Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04COLOMBO669
2004-04-17 08:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

Sri Lanka update: Parliament set to reopen

Tags:  PGOV PTER PINS PHUM CE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000669 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04-20-14
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PHUM CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka update: Parliament set to reopen
amid continued tension in ruling coalition

Refs: (A) Colombo 662, and previous
- (B) FBIS Reston VA DTG 170842Z Apr 04

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000669

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04-20-14
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PHUM CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka update: Parliament set to reopen
amid continued tension in ruling coalition

Refs: (A) Colombo 662, and previous
- (B) FBIS Reston VA DTG 170842Z Apr 04

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) In this update message, Mission reviews the
following political developments in Sri Lanka:

-- Parliament is set to reopen on April 22, with the
selection of a Speaker one of the first tasks;

-- Tensions continue between the President's party and
its extremist coalition partner;

-- Former Foreign Minister out of parliament, lashes out
at party and ex-PM;

-- Provincial council elections set for April 24 in
northwestern Sri Lanka;

-- Reports continue that President Kumaratunga plans to
amend the constitution.


2. (C) PARLIAMENT SET TO REOPEN: Following the
parliamentary elections of April 2, Parliament is set to
convene on April 22 with its new political composition.
The first order of business of the new Parliament will
be to elect a Speaker and, at present, the sole
candidate for the post is United National Party (UNP) MP
W.J.M. Lokubandara (former minister of justice and
Buddhist affairs) -- see Reftel. Contacts have
indicated that, as President Kumaratunga's United
People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) is still lacking a
majority, it will not put forward a candidate, thereby
avoiding a possible loss in the voting. Although the
pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Tamil
National Alliance (TNA) has said it will not publicly
announce any support for a Speaker candidate until April
22, the group has already stated that it will sit in
opposition to the UPFA. The Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU)
party, with its nine monks-cum-MPs, has reportedly said
it will decide its support on an issue-by-issue basis
and will not align with either the UPFA -- and create a
majority -- or with the UNP -- and strengthen the
opposition.


3. (C) COMMENT: The opening of Parliament, with the
selection of the Speaker, promises to be interesting.
The Speaker position can be pivotal within the

government body, as the person presides over all votes,
including any impeachment motions. Although the post
holder is supposed to be neutral, Lokubandara would
almost certainly favor the UNP, a fact made more likely
by his reportedly poor relationship with the President.
This is the first test of the UPFA government and it is
not clear how the President will attain the seven seats
she needs for a majority so that further business in the
Parliament concludes in her favor. END COMMENT.


4. (C) CONTINUED TENSIONS WITHIN COALITION: Tensions
continue to resonate within President Kumaratunga's UPFA
political grouping. (Note: "UPFA" is the party name
for the political grouping of the Sri Lanka Freedom
Party "SLFP" and the extremist Marxist Janatha Vimukthi
Peramuna "JVP," among others.) The JVP remains angered
by the partial gutting (significant portions were
reassigned to ministries held by other parties in the
UPFA) of the four ministries promised to them by the
President before the election(see Reftels). An April 17
meeting between senior members of the JVP and President
Kumaratunga to address the dispute ended without
resolution. According to contacts, the key argument is
the Mahaveli (interior river system) Development sector
that was removed from the agriculture ministry promised
to the JVP and remains in an SLFP-held river basin
development ministry. As a result of the disagreement,
no JVP MPs have been sworn in as ministers yet and it
appears unlikely that they will do so before Parliament
opens on April 22.


5. (C) COMMENT: Tensions between the SLFP and JVP are
nothing new -- for example, the JVP boycotted the
Cabinet swearing-in ceremony on April 10 due to this
very disagreement. Some of the portfolio items that
were removed have been put back into the ministries set
aside for the JVP, such as the National Film
Corporation, which has been returned to the Culture
Ministry. What remains to be seen is how far the JVP is
willing to push the issue of portfolio allocations, and
the degree to which the President will push back. After
their electoral success, the JVP will certainly make
their displeasure felt if they get the feeling that the
SLFP is placing them on the back burner. These
continued tensions serve to illustrate the fragile
nature of the alliance. END COMMENT.


6. (C) FORMER FM LASHES OUT AT FORMER PM: Former
Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando has lashed out
publicly against the United National Party (UNP) and
former PM Ranil Wickremesinghe after he was left off of
the "national list" of MPs. In a media briefing held on
April 16, Fernando said that he was "in the process of
reassessing the party leadership, policies, and my
affiliation to the party," noting that he had received
an invitation from Minister of Tourism Anura
Bandaranaike to join the UPFA. Fernando also said he
had sent a letter to now-Opposition Leader
Wickremesinghe detailing his dissatisfaction at being
left off the national list. Press reports on April 20
stated that the UNP was considering possible
disciplinary action against Fernando for his comments.


7. (C) COMMENT: Fernando's umbrage is not without
justification, considering his previous high-level
position. Further, the decision to exclude him from the
national list means that Fernando will be out of
Parliament for the first time since the 1970s. There
has been speculation among contacts that the UNP axed
Fernando because it suspected him of currying favor with
President Kumaratunga in the runup to the elections.
Tracking with this, in his media briefing Fernando did
state that the President was a "moderate leader" and "we
have to accept the fact that she is the President." END
COMMENT.


8. (C) PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS SET FOR APRIL 24:
Provincial Council Elections for the "Wayamba" province,
located in the north-central area of Sri Lanka, will
take place on April 24. Numerous local election
monitors have reportedly been dispatched, and security
has been increased in the run-up to the election.
UNP and UPFA candidates have publicly expressed
confidence about their chances for success in this
election, which is the first election in Sri Lanka since
the Parliamentary elections earlier this month. In the
Wayamba election, there are 830 candidates vying for 50
council seats. The Wayamba provincial council was held
by the UNP from 1988 until 1998, when the SLFP managed
to gain control of the council. Contacts report that
they expect the UPFA grouping to win the April 24
election.


9. (C) COMMENT: As noted above, the Wayamba election
is the first election since the April 2 general
election. The outcome of the provincial council
election may indicate which way the political wind is
blowing -- if voters are still behind the UPFA, which
has weathered several crises in its first few weeks in
power. There are seven provincial councils in all, with
elections for the six others set to take place starting
in May, and the results of these elections will provide
insight as to how voters view Sri Lanka's changed
political landscape. END COMMENT.


10. (C) POSSIBLE PLANS TO AMEND CONSTITUTION: Reports
continue to circulate that President Kumaratunga plans
to develop a new constitution, transforming the
parliament into some type of constituent assembly to
achieve her goal. One of the aims of the new
constitution would be to abolish the executive
presidency and transfer the bulk of that office's power
to the post of prime minister; another is reportedly to
change the electoral process. (To facilitate her
efforts towards the proposed change, the President has
retained the constitutional affairs portfolio for
herself, instead of appointing a minister.) In her
first step, the President has established an advisory
committee -- including FM Kadirgamar and constitutional
lawyers -- to develop a draft constitution. The
committee has reportedly met at least once, but
presidential contacts have been quiet on any possible
developments.


11. (C) COMMENT: The idea of eliminating the executive
presidency for a more powerful prime ministership has
been advocated at different times over the years by both
the UNP and the President's own Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP). This time, however, many observers are not
supportive of the President's preference for a
constituent assembly for affecting such a change.
Contacts note that a constituent assembly requires only
a simple majority for passage of items, rather than the
two-thirds majority required by a Parliament. With her
alliance not even currently commanding a majority in
Parliament, if the President goes ahead with her
proposed constitutional changes, she will have a
tremendous challenge to enact them, no matter which
route she takes. END COMMENT.


12. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD