EXECUTIVE RALLIES BEHIND CICIACS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001213

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR DRL: DANIKA WALTERS, WHA/CEN AND WHA/PPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV GT
SUBJECT: EXECUTIVE RALLIES BEHIND CICIACS


1. This is an action request. See para 8.


2. (SBU) Summary: President Berger has taken the first step
to salvage the GOG-UN agreement to create a UN Commission to
Investigate Clandestine Groups (CICIACS) by convincing the
Congressional leadership to withdraw the agreement to the
Executive before a planned plenary vote. By pulling the
agreement before a vote, the Executive is now free to
resubmit it to Congress after it has been renegotiated with
the UN. The GOG's strategy for getting the agreement
implemented is not yet entirely clear, making it difficult to
predict its ultimate outcome or timing. What is clear is
that the Berger Administration is intent on giving CICIACS
another try in some form. A recent visit by UN A/SecGen
Prendergast and positive statements by President Berger, Vice
President Stein, Attorney General Florido and others have
helped tip the balance in favor of a modified CICIACS
agreement. End Summary.


3. (U) On May 11, President Berger formally requested that
Congress return CICIACS to the Executive without a plenary
vote, which would have certainly been negative following
negative votes in the Human Rights and Government
Commissions. The Ambassador had convinced CICIACS' main
opponent in Congress, Antonio Arenales Forno of the FRG, to
permit the move. The Congressional plenary, in a quick and
informal roll-call on May 12, ratified the Congressional
leadership's consent to the President's request without
opposition. As a result, the Executive will be able to
renegotiate the agreement with the United Nations and
resubmit it to Congress without delay.


4. (SBU) Visiting United Nations Assistant Secretary General
Kieran Prendergast met with the Ambassador and European
diplomats on May 10 to discuss the state of play on CICIACS.
According to Prendergast, Vice President Stein has formed a
task force which will make recommendations to him on how to
proceed toward CICIACS implementation within two weeks. The
task force's mandate includes developing a strategy and
proposal for changes to the agreement, to be negotiated with
the UN. The composition of a later commission to oversee the
implementation of these proposals for the GOG is still
undecided. Presidential Human Rights Commissioner Frank
LaRue told HROff on May 11 that the GOG would likely
renegotiate some points of the agreement with the UN, send it
to the Constitutional Court for an opinion on
constitutionality (to head off Congressional criticism),and
re-submission for consideration by Congress.


6. (SBU) President Berger commented publicly on May 11 that
"CICIACS must work in tandem with the Public Ministry, but
not be a part of it. If that is unconstitutional, they
should work together." Taking his cue from the President,
Attorney General Juan Luis Florido publicly supported a
renegotiated CICIACS for the first time on May 11, saying
"the Public Ministry would accept a proposal which
strengthens it," but said any new agreement must "subordinate
CICIACS to the Public Ministry." Florido has quietly opposed
CICIACS up to now, but changed his tune after meeting with
Prendergast and UN Senior Political Officer Martha Doggett.
In a meeting with the DCM on May 12, Florido implied that
relatively minor textual changes would be needed to win his
support. He indicated that he believed those changes would
also be acceptable to the UN. In addition, Sergio Morales,
Human Rights Ombudsman, spoke to the UNE bench May 12, urging
the deputies to vote in favor of CICIACS when it returns to
Congress to further the fight against organized crime.


7. (SBU) Comment: CICIACS ultimate fate depends on the
Berger/Stein Administration's political will and skill.
After Congress' initial setback, President Berger and Vice
President Stein have taken the first step towards
resuscitating CICIACS. However, CICIACS remains in limbo
while the GOG task force is formed and comes up with its
strategy. We expect that strategy to include renegotiation
with the UN of aspects of the agreement relating to the
relationship with Florido's Public Ministry. To pass
Congress, the new text must address constitutional concerns
of the FRG's Arenales and/or Security Commissioner Otto Perez
Molina, leader of the Patriotic Party, a member of the ruling
GANA coalition. Final passage will be fiercely opposed by
clandestine interests themselves, which are believed by LaRue
to be using money to lobby against it in Congress. It is
still too early to know what timetable will emerge from the
Executive for CICIACS' implementation.


8. (SBU) Action Request. Embassy requests that DRL and WHA
hold obligated funds for CICIACS until the timetable for
implementation is more clear. In the meantime, we will alert
the GOG that USG funding is time-bound, and report subsequent
developments.
HAMILTON