Sri Lanka goes to the polls: Situation is

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000579

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04-02-14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM ASEC PTER CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka goes to the polls: Situation is
calm nationwide with few reports of violence

Refs: (A) Colombo - Ops Center 04-02-04 telecon
- (B) FBIS Reston VA DTG 020124Z Apr 04
- (C) Colombo 572, and previous
- (D) Oslo 575

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Sri Lankans flocked to the polls
April 2 to elect a new Parliament. The situation
throughout the country -- including the often volatile
north and east -- is reportedly calm and there have been
few reports of violence. Turnout seems high. Polls
have now closed and results will begin to dribble in
late April 2. A clear picture of the winners and the
losers should emerge on April 3. Although it is too
early to assess with finality the freeness and fairness
of the election, indications appear mainly on the
positive side at this point. Late reports raise
questions about Tamil Tiger activities, including
possible fraud, however. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) SRI LANKA VOTES: Sri Lankans flocked to the
polls April 2 to elect a new Parliament. Polling
stations, which were open from 7:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.,
are now closed. Turnout appears to have been high.
(Turnout may match the 75 percent recorded in the last
parliamentary election in December 2001, but there are
no firm figures as of yet.) Based on what the ten
Mission teams scattered around the country reported,
crowds lining up at polling stations to vote seemed
enthusiastic. Monitors from the European Union and the
Commonwealth reported to us that they were also struck
by the apparent orderliness of the voting process.
Representatives of the National Democratic Institute
(NDI) have also been out and about and report that they
have seen no anomalies.


3. (SBU) SITUATION BASICALLY PEACEFUL: Overall,
election day appears to have been largely peaceful. (If
this assessment holds up, it is contrary to past
patterns in Sri Lanka: over 12 people were killed on
election day in December 2001, for example.) Some minor
acts of violence were reported, but nothing major has
been reported as of yet (reports from rural areas can be
slow to trickle in, however). There was a large
presence of security forces throughout the country,
especially in the always volatile north and east (see
paras 5-6). Kingsley Rodrigo, the head of the People's
Alliance for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL),a local
NGO with thousands of election monitors stationed
nationwide, told poloff that it had been "a remarkably
peaceful election," based on the reports he had heard
thus far. P. Saravanamuttu, the head of the Center for
Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV),another NGO, told
us that his organization had yet to pick up reports of
"serious violence." (The election-related activities of
PAFFREL and CMEV are partially funded by USAID.)


4. (SBU) It is uncertain whether or not the GSL plans
to impose a national curfew the night of April 2. The
imposition of a curfew has been a fixture after past
elections, as the GSL worked to prevent tensions from
getting out of hand during the sensitive counting of the
ballots stage of the electoral process. RSO understands
that the police -- taking into account the generally
peaceful nature of the voting -- are reviewing the
matter and the GSL will make a determination later in
the day.


5. (C) NORTH/EAST APPEARS MAINLY QUIET: Voting in Sri
Lanka's north and east also appears to have proceeded
peacefully. Father Harry Miller, an Amcit Catholic
priest (please protect),told poloff that Batticaloa
District was "quite peaceful with no problems reported."
(Amid reports of an imminent face-off between rival
northern and eastern elements of the Tamil Tigers, and
the March 30 assassination of a Tamil candidate,
Batticaloa has been the scene of significant tension in
recent days -- see Reftels.) Mission team in Jaffna
also reported that the situation was quiet. The
Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) told
poloff that its monitors had heard of no problems in the
north and east. (The SLMM has a staff of some 60
monitors from Nordic countries observing the ceasefire.)


6. (SBU) In the meantime, it appears that Tamils living
in areas controlled by the Tigers were allowed to vote
without too much hindrance at sites set up on the border
between Tiger- and GSL-controlled areas in the north and
east. A significant tie-up in traffic developed,
however, as these voters lined up at military
checkpoints before being allowed access to the polling
stations. Government security forces, however, were
apparently quite helpful in allowing voters through and
these were no reports of Tamils being harassed or
prevented from voting (see below re Tamil Tiger
activities, however). Mission team in Vavuniya, a
border town located just south of the Tiger-controlled
Vanni region, reported that voting appeared to be going
relatively smoothly in the area. (The apparent ease
with which Tamils from Tiger-controlled areas voted this
time around is a marked shift: the Sri Lankan military,
acting on orders from the President's office, prevented
tens of thousands of Tamils from voting in December
2001.)


7. (C) LATE REPORTS RE TIGERS: Late in the day, press
reports cited V. Anandasangaree, a candidate and
longtime MP, as accusing the Tigers of engaging in
"massive rigging" and "voter impersonation" in Jaffna.
(Anandasangaree, a close Mission contact, is a dedicated
opponent of the Tigers.) There were also unconfirmed
reports that Tiger personnel might be acting in a
coercive manner near polling stations located near the
Vanni/Vavuniya border and that these personnel might be
impersonating voters on the rolls. We will sort out
these reports in the days ahead.


8. (SBU) RESULTS TO DRIBBLE IN LATER: The next step in
the process is the counting of the ballots. The
tabulation of results is a very slow process in Sri
Lanka. The first results will begin to be announced
late April 2 -- postal ballots will be the first counted
and those results released at around 9:30 p.m. The
counting of votes will continue overnight, and a clear
picture of winners and losers should emerge by mid-day
April 3. If the election is particularly close,
however, it may take additional time to size up the
exact configuration of the next Parliament.


9. (C) COMMENT: The April 2 election was the first
held in Sri Lanka during peacetime conditions in over 20
years (the ongoing peace process began in December 2001
right after the last parliamentary election). Based on
what we are hearing so far, Sri Lankans can congratulate
themselves -- the electoral process seems to have gone
relatively smoothly and peacefully, thus far. That
said, it is too early to assess with finality the
freeness and fairness of the election. Counting the
votes has not even begun (this is an area where there
have been some fraud problems in the past). Moreover,
local and foreign monitors have expressed concern about
the degree of intimidation in the north and east meted
out by the Tigers during the campaign. (As flagged
above, there are also claims that the Tigers have been
active on election day in various fraudulent
activities.) The Election Commissioner is expected to
give his initial assessment as to the free and fair
nature of the election late April 2. Local and foreign
monitors are slated to do the same April 2-3. END
COMMENT.


10. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD