by seven councils over the party's Women League boss
Thenjiwe Lesabe, who was the preference of three. John Nkomo
beat Minister of Justice, Legal, and Parliamentary Affairs
Patrick Chinamasa, six provinces to four.

Women's Wing Asserts Itself
--------------


4. (SBU) Mujuru's star has risen rapidly since September,
when the party's Women's League resolved to submit a woman
candidate for the vice-presidency and the popular press
continued to push the issue. Advocates cited a 1999 party
resolution and SADC-related undertakings on gender diversity
in leadership representation to bolster their case. Under
pressure from the Women's League, the politburo on November
18 reportedly resolved that one of the four presidium
positions should be held by a woman. Foremost candidates
were Mujuru and Thenjiwe Lesabe, the party's senior woman who
hails from the ZAPU wing of ZANU-PF and whose chances would
have been enhanced had Msika stepped down. In a November 20
interview publicized in the state media, President Mugabe
publicly endorsed the notion of having a woman
Vice-President.

Mugabe on Top With No Succession Line
--------------


5. (C) As an exercise to tip the balance in the party's sub
rosa succession struggle, the selection process was
inconclusive but will probably shelve the issue temporarily.
Under the Constitution, Mugabe can designate either VP to
assume the duties of the presidency if Mugabe is unable to
perform them. If Mugabe were to die or become permanently
incapacitated, the designated VP would serve as President
only until a new presidential election were held within
ninety days. Neither Msika nor Mujuru command a wide or
secure enough standing in the party to be the likely ruling
party candidate in such an election, thus setting the stage
for a short-fused and uncertain succession battle should
Mugabe suddenly depart the stage. (The Muzenda/Mujuru VP
slot, ascribed to the ZANU party wing would generally be
considered to be ahead of the ZAPU-descended Msika slot.) In
the meantime, however, Mugabe's position atop the party seems
as unchallenged as ever. Indeed, his unwillingness to anoint
a successor throughout the process contributed to the
eventual selection of an unthreatening figure -- one who
emerged after other more powerful candidates had been cut
down by enemies and rivals with no apparent effort on
Mugabe's part.

Mnangagwa's Waterloo?
--------------


6. (C) The process' big loser was Mnangagwa, long assumed by
many to be Mugabe's preferred successor. The Speaker had
withstood repeated investigations of financial scandal,
sometimes reportedly with the President's intervention on his
behalf. Despite both having positioned many of his
supporters in the party's provincial restructuring over the
past year and knowing where everybody's skeletons were,
Mnangagwa's troops failed to back him decisively at this
critical moment. Whether they did not trust him or thought
him too "unelectable" to head the party (or both),key
supporters defected once Mugabe endorsed the party's gender
resolution. Mnangagwa no doubt was hurt by the unprecedented
assertiveness of the party's women's wing, but may have been
done in even more by machinations of rivals. Reputed
"kingmaker" Solomon Mujuru (Joyce's spouse, although the two
reportedly do not live together),for example, reportedly
told Mnangagwa in front of other party leaders that Mnangagwa
would never be the party's leader as long as he was alive.
Having previously staged comebacks with Mugabe's help from
defeats in his race for Party Chairman (against John Nkomo)
in 2000 and in his parliamentary race against the MDC the
same year, Mnangagwa's star may have been eclipsed for the
last time.

Other Losers
--------------


7. (C) No provinces backed announced VP candidate Didymus
Mutasa, the mercurial ethnic Manyika and Party Secretary for
External Affairs, or Vitalis Zvinavashe, the retired General
who had had held himself out as a candidate for unspecified
national office. The unsuccessful Lesabe may have been
pushed by Mnanagagwa forces to meet the gender resolution's
requirement at Msika's expense (in the ZAPU-wing slot)
instead of Mnangagwa's. Chinamasa's stealth run for the
Party chairmanship (it was unreported in the popular press)
is interesting. Often viewed as a hard-liner technocrat with
little constituency and totally reliant on the Mugabe's
favor, he managed to take four provinces. He and Lesabe may
have been on some kind of ticket with Mnangagwa; the three of
them took three provinces (Matabeleland South, Masvingo, and
Midlands),with Chinamasa also picking up his home province
of Manicaland and Mnangagwa surprisingly taking Bulawayo.
(Curiously, Bulawayo alone defied the party's gender
resolution by not choosing a woman for any slot.) Party
Chairman John Nkomo, oft-cited as a candidate to succeed
Mugabe, was rumored to have had the inside track on the Msika
slot had Msika stepped down.

Some Disgruntled, Likely Quiet
--------------


8. (C) Some party constituencies are likely left grumbling
by the Veepstakes' resolution. Many in the country's
Karanga ethnic group - Zimbabwe's most numerous - had long
argued that it was "their turn," and that one of their ranks
should be the next in line to run the country after Mugabe, a
Zezuru. The elevation of Mujuru, also a Zezuru, leaves the
party's two highest ranking ZANU-wing figures both from the
same clan. (Msika is an ethnic Manyika from the ZAPU wing of
the party.) Also disappointed will be some of the party's
young Turks, who hoped the naming of the Vice-President would
more decisively signal the party's succession course. Their
frustrations will likely simmer along quietly for now but may
heat up as the end of Mugabe's term approaches in 2008.

Party Processes Functioning
--------------


9. (C) The party showed itself capable of following its
processes in an orderly (and yes, even somewhat democratic)
manner in conducting what was a fractious contest for an
important position. Different factions and figures all
participated in a remarkably inclusive process. We are
unaware of evidence that President Mugabe stepped in to exert
decisive influence; quite the contrary, several insider
reports indicated that Msika resisted Mugabe's (and others')
efforts to get him to relinquish his VP seat and that Mugabe
otherwise kept above the fray. Alas, the party still seems
unprepared to show as much equanimity in its inter-party
relations as it has in its intra-party processes. Indeed,
the dichotomy between relative democracy within ZANU-PF and
the party's/government's repressive practices nationally only
underscores Mugabe's continuing vision of "democratic"
one-party state. Finally, it remains to be seen whether,
with succession tensions subdued somewhat for now, a
healthier policy-making dynamic can take shape among the
inward-looking leadership.
DELL