Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04COLOMBO572
2004-04-01 10:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

Sri Lanka braces for tight, tense election

Tags:  PGOV PINS PINR PHUM ASEC CE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000572 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLS ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PHUM ASEC CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka braces for tight, tense election

Refs: Colombo 567, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000572

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLS ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PHUM ASEC CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka braces for tight, tense election

Refs: Colombo 567, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Sri Lankans are getting ready to go to
the polls on April 2 to vote for a new Parliament. At
this point, it still seems to be anyone's race to win:
the Prime Minister's UNP appears to be making a late
charge against the President's UPFA, but it is not clear
which side has the overall edge heading into election
day. Smaller parties, such as the pro-LTTE TNA and the
JHU (which is fielding an all-monk candidate slate),are
also in the mix. Given all of the variables, including
the likelihood of election day and post-election
violence, Sri Lankans are braced for a potentially
turbulent period. END SUMMARY.

========================================
Sri Lanka on the eve of April 2 election
========================================


2. (U) Sri Lankans are getting ready to go to the polls
on Friday, April 2, to vote for a new Parliament. Over
5,600 candidates are contesting for the 225
parliamentary seats. (FYI. The parliamentary election
is being held on its own. Presidential and local
elections are held on a different schedule: the next
presidential election is due to be held in late 2005 or
2006, for example.) Turnout is expected to be average
for Sri Lanka, with around 75 percent of the roughly
12.9 million eligible voters going to the polls. Over
10,000 polling stations are being set up across the
country, including some at sites set up in zones on the
periphery of areas controlled by the Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). (Thousands of Tamils living in
LTTE-controlled areas are expected to vote at these
sites). Polls country-wide are open from 7:00 a.m.
until 4:00 p.m.


3. (SBU) U.S. Mission teams informally observing the
election are already fanning out to sites around the
country in order to be in place by April 2. The teams,
which are made up of FSOs and FSNs, will be present in
the following districts: Anuradhapura, Colombo/Gampaha,

Galle, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kandy, Matara, Nuwara Eliya,
Ratnapura and Vavuniya. USAID Office of Transition
Initiatives (OTI) employees based in Trincomalee and
Ampara will also be providing reports about the
situation in the always volatile eastern region of the
country. In the meantime, large teams of observers from
the European Union, the Commonwealth, and Japan will
also be monitoring the election, along with monitors
affiliated with the People's Alliance for Free and Fair
Elections (PAFFREL) and the Center for Monitoring
Election Violence (CMEV). (The electoral activities of
PAFFREL and CMEV, two local NGOs, are partially funded
by USAID.)


4. (C) With respect to atmospherics, people are going
about their business pretty much as usual throughout the
country on April 1 (due to election regulations, all
campaigning ceased on March 30). There is little sense
of excitement. In general, Sri Lankans have never
appeared to warm to this campaign, perhaps because they
are on election overload (this is the country's fourth
national election, parliamentary and presidential, in
under five years). That is not to say they are
apathetic: turnout, as mentioned above, is expected to
roughly match that achieved during previous elections,
and there is a fair degree of interest and concern about
the election and its possibly divisive aftermath.


5. (SBU) In the meantime, while the overall amount of
violence has been low this campaign compared to those in
the immediate past (see Reftels),local monitors report
that complaints have surged in the past week. CMEV, for
example, says that it has received over 1,500 reports of
violence this campaign and that over 400 of those
reports came in the last week alone. (The total number
of campaign-related killings stands at five. All of
them have been in the east, and four apparently involved
the LTTE.) As has been the case during past elections,
a national curfew is expected to be put in place several
hours after the conclusion of voting on April 2. The
curfew may be extended further into the weekend
depending on the situation.

========================
A Close Race is Forecast
========================


6. (C) At this point, it seems to be anyone's race to
win. Most observers agree that President Kumaratunga's
United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) had a fast
start, but may have faded a bit in the home stretch.
(The UPFA consists of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party,
"SLFP," the radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, "JVP,"
and some smaller parties.) Juxtaposed against this is
the view (based on polling and anecdotal information)
that Prime Minister Wickremesinghe's United National
Party (UNP) may have begun to pick up some traction late
in the race after a very slow start to its campaign.


7. (C) Smaller parties are also in the mix. The pro-
LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) had been expected to
do well in the election, perhaps by winning over 20
seats (up from 15 now). The TNA's momentum may have
been hurt somewhat by the recent split in the LTTE
between northern and eastern elements. (Note: Indeed,
there are reports that most of the TNA's candidates in
the east are now supporting rebel commander Karuna,
while those in the north remain loyal to the main LTTE
organization. The situation is quite tense: on
March 30, one of the TNA candidates in the east was shot
and killed, probably by the LTTE. In response, GSL
security forces have reportedly stepped up their patrols
in the east. End Note.) Another party that could play
an important role in the post-election period is the
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU),which is running an all-
Buddhist monk candidate slate (see Reftels). This
party, which is new, appears set to pick up several
seats in Parliament, with some observers estimating that
it may take nine seats or more. Two other important
parties are the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the
tea estate Tamil Ceylon Worker's Congress (CWC). Both
of these parties are backing the UNP. The SLMC has been
engaged in a serious fight with Muslim parties that are
backing the UPFA and it is uncertain how strong a
showing it will make. The CWC appears set to do well.


8. (C) Overall, as previewed in Reftels, it would
appear quite difficult for either the UPFA or the UNP to
win a majority of seats in Parliament (i.e., 113 seats
or more in the 225-seat body); Sri Lanka's complex
proportional representation system makes a landslide
victory very difficult. At this point, the two
alternatives appear to be: the UPFA wins the most seats
and, by picking up support from other parties or cross-
overs, is able to form the next government; or, the UNP,
joining with the TNA, is able to form the next
government.


9. (SBU) One factor that makes this election very
difficult to predict is the high number of voters who
remain undecided, according to various polls that have
been done in the pre-election period. (In some polls,
about a quarter of the electorate is essentially
undecided between the two parties -- see Reftels.) It
is not clear where these voters will end up (or if they
will vote at all),but the cumulative impact of their
votes will almost certainly prove decisive as to which
parties are the players in the post-election timeframe.

=======
COMMENT
=======


10. (C) Election day does not usually go smoothly in
Sri Lanka. In 2001, for example, at the orders of the
President's office, the military effectively prevented
thousands of Tamils living in LTTE-controlled areas from
voting. That particular problem is not expected this
time around. Violence will probably pick up on election
day, however, and hiccups should be expected, including
various snafus -- some minor, some possibly more serious
-- at polling sites and counting centers. Widespread
fraud of the sort that could prove decisive in the
election, however, has not generally been a problem in
Sri Lanka in the past (though there are sure to be
plenty of allegations).


11. (C) The tabulation of votes takes considerable time
in Sri Lanka, but by mid-day April 3 there should be
some sense as to the general shape of the overall
result. If it is a particularly close race, a clear
picture could be delayed for some time. There is also a
tradition in Sri Lanka of voters defying expectations,
which leads at times to surprising results. Based on
past experience, post-election violence involving
winners attacking the losers could also be a problem.
All in all, in light of these and other variables, Sri
Lanka is getting ready for a bumpy ride in the next
several days and weeks. END COMMENT.


12. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD