Local and European Elections in Ireland:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000868

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL EUN
SUBJECT: Local and European Elections in Ireland:
Ahern Government to Take Hits, But Not At
Expense of TransAtlantic Relationship

REFERENCE: Dublin 811


1. (SBU) Summary: Local and European Parliament
elections on June 11 will be a referendum on Irish PM
Ahern's Fianna Fail-led coalition government, as
voters have their first say since returning the
government to office in 2002. Ahern's FF party is
expected to take sizeable hits for failure to deliver
on the domestic agenda; foreign policy issues,
including Iraq, do not feature prominently in the
debate. The political opposition looks set to make
healthy gains, particularly the left-leaning Labour
and Sinn Fein parties. After EU enlargement, Irish
MEP seats were reduced from 15 to 13; with local
issues dominant, we do not anticipate any hardening
of views on the TransAtlantic relationship. End
Summary.

Local Elections A Referendum on Ahern Government
-------------- ---


2. (SBU) Local and European elections were last
held in Ireland in 1999, with PM Bertie Ahern's
Fianna Fail taking 383 of the 883 county and city
council seats nationwide. Current polling indicates
the party is down eight percent in support from 1999,
and we expect Fianna Fail to lose anywhere from 50 to
100 seats come June 11. The public, while not openly
hostile to the government, is still critical of the
government's failure to deliver on its 2002 general
election manifesto, with spending cuts in education
and health care the most sensitive issues. Anything
over a 50 seat loss will spell trouble for Ahern,
whose personal popularity rating is in the low 40s.
A meltdown in the local elections may re-ignite
rumors about Ahern's departure for the EU Commission
(reftel). Though unlikely to signal his imminent
departure, a poor return may prompt Ahern to be more
radical in a Cabinet shuffle expected during the
summer recess.

Growth of the Left
--------------


3. (SBU) Despite the downturn in government
support, moderate opposition party Fine Gael is
failing to capitalize on voter unhappiness. Fine
Gael, decimated in the 2002 general election, is
struggling to convince the electorate it is still
relevant, and to hold on to its 278 local seats. A
loss of more than fifty seats would spell doom for
party leader Enda Kenny, and leave many questioning
Fine Gael's future.


4. (SBU) The largest beneficiaries are likely to be
the Labour Party, which has raised its profile with
strong anti-war views, and Sinn Fein, which is
focusing on marginalized inner-city communities.
Polls indicate that Labour's bounce will be smaller
than Sinn Fein's, with the latter expected to double
its current low baseline of 21 local seats. The
Green Party and Independent candidates may attract a
small protest vote, but are unlikely to figure in the
overall scheme of things.

European Parliament Candidates
--------------


5. (SBU) Under the Nice Treaty, which paved the
way for EU enlargement, Ireland's representation in
the European Parliament was cut from 15 to 13 seats.
With eight of the current MEPs retiring, the
competition for seats is fierce and wide open.
Fianna Fail will struggle to hold on to its six
seats, while Fine Gael and Labour may add to their
seats (four and one, respectively). Fine Gael's
likely success in the EP elections, in contrast to
the local elections, is based on a smart selection of
candidates, with a slate that balances youth with
experience. Sinn Fein hopes to win its first MEP
seat, but polls suggest this will be a struggle. The
Greens may lose both their MEP slots.


6. (SBU) Likely MEP winners include Dublin Lord
Mayor (and Bertie Ahern protg) Royston Brady; Fine
e
Gael Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Gay Mitchell; and
current Labour MEP Proinsias De Rossa. De Rossa is a
staunch critic of U.S. foreign policy, as would be
the other strong Labour candidate Peter Cassells (a
trade union leader). Mitchell is an Atlanticist who
has long argued for Ireland to rethink its position
on military neutrality, and the other Fine Gael MEP
contenders fall in behind this line. Brady is
inexperienced in foreign policy, but may be receptive
to Ahern's counsel. Sinn Fein announced a strong
anti-war and pro-neutrality platform in launching its
campaign. The other MEP candidates are largely
focused on domestic issues, particularly the impact
of the Common Agricultural Policy reforms on Irish
farmers. Iraq and U.S.-EU ties do not feature
prominently on the door steps, though this has not
stopped the Labour Party, Sinn Fein, and, to a lesser
extent, the Greens, from attempting to make it an
election issue.




KENNY