CONVERSATION WITH OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 001277

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV DJ
SUBJECT: CONVERSATION WITH OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

REF: DJIBOUTI 1250

Classified By: Ambassador Marguerita D. Ragsdale.
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: In a statement to the press 30 August 2004,
Mohamed Daoud Chehem, president of opposition Djiboutian
Party for Development (PDD),declared his candidacy for the
presidential race to take place in April/May 2005. Chehem
visited Ambassador Ragsdale 29 September as a courtesy call
to explain his position. Chehem's party is aligned with
three other opposition parties in the Union for Democratic
Alternance coalition. Chehem explained that his candidacy
was for his party alone and there are likely to be candidates
from the other parties. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Mohamed Daoud Chehem, President of opposition
political party PDD, paid a call September 28 on Ambassador
Ragsdale to clarify the intent behind his 30 August
announcement of his candidacy for president of Djibouti.
Pol/Econ (notetaker) and Pol Assistant sat in on the meeting.
Chehem stated at the outset that he would like to clarify
what his announcement means for the opposition coalition. He
continued that the opposition has the intent of presenting
more than one candidate for next year's presidential race in
order to reduce the chance of Ismail Omar Guelleh being
re-elected. Chehem explained that in Djibouti, people follow
their tribe in voting. If only one candidate is presented by
the opposition there is no chance to use tribal alignments to
the opposition's advantage. Chehem explained that his
announcement only concerned his own party and the other
parties in the coalition would likely present their own
candidates. He assured Ambassador that he would defer to the
opposition candidate with the most votes for the second round
of voting.


3. (C) In Djibouti's election procedures, if no candidate
receives more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off election
must take place. Chehem stated that by splitting the
opposition in the first round, the possibility existed of
pulling more Somali votes from Guelleh. After the first
round, the opposition would unite again against Guelleh.


4. (C) Chehem then turned the topic of conversation to his
thoughts on the state of governance in Djibouti. In plain
words, Chehem said, there is no state in Djibouti. Rather,
the state consists of one man. He continued that the
disparity between rich and poor in Djibouti grows. Chehem
said that Guelleh and he "do not have the same concept of
serving the state." On Guelleh's rule, he offered the view
that there is too much corruption and total impunity. There
are laws on the books, but no one enforces them. "When
Hassan Gouled was in power, Chehem added, there was at least
a pretense of governance."


5. (C) In Chehem's opinion, lack of money is not a problem in
Djibouti. He repeatedly said: "we have the money, we have
the resources, they are mismanaged, they go into the pockets
of different people." For Chehem, it is the government that
has created poverty in Djibouti. Resources have been
increased, but services decreased. Chehem was adamant that
many problems could be improved by better managing the
state's income. He continued that there needs to be more
motivation for people to do better and severity and sanctions
when people do wrong. Chehem commented that there formerly
existed a service to maintain and clean the city, in the
capital and in the districts. He continued that the
resources to employ people for that service are still there
but are not being used or funds for the service are being
diverted. Chehem stated that official fiscal assets for the
state in the first six months of this year was 13.5 billion
DF (approx. 76 million USD),and double that for the full
year's budget. This figure does not include aid funding from
the French or the U.S., which adds another 40 billion DF
(approx. 226 million USD),according to Chehem. (Note: Chehem
did not detail what the annual output for payment of state
obligations was for FY 2004. Without that balance post cannot
comment on Chehem's claim of money mismanagement. End Note.)


6. (C) When asked about economic projects that Guelleh has
introduced, Chehem was extremely negative. He stated that
the project at Port of Doraleh is a private project that does
not benefit the people. Rather, its profits go to three
people: businessman Abdourahman Boreh, President Guelleh and
the state of Dubai. He continued that 70 percent of the
workers are foreigners and that Djiboutians are not happy
with that. Chehem did say that it is necessary to expand the
port, but that this particular venture was a monopoly.


7. (C) In response to Ambassador's question regarding whether
Chehem perceived a desire by Djibouti to look northwards
toward the Arab world or southwards toward Africa, Chehem
stated "We are an African country and we consider ourselves
African." He explained that Djibouti has stronger ties with
Ethiopia and Somalia. Somalia joined the Arab League to put
more pressure on France to give Djibouti independence, and
that once gained, Djibouti felt compelled to also join. He
commented that there formerly was business with Rwanda,
Uganda and Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo) at the port.
Djibouti is ready to do resume such business, but there is no
justice. Chehem agreed that there was not a high volume of
business from Africa at present, but in order to promote it,
greater protections for the investors in the judicial system
would be needed.


8. (C) BIO: Chehem is an Afar from the northern region of
Djibouti. He was Director of the Cabinet for the Prime
Minister in 1978 and served three years as Finance Minister.
Chehem was a member of the armed faction of FRUD, the
opposition party that rebelled in the early 1990's resulting
in ten years of civil war. Chehem was jailed in 1990 for his
involvement in FRUD. After his release he went to Ethiopia,
but was extradited back to Djibouti in 1998.


9. (C) COMMENT: Common opinion of Chehem in Djibouti is that
he is fairly even minded and not predisposed to favor his
clan over any other. Reportedly, during his time as Finance
minister, he tried to govern by the book and to accomplish
change. This is also the reported reason as to why he was
removed from that position. Chehem's demeanor is very
congenial but he lacks the charisma of a leader. His ideas
seem honestly conveyed and he appears genuinely to desire
change, but he lacks an explanation on how he would
accomplish any of his goals. Post cannot yet comment on the
extent of support for Chehem in the Djiboutian community.
END COMMENT.
RAGSDALE