Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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04DJIBOUTI1250 | 2004-09-27 12:07:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Djibouti |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 001250 |
1. (U) Summary: The death of Ahmed Dini Ahmed on September 12, figurehead of the political opposition coalition Union for Democratic Alternance (UAD) and president of the Republican Alliance for Democracy (ARD) opposition party, will have significant impact on Djibouti's upcoming regional and presidential elections, as well as on the future of the opposition movement. The question of who will succeed Dini as head of UAD is certain to create contention among the opposition, however the official decision will not be made until at least after the ARD congress in October. The results of this congress will impact opposition approaches to upcoming elections. End Summary. IMPACT ON THE OPPOSITION -------------------------- 2. (U) In the January 2003 legislative elections, the UAD won 36.9 percent of the vote. This was the most significant gain for the opposition since the beginning of Djibouti's democratization in 1992. The main factor behind this percentage was the union of the opposition behind the charismatic leader, Dini, who was effectively the glue between the opposition parties. The looming question is whether the next leader of UAD chosen will be Afar or Somali. 3. (C) A secondary question that must be asked is: Will the opposition coalition hold together or splinter? In theory, whoever heads the UAD will be the opposition candidate for the presidential elections next spring. In reality, there are several paths for the opposition to take. Rumors about town suggest that opposition parties MRD (Movement for Democratic Renewal) and UDJ (Union for Democracy and Justice) might want to break the Afar hold on the lead of the opposition coalition. If an opposition member of Somali ethnic origin were to be placed as the presidential candidate opposite Guelleh, there is a potential for more Somali votes to go to the opposition. In this case, the Afar vote will only go to a Somali opposition candidate if he has a truly national vision and stays far from partisan politics. On the other hand, if the Afars maintain their hold on the opposition leadership, the ruling parties will depend on the Somali vote to tip the scales. In a third scenario, where the opposition presents two candidates - one Afar and one Somali, the opposition will most likely garner the majority of the Afar votes. The Somali voters in this instance be split along tribal or clan lines, which could result in a decrease in the ruling party's margin. 4. (C) Dini was the last big name in terms of opposition leaders for the Afars. The Afar community will feel a void where Dini once sat as there is not yet a credible personality that can argue the Afar interests as convincingly as did Dini with the ruling Issa majority. There are other candidates but all lack the ease and eloquence of Dini. WHO'S WHO OF DINI'S HOPEFUL SUCCESSORS -------------------------- 5. (C) At the moment, there are two camps vying for succession to Dini: those that claimed they fought political battles with him during his exile, and Dini's family and party cohorts. The most active are Kassim Ahmed Dini, Ahmed Dini's son, and Ahmed Youssouf, vice-president of ARD. In addition, Mohamed Daoud Chehem, president of PDD (Djiboutian Party for Democracy), Kassim Ali Dini, nephew of Ahmed Dini and member of ARD, Daher Ahmed Farah, president of MRD, and Ismael Guedi Hared, president of UDJ (Democratic Union for Justice) are vying for succession. 6. (C) Kassim Ahmed Dini is known to possess great determination, however, he is not a likely candidate because of his youth and extreme tendencies in arguing for Afar interests. Some feel that Kassim Ahmed is too focused on the Afar plight and ignores the other communities. Kassim Ahmed is also the editor-in-chief of La Realite, ARD's opposition journal. 7. (C) Ahmed Youssouf, former Minister of Port in the late 80's, is viewed as hot tempered and quick to react. He is the more likely candidate than Kassim Ahmed, but projections on how well he will do outside the ARD party cannot be made at this time. 8. (C) Mohamed Daoud Chehem, is fairly balanced in terms of integrity and background. He has not displayed any tribal or clan favoritism, nor views that might qualify as extremist. Chehem served as Finance Minister from 1987 to 1991 before becoming an active leader in the armed rebellion by the FRUD party during the civil war in 1991-1993. Chehem announced last Monday his candidacy for President of Djibouti in the coming elections. He said that his candidacy only speaks for his party and not the entire opposition coalition. Chehem stated the priorities of PDD's candidacy in a press release to Agence France Press as being "the re-establishment of the authority of the State and the introduction of the rule of right, the democratization of the public life, the installation of an independent justice, the fight against corruption and nepotism and the restoration of public finances." 9. (C) Daher Ahmed Farah is well-known in the Djiboutian political scene. Farah was arrested several times in 2003 for comments made against government officials in his party's journal (MRD), La Liberte. Former military turned journalist, Farah has no experience in public affairs. MRD is comprised mainly of Issa sub-clan Fourlaba ethnic Djiboutians. The Fourlaba do not have a wide spread base throughout Djibouti, so a Fourlaba candidate may not garner many votes outside the sub-clan. 10. (C) Ismael Guedi Hared, Issa sub-clan Saad Moussa, was known to be very generous towards his sub-clan, but very partisan against the other communities during his tenure in public office. If chosen as opposition candidate, only his sub-clan will be 100 percent supportive. 11. (C) Comment: The key point in a discussion of the impact of Dini's death on Djiboutian politics is whether the opposition coalition will remain intact or the four parties go their own direction. The motivation behind PDD President Chehem's declaration of candidacy is a linchpin to deciphering this particular mystery. If Chehem's declaration was done in collaboration with and the consent of the other three opposition parties, we might safely project that the opposition will present an Afar candidate and a Somali candidate. Chehem's press release to AFP indicated that, in the event of a second round tie-breaking vote he would defer to the opposition candidate who gained the most votes. This could indicate that the other parties were well aware of this action. If the opposite holds, this could indicate that PDD is breaking from the coalition but leaving a loophole in case of success. RAGSDALE |