IRISH REMAIN CONFIDENT ON EU CONSTITUTION, DESPITE

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000760

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN
SUBJECT: IRISH REMAIN CONFIDENT ON EU CONSTITUTION, DESPITE
MEDIA PESSIMISM

REF: DUBLIN 737


1. SUMMARY. DURING A MAY 19 DEBRIEF OF THE MAY 17-18 GAERC,
IRISH EUROPEAN CORRESPONDENT KEVIN CONMY AND IGC NEGOTIATOR
BOB PATTERSON STRESSED THAT IRELAND REMAINS CONFIDENT OF
SUCCESSFULLY NEGOTIATING THE NEW EU CONSTITUTION BY THE JUNE
17-18 EUROPEAN COUNCIL. THEY DISMISSED RECENT PESSIMISTIC
MEDIA REPORTING AS NOT REFLECTIVE OF THE BIGGER PICTURE OR
THE CONTINUING POLITICAL WILL TO CLOSE THE DEAL. CONMY ALSO
BRIEFLY REVIEWED GAERC CONCLUSIONS ON ESDP, WESTERN BALKANS,
SUMMIT PREPARATIONS, MEPP AND IRAQ. END SUMMARY.

IGC DISCUSSIONS ON TRACK, ACCORDING TO THE IRISH
-------------- ---


2. ON MAY 19 IRISH EUROPEAN CORRESPONDENT KEVIN CONMY AND
IGC NEGOTIATOR BOB PATTERSON BRIEFED NON-EU AMBASSADORS ON
THE RESULTS OF THE MAY 17-18 BRUSSELS GAERC/IGC,
CONCENTRATING ON THE IGC NEGOTIATIONS. IGC NEGOTIATOR BOB
PATTERSON DESCRIBED THE TWO PAPERS PREPARED FOR THE
GAERC/IGC, NOTING THAT ONE REPORT CONTAINED THOSE ITEMS ON
WHICH THE IRISH FELT CONSENSUS HAD BEEN ACHIEVED, WHILE THE
OTHER LAID OUT REMAINING INSTITUTIONAL AND NON-INSTITUTIONAL
ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED. ON THESE LATTER ISSUES, HE NOTED
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A THREE-COUNTRY 18 MONTH PRESIDENCY
ROTATION WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MODEL, BUT WOULD
PROVIDE GREATER EFFICIENCY AND COORDINATION AND DESCRIBED THE
DISCUSSION OF REMAINING ISSUES AS "CONSTRUCTIVE",
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE COMPOSITION OF THE FUTURE
COMMISSION. PATTERSON NOTED THAT THE IRISH HAD PUT FORWARD A
COMPROMISE PROPOSAL WHEREBY EACH COUNTRY WOULD RETAIN A
REPRESENTATIVE ON THE COMMISSION UNTIL 2014, AT WHICH TIME
ITS SIZE WOULD BE REDUCED. MOST STATES ACCEPTED THE NEED TO
REDUCE THE SIZE OF THE COMMISSION IN ORDER TO GAIN
OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY AND, ACCORDING TO PATTERSON, THE
DISCUSSION CENTERED ON HOW MUCH OF A REDUCTION WAS NECESSARY
WITH SOME SUPPORTING 15 MEMBERS, BENELUX PROPOSING 18, AND
OTHERS SUGGESTING A FIXED RATIO OF TWO-THIRDS, WHATEVER THE
FUTURE SIZE OF THE COMMISSION.


3. PATTERSON ANNOUNCED THAT A FURTHER MINISTERIAL IGC
MEETING WILL TAKE PLACE MAY 24 WHERE THE FOCUS OF DISCUSSION
WILL BE PRIMARILY ON THE SCOPE AND DEFINITION OF QUALIFIED
MAJORITY VOTING (QMV). REACTING TO AMBASSADORS' QUESTIONS
ABOUT PESSIMISTIC MEDIA REPORTS OF THE IGC MEETING, BOTH
PATTERSON AND CONMY SUGGESTED THAT THE MEDIA WAS FOCUSING ON
(AND EXAGGERATING) INDIVIDUAL CONCERNS OF MEMBER STATES AND
DID NOT REFLECT THE CONTINUING POLITICAL WILL TO GET THE DEAL
DONE WHICH THE IRISH STILL SEE REFLECTED IN THE IGC MEETINGS
AND WHICH PRIME MINISTER AHERN WAS FINDING IN HIS TOUR OF
CAPITALS. BOTH EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE ABOUT SUCCESS IN JUNE.

COUNTER-TERRORISM FOLLOW-UP CONTINUING
--------------


4. COMNY THEN REVIEWED THE GAERC CONCLUSIONS ON ESDP,
WESTERN BALKANS, EU-RUSSIA AND EU-LATIN AMERICA SUMMIT
PREPARATIONS, MEPP AND IRAQ. HE NOTED THAT NATO SECRETARY
GENERAL DE HOOP SCHEFFER ATTENDED THE MONDAY LUNCHEON WITH
DEFENSE MINISTERS, EXPRESSED SATISFACTION WITH THE RESULTS OF
THE MAY 4 QUARTET MEETING, AND PRAISED THE FACT THAT
FOLLOW-UP ON THE EU'S COUNTER-TERRORISM DECLARATION HAS BEGUN
WITH EU MEMBERS REVIEWING THEIR CAPABILITIES TO PROVIDE
ASSISTANCE TO ANY VICTIM OF A TERRORIST ATTACK UNDER THE
SOLIDARITY CLAUSE.

BURMA - HARD ROAD AHEAD
--------------


5. UNDER ANY OTHER BUSINESS, COMNY EXPRESSED DEEP
DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THE FAILURE OF BURMA TO RELEASE AUNG SAN
SUU KYI OR MAKE ANY OTHER EXPECTED POSITIVE GESTURES AND SAID
THAT A SPECIAL PRESIDENCY ENVOY (JOHN CAMPBELL) WOULD SOON
BEGIN A TOUR OF ASEM COUNTRIES TO DISCUSS THE ISSUE OF BURMA
AND ASEM ENLARGEMENT IN A MORE DIFFICULT ATMOSPHERE THAN HAD
BEEN ANTICIPATED.


6. COMNY ALSO NOTED THAT DENMARK AND SWEDEN HAD PROPOSED AN
ITEM ON INTERNATIONAL RULE OF LAW AND THAT THE COMMISSION HAS
BEEN ASKED TO CONSULT EU MEMBERS ON HOW BEST TO "PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RULES BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER."

COMMENT
--------------

DESPITE SOME QUITE OBVIOUS BUMPS IN THE ROAD, AS REFLECTED IN
THE MEDIA REPORTING OF THE GAERC/IGC MEETING, THE IRISH HERE
CONTINUE TO EXPRESS CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEAL WILL GET DONE,
ECHOING IRISH FOREIGN MINISTER COWEN'S PUBLIC COMMENTS
FOLLOWING THE MEETING. THE ODDS ON SUCCESS MAY BE
LENGTHENING, HOWEVER.
KENNY