Sri Lanka: Latest poll results appear to

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000477

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA
DEPARTMENT PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/14
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Latest poll results appear to
spell trouble for PM's party in upcoming elections

Refs: Colombo 470, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Two recent polls on the attitudes of
Sri Lankans ahead of the April 2 parliamentary elections
seem to indicate that PM Wickremesinghe's UNP government
is in trouble. While the polls do not breakdown which
party Sri Lankans plan to vote for, per se, they do show
that the UNP government is earning extremely poor marks
with respect to its handling of the economy, the key
issue of concern to voters. It also fares badly on
corruption. The UNP's marks regarding the peace process
are positive, however. Although there are still two
weeks to go before the election, our interpretation of
these results is that the President's SLFP party and its
JVP allies are ahead in the race at this point. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) RECENT POLLS: Two recent polls on the
attitudes of Sri Lankans ahead of the April 2
parliamentary elections seem to indicate that PM
Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP) government
is in trouble. One of the polls was conducted by the
Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA),a local think-
tank, in early March. (USAID provided funding for this
poll. CPA will be publishing more polls ahead of
election day.) The other poll was conducted by Org-
Smart, a division of the AC Nielsen Company, in late
February. The methodology for the two polls was roughly
the same: each poll contains results from approximately
two thousand respondents and has roughly the same margin
of error (plus or minus five percent for the Org-Smart
poll and plus or minus three percent for the CPA poll).
The ethnic breakdown of those polled in the two studies
is also similar, with the majority Sinhalese community
being over-represented in the sampling. One difference
between the polls was that the Org-Smart poll took place
throughout the country, including in the north and east,
though its results are methodologically divided between
those living in the south and those in the north/east.
The CPA poll was not conducted in the north and east,
however, where large Tamil populations are present. The
polls also do not breakdown which party Sri Lankans plan
to vote for, per se.


3. (SBU) BAD NEWS FOR UNP ON ECONOMY: The most
striking aspect of the polls was how poorly the UNP
fared with respect to economic matters. The Org-Smart
poll, for example, indicated that 43 percent of people
in the south felt that the President's United People's
Freedom Alliance (UPFA) would be better at handling the
economy. The UNP was only mentioned as being a better
manager of the economy by 33 percent. In the meantime,
the CPA poll showed that 59 percent of those polled felt
that their personal economic situation as compared to a
year ago had deteriorated versus only 17 percent who
said it had improved. The CPA poll also showed that 72
percent of those polled were dissatisfied with the UNP's
performance in lowering the cost of living and 75
percent were dissatisfied with the UNP's performance in
reducing unemployment. By a factor of 2 to 1, the CPA
poll also showed that those polled believe that the UPFA
was better equipped to handle economic issues as
compared to the UNP.


4. (SBU) The numbers regarding the economy are
especially important because it is seen as the top issue
for the country. According to the Org-Smart survey, for
example, over 65 percent of those polled in the south
rated economic-related issues as being the most
important, as compared to only 26 percent who rated the
peace process as the top issue. In the CPA poll, 62
percent of those polled said the economy should be the
new government's top priority compared with 21 percent
that said the peace process should.


5. (SBU) Another key area in which the UNP fared very
poorly was in combating corruption, with the CPA poll
indicating that 60 percent of those sampled were
dissatisfied with the UNP's performance in this area
versus only 27 percent who were satisfied with the UNP's
performance. The Org-Smart poll also tended to show
that those polled in the south believed that the UPFA
was better at dealing with corruption than the UNP.


6. (SBU) UNP DOES WELL ON PEACE PROCESS: Despite its
poor marks on the handling of the economy and on
corruption, one area that the UNP scored high on was its
handling of the peace process. The CPA poll indicated
that 62 percent of those polled approved of how the PM's
party had handled the peace process. In addition, 51
percent said they were satisfied with the amount of
international support the UNP had attracted for its
peace process initiative. The Org-Smart data revealed
similar findings, with 63 percent of respondents from
the south rating the UNP's ongoing peace efforts with
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) a success.
The UNP also garnered a high degree of confidence
regarding possible future negotiations, with 59 percent
of those in the south feeling that the UNP would be
better at dealing with the LTTE as compared with only 22
percent who said the UPFA.


7. (C) COMMENT: Polling is a new and inexact science
in Sri Lanka and we are not certain about the results of
the two polls. That said, the polls -- coupled with
what we are hearing anecdotally -- do seem to indicate
that the President's SLFP party and its JVP allies are
ahead in this race. After being virtually somnolent,
the UNP's campaign has been slowly revving up, however,
and the party could stage a comeback as election day
draws nearer. Nonetheless, with opinion apparently
running strongly negative regarding its handling of the
economy and a campaign machine that runs in fits and
starts, the situation appears a tad on the gloomy side
for the UNP at this point. We will analyze early next
week what a potential SLFP/JVP victory would mean on big
issues for the U.S. END COMMENT.


8. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD