BERGER ASKS FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE TO PLAN RADICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000584

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2014
TAGS: PREL MOPS MARR GT
SUBJECT: BERGER ASKS FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE TO PLAN RADICAL
REDUCTION OF GUATEMALAN MILITARY

Classified By: PolOff Robert E. Copley for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Frustrated by military foot-dragging,
President Oscar Berger has formally requested US assistance
with developing a plan to shrink his military. We have
mapped out a process of engagement using E-IMET funds to
contract specialized expertise at the Center for Civil
Military Relations (CCMR),and the Defense Resource
Management Institute (DRMI),but urgently need our 2004
E-IMET funding released, as well as an additional $150,000,
to seize this opportunity. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador, PolCouns, DATT, and MilGroup Commander
met with Vice President Stein, at his request, on March 2 to
discuss ways we can assist. Stein told the Ambassador that
Berger has concluded that his military command is
unable/unwilling to come up with a workable plan to
rationally downsize. Berger was impressed, according to
Stein, that we had predicted (in a memo to Stein two weeks
earlier) almost precisely the response he received from the
military to his orders to plan a drawdown. Berger is
determined to make the most of his new government's honeymoon
with the press and civil society by taking on the most
difficult tasks upfront. Reducing the military's drain on
the budget holds the greatest potential to free up resources
for Berger's cash-strapped administration.


3. (C) Stein also told us Berger has tasked him, along with
Minister of Finance Maria Antonietta Bonilla, to engage with
the Defense Ministry to find a legal way to cut the
military's budget to Q500 million (roughly $63 million).
This would be down from a formal budget of twice that and an
effective budget nearly three times as large, due to
transfers (although much of this extra money probably does
not reach the military). Berger wants to reduce the
military's troop levels drastically, by up to 16,000 (out of
approximately 27,000).

What we are currently doing to help
--------------

4. (C) The Ambassador and MilGroup Commander outlined
upcoming seminars for Stein--DRMI, 15-26 March and CCMR,
19-21 April--that will provide civilian decision-makers with
quantitative tools to build and manage defense budgets and to
plan force reductions. Stein was interested and appreciative
but stressed that the Berger administration also needs
objective assessments of the military's current situation,
adding that his government lacks the resources to hire an
outside contractor. To address this need, Dr. Tom Bruneau
and MG (r) Dick Goetze, both from CCMR, met with the
Ambassador and Mil Group Commander on March 6. As a result
of that meeting, we have set up a meeting for these CCMR
officials with Berger on March 24. CCMR will then modify its
19-12 April seminar to take the President's views on roles,
missions and the like into account. We have continuing
resolution funds to cover the CCMR and DRMI seminars.
However, we urgently need our '04 E-IMET funding released in
order to pay for the March 24 executive session and to
sustain the momentum we have behind this important initiative.

What we could do with a little more money
--------------

5. (C) Following the DRMI and CCMR seminars, we will need to
deploy a series of functionally focused mobile education
teams to design specific transformation/downsizing plans for
implementing Berger's directives. We have identified, in
consultations with CCMR, an immediate requirement for
additional E-IMET funds in the amount of approximately
$150,000 to fund one iteration of the "Civil-Military
Relations Pre-Survey" - MASL P309073 (approximately $30K),
and three tailored iterations of the "Civilian Control of the
Armed Forces in a Democracy: Methods, Techniques, and
Application" mobile education team - MASL #309152
(approximately $40K each). We are already looking for
programs that could be put off until next year in an effort
to cobble together funding. Ideally, extra E-IMET funding
could be made available to Guatemala as a consequence of
redistribution of funds under the American Servicemember's
Protection Act. If additional funding is unavailable, we
could probably pull already programmed money from our current
year E-IMET budget, but cancellation penalties would limit
what we can accomplish.

Political Concerns
--------------

6. (C) Stein is a little worried that Berger's timeframe is
too aggressive and that such a drastic cut could cause the
military to balk, or worse. He also expressed concern that,
at the same time Berger is challenging the military, he is
confronting organized crime by suspending dubious contracts
at the ports. As yet, we detect no reaction in the military
that would be cause for concern, but will remain alert.
Comment
--------------

7. (C) In addition to taking on organized crime, Berger has
apparently decided to challenge the military (and all others
who benefit from its large and non-transparent budget).
Cutting the military budget in half amounts to throwing down
the gauntlet and is a gusty move. It is in our interest that
Berger not only prevail, but that he manages to produce a
modern, professional force--not just a smaller version of the
current military. We have an opportunity to help out and
would appreciate a positive response to our resource needs.
HAMILTON