Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04GUATEMALA1460
2004-06-10 23:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Guatemala
Cable title:  

BREAKFAST WITH BERGER: PROGRESS ON MILITARY

Tags:  PGOV MASS MCAP GT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 001460 

SIPDIS

WHA FOR DAS DAN FISK; WHA/CEN FOR LINDWALL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2009
TAGS: PGOV MASS MCAP GT
SUBJECT: BREAKFAST WITH BERGER: PROGRESS ON MILITARY
DOWNSIZING, STEIN TO VISIT, DEALING WITH HUMAN RIGHTS
CRITICISMS, JOINT MAYA JAGUAR WITH BELIZE, OBSTACLE FOR
FISCAL REFORM


Classified By: A/DCM Steven S. Olson for reason 1.5 (d)

Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 001460

SIPDIS

WHA FOR DAS DAN FISK; WHA/CEN FOR LINDWALL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2009
TAGS: PGOV MASS MCAP GT
SUBJECT: BREAKFAST WITH BERGER: PROGRESS ON MILITARY
DOWNSIZING, STEIN TO VISIT, DEALING WITH HUMAN RIGHTS
CRITICISMS, JOINT MAYA JAGUAR WITH BELIZE, OBSTACLE FOR
FISCAL REFORM


Classified By: A/DCM Steven S. Olson for reason 1.5 (d)

Summary
--------------

1. (C) At breakfast with Ambassador June 10, President
Berger expressed appreciation for U.S. assistance to date on
military downsizing and accepted that we would need a better
idea of how the money would be used before asking the
Congress to unfreeze the $2.2 million of MAP funds. Vice
President Stein plans to travel to Washington the week of
June 28 to help make Guatemala's case. The military is
impatient to see signs that "modernization" will accompany
downsizing, but the government doesn't have the funds. The
Guatemalans have good arguments to counter reports of police
violence during squatter evictions (representatives of the
Human Rights Ombudsman were present in all cases and did not
report violence) and hiring of demobilized military to
strengthen the police (only enlisted men need apply). Closed
military bases may not all be sold commerically to raise
cash, but instead could be sold in parcels with long term
financing to resolve longstanding and complex conflicts.
Berger was enthusiastic about a joint Guatemala-Belize Maya
Jaguar exercise, perhaps trumping lower level reservations.
Talks with leaders of recent demonstrations suggest that the
fiscal reform process could take longer than hoped. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) Ambassador hosted breakfast for President Berger,
Vice President Stein, Foreign Minister Briz, Chief of Staff
Gonzalez, and Appointments Secretary Vila on June 10 at the
Residence. ADCM/EconCouns, AID Deputy Director and MILGROUP
Commander also attended. Berger had asked to meet to discuss
assistance with his ambitious military downsizing plan.

Military Downsizing
--------------

3. (C) Berger was upbeat and confident that the personnel
reduction in the military to 15,500 men and women would be
completed by June 30. The process was on schedule, and
thorny issues such as financing pensions (the IPM) and
severance pay had been settled. However, he sensed

uneasiness in the ranks that the promised modernization of
the military was lagging. This was feeding rumors that all
the talk of modernization was only a facade and that Berger's
real intention was to abolish the army. The government had
no resources with which to prove the doubters wrong. He
asked the status of U.S. efforts to help.


4. (C) The Ambassador described the current state of play
of the two initiatives currently underway: the continuing
support from the Center for Civil Military Relations in
Monterrey CA, with the planned visit of MG (r) Dick Goetze to
discuss an "opportunity agenda" for modernization; and the
work of a SouthCom military assessment team, currently in
country. The Ambassador said that State and DoD had agreed
to approach the Congress together to review the possibility
of releasing the $2.227 million of frozen MAP funds, but the
agencies wanted to be prepared to answer questions concerning
how the funds would be used. The SouthCom team currently in
country was reviewing that question and assessing the
military's most pressing needs. It was also looking at the
larger question of the scope and cost of transforming the
military into the sort of leaner and more capable force that
the President wanted. Berger was clearly pleased. He said
that the military didn't need guns or ammunition; it needed
the equipment necessary to carry out new roles such as
responding to a natural disaster.

Selling Assets to Finance Downsizing? Not Always
-------------- --------------

5. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the sale of military
properties could finance the modernization. Berger responded
that it could in part, but the issue was still under study.
He did not want, a priori, to assume that selling closed
bases was always the best option. He planned instead to
convoke local government and civil society to seek a
consensus over the best use of land and any facilities. In
some cases, a commerical cash sale might turn out to be the
best option, but he cited the base in Ixcan, Quiche, as a
case where providing the land to local campesinos (i.e.,
selling it with appropriate long term financing) could prove
the key to resolving the source of complex historical
conflicts in that particularly troubled area. He added that
giving out land alone wouldn't work; there would have to be
agricultural extension services and other follow-up by the
government for the land to generate income.

Stein to Washington
--------------

6. (C) The Ambassador said that it would be important for
the Congress to hear from Guatemala about progress in
military downsizing. There was widespread enthusiasm in
Washington when people heard about Guatemala's plans, but
some skepticism was inevitable until concrete results were in
evidence. The Ambassador encouraged Berger to use the coming
visits of Codels Blunt and Shelby to explain his plans and
describe the impressive results to date. He also encouraged
Berger to send his emissaries to Washington. Vice President
Stein told Ambassador on the way out that he would plan to
take a group to Washington the week of June 28.

What Concerns Washington
--------------

7. (C) The Ambassador previewed what he thought
Washington's principal concerns would be when Guatemalan
visitors presented themselves. The human rights community
was concerned by reports of 24 recent cases of evictions of
campesinos from land they had occupied; by the reported
complicity of the military in the escape from arrest of Mack
case defendant Col. Valencia Osorio and continued failure to
take him back in custody; and by the prospect of demobilized
military joining and taking charge of the National Civilian
Police (PNC). Other areas of concern were transparency in
the military budget, changing the Constitution and naming a
Civilian Minister of Defense, and lack of progress on
creating CICIACS.

Eviction Violence: Not True
--------------

8. (C) Vice President Stein addressed the reports of
evictions of campesinos from land they had invaded. He said
the reports of police violence, circulated by campesino
activist group CONIC via its website, simply were not true.
He said that a representative of the Human Rights Ombudsman's
office had been present at each of the eviction sites and --
with one exception -- had filed no reports of violence. He
noted that pictures that had circulated showing campesinos
standing by burned-down shacks and destroyed crops showed no
evidence of a police presence. All eviction operations were
undertaken by uniformed police, and there were no pictures
showing uniformed people. He could not rule out that armed
men appearing in some photos were members of private security
forces of landowners where evictions took place, but CONIC
was not alleging that private forces were the problem. Stein
noted that police did misbehave in one case after finding,
and consuming, a stash of beer. Berger said that the
government's agreement with organizers of the June 8
nationwide demonstrations called for a 90 moratorium on
evictions to ensure that land dispute agency CONTIERRA had
adequately researched cases and exhausted mediation
possibilities and that court supervision of evictions was
adequate.

Ex-Military and the Police
--------------

9. (C) Berger said that military troops were a natural
source for recruiting rank-and-file police, as they were
trained in using weapons and well disciplined. He was
categorical in declaring, however, that the government would
not transfer former military officers into positions of
command in the PNC.

Belize
--------------

10. (C) The Ambassador outlined U.S. thinking on a joint
Guatemala-Belize Maya Jaguar counternarcotics operation. He
noted that traffickers had responded to a successful
operation in Guatemala by shifting their flights toward
Belize, with the result that the two following operations
found nothing. The traffickers could spot the movement of
Chinook and Blackhawk helicopters in advance of the operation
and simply change their plans. The U.S. was therefore
considering basing the helicopters in Belize but being
prepared to chase tracks into Guatemala. Berger said he
thought it was a great idea and that it wouldn't be a problem.


11. (C) Foreign Minister Briz commented that relations with
Belize were getting better (after a bad meeting between
Berger and PM Musa in Guadalajara and the recent hot pursuit
of a helicopter by Guatemalans some 250 meters into Belizean
territory, where it crash landed.) He had sent an emissary
to Belize to discuss recovery of the helicopter, and matters
seemed to be moving forward. He had also discussed the
border issue with his Belizean counterpart at the OAS
ministerial in Quito, and they had agreed to meet in
Washington on July 16 and 17. He agreed to receive the
Ambassador on June 14 to discuss these matters further.

Fiscal Reform
--------------

12. (C) Berger said that progress on fiscal reform was less
encouraging than he had hoped. Organizers of the June 8
demonstrations with whom he'd spoken June 9 were insisting on
discussing in detail the components of tax policy together
with the 2004 and 2005 budgets. Berger commented, "That
would take all year" and added that it was time to do quickly
what was possible and move on to other things. Berger vented
briefly against the Chamber of Industries' (Comment: Jaime
Arimany, known for occasional ill-considered outbursts. End
Comment). He added that opponents from the left "had a
point" when they argued that if "3 percent of the people make
80 percent of the money, it's obvious who has to pay the
taxes."

Warm Welcome in Washington
--------------

13. (C) Berger described his April-May visit to Washington
in glowing terms. He said that President Bush and Secretary
Powell treated him "as if we were old friends" and "knew
everything about Guatemala." He was evidently impressed by
the extent to which the President and Secretary were briefed,
and he was particularly struck by the Secretary's warmth and
personality. He expressed condolences for the death of
President Regan and said a letter was on its way.

Comment
--------------

14. (C) Berger was chipper and upbeat. His expectations of
what we can do to help him with military downsizing appear to
be grounded in reality, and he seems pleased with what we
have done to date. He was on top of the issues and had
strong and immediate responses to the principal criticisms of
his government that are circulating here and abroad, such as
evictions (where Vice President Stein is a particularly
credible spokesman) and inclusion of former soldiers in the
police. The one case where he couldn't deliver was the
disappearance of Valencia Osorio. He nevertheless appeared
to take on board that it was an issue that should be pursued.
His reaction to a possible joint Maya Jaguar with Belize
clearly caught Foreign Minister Briz by surprise. Briz was
still furious with the Belizeans days earlier because they
wouldn't return the Guatemalan helicopter immediately. With
luck, Berger made the command decision that can help put the
helicopter issue behind us (or at least to the side) and make
Maya Jaguar work.
HAMILTON