Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04COLOMBO503
2004-03-22 11:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

Sri Lanka: Radical JVP party ramps up

Tags:  PGOV PINS PHUM PINR SOCI CE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000503 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03-22-14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM PINR SOCI CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Radical JVP party ramps up
campaign in south and seems to be gaining strength

Refs: Colombo 490, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000503

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03-22-14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM PINR SOCI CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Radical JVP party ramps up
campaign in south and seems to be gaining strength

Refs: Colombo 490, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ahead of Sri Lanka's April 2
parliamentary election, the radical JVP party is running
hard in Sri Lanka's south. The party appears to be
garnering strength, though some of its support may be
siphoned away by a small party running an all-Buddhist
monk slate of candidates. In a sign of their increasing
confidence, JVP leaders are reportedly discussing what
ministries they will take over if their alliance with
the President's party wins the election. While much
could still happen, it appears that the JVP will be able
to solidify further its position as one of Sri Lanka's
leading political parties on April 2. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) JVP RUNNING HARD: As Sri Lanka's April 2
parliamentary election draws nearer, the radical Janatha
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party is running a very active
campaign in the south of the country. Most of the JVP's
campaign rallies and related activities are being
conducted at the village-level in Sri Lanka's "Sinhalese
Buddhist belt" in the deep south, where the JVP has
traditionally garnered a high degree of support. From
anecdotal reports that Mission is picking up, the JVP's
rallies are well-attended and the party is gaining
volunteers for its campaign efforts. (As the JVP is
Marxist by philosophy, the rallies are noticeable for
their copious use of red flags and bunting.) Mission
has also heard that the JVP rallies are more lively and
often larger than those held by its political ally, the
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP),and by the United
National Party (UNP). (The SLFP and the JVP are the
core elements in an electoral alliance called the United
People's Freedom Alliance, "UPFA." Despite their
alliance, the two parties are essentially running
separate campaigns throughout the country. The two
parties have only participated in several large joint

rallies, for example.) According to contacts in the
party, the JVP plans to ramp up its rallies in the last
days of the campaign and to launch a large-scale "get
out the vote" effort on election day.


3. (C) PARTY SEEMS TO BE GAINING STRENGTH: An exact
barometric reading of how the JVP is faring is hard to
come by. The few polls about the parliamentary race
that have come out do not delineate in a clear "horse
race"-type style how the separate parties are doing
head-to-head (see Reftels). That said, the polls do
indicate that the UPFA alliance is doing very well among
members of the majority Sinhalese ethnic group. The
UPFA is probably doing so well among Sinhalese in large
part because of the JVP's strength with that community.
Taranjit Sandhu, the Indian High Commission polcouns,
for example, told polchief March 18 that he thought the
JVP was "holding up its side of the bargain for the UPFA
by gaining strong support from villagers in Sinhalese
Buddhist areas."


4. (C) With respect to predictions of how it will all
turn out on April 2, observers generally expect that the
JVP will substantially improve on its surprisingly
strong performance in the December 2001 parliamentary
election when it won over 9 percent of the vote and took
16 seats in Parliament. Various numbers have been
bandied about, but most observers believe that the party
will probably win over 20 seats in Parliament on
April 2. This would be quite an impressive performance
by a party that had only one seat in Parliament as
recently as 2000.


5. (C) A CHALLENGE FROM ALL-MONK SLATE: Despite the
predictions of possible gains by the JVP, contacts have
identified one potential fly in the ointment for the
party: the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) party. The JHU
is a small party that -- in an unprecedented move in Sri
Lankan politics -- is running an all-Buddhist monk slate
of candidates. Like the JVP, the JHU is harshly
skeptical of the peace process with the Tamil Tigers and
leans decidedly leftist on economic issues. In light of
these similarities, many observers believe that the JHU
may siphon away a chunk of those who would have voted
for the JVP.


6. (SBU) MINISTERIAL POSITIONS?: At this point, with
the JVP riding high, there is increasing discussion in
the press that the party will take over several
ministries if the UPFA wins the election. (It has never
been officially disclosed, but the SLFP and JVP are
believed to have worked out a deal that would allow the
JVP to assume several ministerial positions if the UPFA
wins.) One March 21 press report, for example, stated
that Wimal Weerawansa, a JVP MP and spokesman, has been
asserting at public rallies in the south that the JVP
will -- if the UPFA wins -- take over the ministries of:
(1) Agriculture, Lands, and Irrigation; (2) Fisheries
and Aquatic Resources; (3) Rural Development; and (4)
Culture and National Heritage. Weerawansa has also
announced he would become the Culture and National
Heritage Minister in a possible UPFA government. In a
further display of confidence by the JVP, Pemasiri
Manage, a JVP candidate from Matara District in the
south, has reportedly been claiming in stump speeches
that he will be the next deputy minister of fisheries.


7. (C) COMMENT: Come April 2, it appears that the JVP
will be able to solidify further its position as one of
Sri Lanka's leading political parties. This would be
quite an accomplishment for a party that is best known
for leading two failed insurgencies against the GSL, and
was given up for dead after the complete failure of the
last of these in 1989. Despite the currently positive
signs for the JVP, however, much could still happen in
the last days of the campaign. The UNP, for example, is
pouring a lot of money into the campaign and could make
gains. In addition, the JVP made some mistakes in the
days leading up to the last parliamentary election in
2001, which made the party seem very strident to the
public, and it lost support. If such mistakes are
replicated, the JVP's current momentum could quickly
vanish.


8. (C) The JVP effort stirs up unpleasant memories for
older Sri Lankans. Several newspapers have run
historical articles lately recapping the brutality of
the JVP before it turned to the political forum. One
article, for example, included a long list of school
principals murdered by the JVP in the late 1980s.
During a courtesy call by SA DAS Patterson March 22, a
senior Commerce Ministry official unexpectedly opened
the conversation with an agitated account of how he had
been on a JVP hit list many years ago and how he found
it unbelievable that President Kumaratunga could be so
callous as to ally herself with the movement that
probably murdered her husband. (Vijaya Kumaratunga was
assassinated in 1988. It is not clear who did it, but
there is much speculation that the JVP was involved.)
Feelings on the JVP clearly run deep. END COMMENT.


9. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD