MDC QUIETLY CULTIVATING DOMESTIC ALLIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001009

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR LAROIAN, MRAYNOR
NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR D. TEITELBAUM
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2009
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC QUIETLY CULTIVATING DOMESTIC ALLIES

REF: : A. HARARE 987 B. HARARE 958 C. HARARE 752 D.
HARARE 487

Classified By: Political Officer Bianca Menendez under Section 1.5 d


1. (C) SUMMARY: Discussions with MDC officials reveal
continued hope within the party for the success of mass
action and a broad alliance of civic groups. Discouraged by
unsuccessful efforts in court and in recent elections, the
party leadership plans to press the ruling party through mass
action (still without a time table) and a petition for
electoral reform. Party officials confirmed the MDC's recent
absorption of a lesser party, said another was planned, and
optimistically predicted the defection of some ruling party
MPs and mid-level officials. END SUMMARY.

Mass Action and Popular Petition
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2. (C) Ghandi Mudzingwa, MDC Director of Presidential
Affairs, on June 8 told poloffs that, as a result of party
restructuring (ref C) the MDC was now organizationally and
strategically focused on the 2005 elections -- though a final
decision had not been made to participate or boycott those
elections. Under the overarching "elections directorate"
Mudzingwa confirmed that he was now also responsible for
creating a "broad alliance" with civil society organizations
and the party. As the MDC has not been able to organize
freely, the main goal of the broad alliance would be to
employ other autonomous like-minded organizations to mobilize
their memberships to be more politically active. Key
partners in the alliance are the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade
Unions (ZCTU),the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA),
and the Zimbabwe Liberators' Platform (ZLP). Other members
include the Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe (EFZ),the
Zimbabwe Council of Churches (ZCC),the Catholic Commission
for Justice and Peace (CCJP) and student groups. Mudzingwa
said the alliance had agreed on a "charter for change" but
that that agreement would not be announced publicly. Initial
activities would include a petition on electoral reform,
prayer meetings, and organizing neighborhood crime watches.
Mass action was the ultimate goal, but Mudzingwa did not
suggest when the alliance would be ready for that.


3. (C) Mudzingwa said MDC,s initial goal was to collect
500,000 signatures from throughout the country on the
electoral reform petition but that the goal had risen to as
many as 7 million. He said he thought 7 million was
ambitious. MDC will be seeking signatures in rural as well as
urban areas to show that the majority of the country supports
MDC.

Boycott, Defections?
--------------


4. (C) T. William Bango, Personal Assistant to the MDC
President, told poloffs June 10 that the courts and elections
were not proving effective (ref A),so the party would rely
more on the broad alliance and mass action, which would press
MDC,s agenda by shutting down the country. He said the
public was losing faith in elections, which should prompt
more participation in mass action. He said that the majority
of the country was young people for whom ZANU-PF,s message
of land reform did not resonate. Instead, he said, the
younger generation was interested in the jobs and lifestyles
consistent with an industrialized, urban economy.


5. (C) Bango said that, although the party had made no final
decision, if the MDC was not successful in pressing for
election reform, the party might stay away from the March
2005 parliamentary elections because participation in the
elections would legitimize them and diminish the MDC,s
credibility.


6. (C) Bango confirmed that, on June 3, Shakespeare Maya,
President the National Alliance for Good Governance (NAGG, a
tiny opposition party with no elected officials) dissolved
his party and joined the MDC. Mudzingwa said that MP Wilson
Kumbula of another small party, ZANU-Ndonga, which holds one
seat in Parliament, had also committed his party to joining
the MDC but would not make that announcement until after
parliamentary elections had been formally called so as not to
open his seat to a by-election. Bango also asserted that 22
mid-level members of ZANU-PF, including some MPs, would be
crossing the floor to MDC. He said that discussions with
these members began in January and that their crossover could
be announced in July. He said that these members were
dissatisfied with ZANU-PF,s direction.

Comment:
--------------


7. (C) The impotence of its legal and election strategies
fuels the opposition party,s continued toying with mass
action notwithstanding the failure of last year,s effort.
Our interlocutors, reports on mass action largely echo
earlier reports (refs C, D),however, and suggest that
purported action plans are no closer to achieving critical
mass. The petition idea is new and, if it gathers momentum,
may pose tactical challenges to the ruling party,s modest
charm offensive (ref B). The reported absorption of NAGG and
putative defection of ZANU-Ndonga would do little to affect
the gross political imbalance of power here, and we are
skeptical of Bango,s claim that any ZANU-PF members are
prepared to cross the aisle.

SULLIVAN