Recent meetings show the way forward for Sri

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000953

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06-09-14
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: Recent meetings show the way forward for Sri
Lanka peace process is troubled

Refs: (A) Colombo 915, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition Leader Wickremesinghe
thought the Co-Chairs statement was good, but that the
President and her government do not understand the
psychology of the LTTE, and are determined to begin
talks on the final ("hard") issues. He also thinks the
military is using LTTE rebel Karuna to attack the LTTE.
When pressed to support the peace process, he said that
the Government needs to make a statement laying out its
policy.


2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED: Norwegian Ambassador
Brattskar says that the two sides are moving further
apart, rather than closer. The LTTE will meet with its
diaspora experts in Switzerland in mid-July. President
Kumaratunga called the Norwegian Foreign Minister to
complain that she had already made many concessions. No
one expects any movement until after the July 10
Provincial Council elections. END SUMMARY.

Ranil: She just does not understand.
--------------


3. (C) Ambassador met with Opposition Leader (and
former Prime Minister) Ranil Wickremesinghe the evening
of June 7 to discuss the recent Co-Chairs meeting in
Brussels. Ranil said that he had read the Co-chairs'
statement and thought it was "good." At the moment, he
did not plan any action on the peace process: "She has
the mandate, not me." President Kumaratunga and Foreign
Minister Kadirgamar, he said, did not understand the
psychology of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE). "They only want to discuss an interim
administration. They will never agree to discuss final
issues now." He had discussed this with Kadirgamar, but
Kadirgamar had insisted that he wanted to take up hard
issues now. Ranil said that he had ignored some
transgressions by the LTTE because it was the only way
to keep negotiations going. The President did not
understand this.


4. (C) Ranil said that the Government was playing a
dangerous game because the Sri Lanka Army (Department of
Military Intelligence, "DMI") was using the breakaway
LTTE rebel Karuna to get back at the LTTE. Ranil said
he "knew" this was the case -- he had sources in the
military who told him so. This was another example of
the Government's dangerous game.


5. (C) Ambassador said that the Co-Chairs statement was
directed at all parties in Sri Lanka. If the
international community were to keep its interest alive,
we expected everyone to support peace. Pressing the
point, Ambassador said that he thought comments such as
recent remarks by UNP spokesman G.L. Peiris that the
President's efforts were a "sham" peace process were not
helpful. One could criticize what the President wanted
to do, Ambassador said, but should not imply that she
was not interested in peace. Ranil said that the
President and her ruling coalition needed to make a
clear policy statement on the peace process. (Comment:
The President is avoiding this because she could never
get her JVP coalition partners to go along with anything
reasonable.)

Norwegians: Getting worse, not better
--------------


6. (C) Ambassador met with Indian High Commissioner Sen
and Norwegian Ambassador Brattskar mid-day on June 8,
along with EU and Canadian Chiefs of Mission.
(Brattskar had arrived back from Oslo, where he had
stopped after Brussels, only that same morning.)
Brattskar said that the Norwegians were trying to put
together a statement which would allow talks to resume.
The Norwegians were in constant touch with both sides,
receiving messages from both, but unfortunately the
sides were moving farther apart. Each side was sending
"unhelpful clarifications." The Government insistence
on holding "parallel" talks on final settlement issues
was, Brattskar said, just a non-starter.


7. (C) Each side was afraid that giving in would
prejudice the final outcome. The LTTE had rejected the
plan to resurrect a NERF-like mechanism to disburse aid
because they felt if they did so, the Government would
never seriously discuss the LTTE's Interim Self-
Governing Administration (ISGA). The Government did not
want to discuss the ISGA alone because it feared that if
an ISGA were set up, the LTTE would have no incentive to
discuss final issues. Brattskar said that President
Kumaratunga had called the Norwegian Foreign Minister
the day before to complain that she had made many
compromises, but the Tigers had not made any.

LTTE issues
--------------


8. (C) Sen said that he had heard that the GSL had been
using Karuna and his faction to get back at the LTTE,
but that the military had now been given orders to stop
providing assistance to Karuna. Brattskar said that the
LTTE was now preparing for a week-long meeting they
would hold in Switzerland beginning July 20. The
meeting would include the legal and constitutional
experts from the Tamil diaspora who had helped the LTTE
prepare their ISGA proposal.

Messy Political Situation
--------------


9. (C) All agreed that the current political situation
makes it particularly difficult to make progress:

-- The Government still does not have enough votes to
show a majority in Parliament. (See Septel for report
on June 8 altercation in parliament.)

-- The JVP faction within the government continues to
snipe at the peace process (see Reftels).

-- Pending Provincial Council elections on July 10, no
one wants to make a dramatic move.


10. (C) COMMENT: We believe that Ranil Wickremesinghe
heard the Ambassador's message about not trying to take
political advantage by attacking the peace process.
Wickremesinghe made it clear, however, that he is not
about to lend support to the President. Ranil's
analysis of the psychology of the Tigers, and the need
to induce them to participate in the talks may be
accurate. The President's problem is that she directed
the electoral campaign against Ranil on the basis that
he gave in too easily to the Tigers -- now she has to
show that she is harder to budge. Combined with
Kadirgamar's insistence on discussing final issues, the
result is a poisonous atmosphere.


11. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD