Sri Lanka: Competing Muslim groups engage in

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000489

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PTER CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Competing Muslim groups engage in
fierce infighting ahead of April 2 election

Refs: Colombo 477, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Muslim parties are engaged in fierce
infighting ahead of the April 2 parliamentary election.
Tensions are particularly high in the east, where there
have been many incidents of violence between the pro-UNP
Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and Muslims who are
loyal to President Kumaratunga. At this point, it is
difficult to tell which party is ahead in the race, but
the SLMC's campaign appears to have had difficulty
picking up traction. In the meantime, Muslims in the
east remain worried about the potential ramifications of
the LTTE split. If the SLMC does not do well, the UNP's
chances of forming the next government would be
seriously impaired. END SUMMARY


2. (C) INFIGHTING AMONG MUSLIMS: Muslim parties are
engaged in fierce infighting ahead of the April 2
parliamentary election. Tensions are particularly high
in the east, where there have been many incidents of
violence between the pro-United National Party (UNP)
SLMC and Muslims who are loyal to President Kumaratunga.
(The pro-Kumaratunga elements are divided into two
camps: the National Unity Alliance, the "NUA," and a
faction led by A.L.M. Athaullah, a MP who recently
defected from the SLMC along with four other SLMC MPs.
The Athaullah faction is running for seats on the ticket
of the pro-Kumaratunga "United People's Freedom
Alliance," "UPFA.") There have been a particularly high
number of campaign-related incidents of violence in the
eastern Batticaloa and Ampara Districts. A SLMC
campaign worker was reportedly killed in one such
incident on March 16, for example. If confirmed, this
would be the first death related to the campaign among
Muslims (and the third overall in the campaign). In the
meantime, a local election monitoring group has tallied
almost 80 violent incidents in the east since the
campaign began, which represents a relatively high
proportion of the roughly 600 reported incidents in the
country as a whole.


3. (C) SLOW START FOR SLMC: At this point, it is
difficult to tell which party is ahead in the race, but
the SLMC's campaign appears to have had difficulty
picking up traction. The SLMC and its leader, Rauf
Hakeem, are running an active campaign in the east,
where a plurality of Muslims lives. Instead of running
for a seat in Kandy, where he is from, Hakeem has even
decided to run from Ampara District, for example.
Despite all of this, the SLMC campaign appears to have
been rattled to some extent by accusations that Hakeem
supports the UNP's peace process initiative too much.
The NUA and the Athaullah faction have worked hard to
press this point home in the east, where many Muslims
are worried about the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) organization (see below). It is also the case
that the campaigns of the NUA and the Athaullah faction
have been hobbled to some degree by infighting between
each other. At this point, there are few hard
statistics to show how the parties are faring.


4. (C) WORRIES ABOUT LTTE SPLIT: In the meantime,
Muslims in the east are very worried about the potential
ramifications of the recent split in the LTTE between
northern and eastern elements. Muslims have not
expressed public support for either LTTE leader V.
Prabhakaran or rebel eastern commander Karuna, the
antagonists in the LTTE dispute. The community has deep
concerns about both men, however. Karuna, for example,
has been implicated in the 1990 killings of over 700 Sri
Lankan policemen in the east, while Pottu Amman, the
LTTE intelligence chief and a close associate of
Prabhakaran's, has been linked with attacks on Muslims
in the east in the past. There are some reports that
some Muslims may tend to favor Karuna, believing that
the split he has caused in the LTTE only helps to weaken
the larger Tiger organization. Norwegian diplomatic
contacts, in their role as peace process facilitators,
have said that, since the split, Karuna has tried to
reach out to Muslims to ensure them that he is not a
threat. All that said, Muslims are worried that
possible violence between northern and eastern elements
could spill over into Muslim-dominated areas in the
east. (Most contacts believe that the main LTTE
organization plans to wait until after the April 2
election before trying to undermine Karuna by force or
otherwise. For its part, the LTTE has said it plans to
use peaceful means to dislodge Karuna.)


5. (C) COMMENT: If the SLMC does not do well in the
election, the UNP's chances of forming the next
government would be seriously impaired. While the
amount of seats held by Muslim parties in the Parliament
is relatively small (the SLMC won 12 and the NUA three
in the last election out of 225 seats total),Muslims
could play a big role in forming the next government.
If the April 2 election is close, for example, even a
shift of several seats to the NUA and to the Athaullah
faction could mean the difference between victory for
President Kumaratunga's UPFA grouping and defeat for the
UNP. END COMMENT.


6. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD