Campaign Snapshot: Major parties issue dueling

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000465

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL/CRA; NSC FOR E.
MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03-16-14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PTER PHUM CE KWMM
SUBJECT: Campaign Snapshot: Major parties issue dueling
manifestos; Tamil party tries to recover lost momentum

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston VA DTG 160300Z Mar 04

- (B) FBIS Reston VA DTG 150329Z Mar 04
- (C) Colombo 456, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) In this message, Mission reviews the following
items related to Sri Lanka's April 2 parliamentary
election campaign:

-- President Kumaratunga defends record in nationally
televised address;

-- United National Party (UNP) releases strongly pro-
peace process manifesto;

-- President Kumaratunga's possible picks for prime
minister slot (if her party wins election);

-- After split in LTTE, main Tamil party tries to
recover lost momentum;

-- The "Flavor of the Campaign": As election day looms,
race gradually picks up steam.

========================
President defends record
========================


2. (SBU) In a campaign speech televised nationwide on
the evening of March 14, President Chandrika Kumaratunga
strongly defended her record in office -- see Ref A.
(The 30-minute speech was taped in Sinhala and was also
broadcast in Tamil.) In the speech, she said that she
and the previous People's Alliance (PA) government had
had great success in moving the peace process forward
and in improving the state of the economy. The
President also reserved some criticism for Prime
Minister Wickremesinghe. She asserted that in his two
years as PM, he had undone much of the social and
economic progress made by her party during its time in
power (from 1994-2001). Re the PM and his party, she
stated that they have "delivered nothing but plunder of
national assets without any shame." She wrapped up by
urging voters to support her United People's Freedom
Alliance (UPFA) in the April 2 election. (Note: The
UPFA is the technical term for the alliance between the
President's Sri Lanka Freedom Party, "SLFP," and the
radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, "JVP.")


3. (SBU) Several days before Kumaratunga's speech, the
UPFA publicly launched its election manifesto. A key
aspect of the very long manifesto document was its
proposal to convert the new Parliament into a
constituent assembly to develop a new constitution that
would replace Sri Lanka's executive presidency with a
strong parliamentary system. The manifesto also
supported the peace process and called for a resumption
of talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE). (Septel reviews manifesto's comments on
economic-related issues.)


4. (C) COMMENT: Compared to her often fiery rhetoric,
the President's speech was relatively tame. That said,
she did get her licks in against PM Wickremesinghe, her
cohabitation rival. The overall tenor of the speech and
the manifesto was a moderate, almost centrist one. At
this point -- and this could fade as the election draws
nearer, the UPFA appears to be trying to appeal to Sri
Lanka's "swing" voters, as opposed to trying to rouse
the party faithful. Regarding the UPFA manifesto, its
comments on the executive presidency were not new.
Kumaratunga has long supported getting rid of the
executive presidential system in favor of a powerful PM
slot. Many observers believe she would like to become
the PM under such a system, as opposed to being forced
to retire from politics after her two terms as president
(the mandatory limit) are complete. The proposal to
convert the new Parliament into a constituent assembly
has already generated fierce rhetoric, however. This
would allow the President to bypass the constitutional
provisions which require a two-thirds majority for
amendment. END COMMENT.

======================================
UNP issues pro-peace process manifesto
======================================


5. (SBU) The UNP has also launched its manifesto.
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and other leaders of the
UNP introduced the manifesto, entitled "Completing the
People's Unfinished Business," at a press conference
held in Colombo on March 15 (see Ref B). The manifesto
advocates the resumption of peace talks "as soon as
possible after the election" and supports the inclusion
of a separate Muslim delegation. The document also
calls for measures to combat government corruption and
defends the economic track record of the UNP government.
In an appearance at a March 12 rally, the PM also took a
shot at the UPFA manifesto, claiming that the UPFA had
"failed to give a definite solution to the country's
prolonged crisis, or how to end the war and bring
peace."


6. (C) COMMENT: The UNP manifesto did not contain any
surprises. Since coming to power in December 2001, the
UNP has pushed forward on the peace process and on
economic reforms, and the manifesto endorsed those
moves. In the battle of the dueling manifestos, it is
not clear how important the issuing of these documents
will be to either the UPFA or UNP campaign. The
parties, however, distribute the texts of the manifestos
far and wide in a bid to gain maximum support. Thus, a
manifesto that is considered well-crafted could be a
vote-winner. END COMMENT.

============================================= ==
President's possible picks for PM (if she wins)
============================================= ==


7. (C) As the campaign hurtles forward, President
Kumaratunga has not yet formally declared who would be
named as prime minister for the UPFA in the event that
her party was in position to form the next government.
According to press reports, the President recently told
a delegation of business leaders that she would be
favorable to naming a member of "a minority community"
as prime minister in a possible UPFA government.
Following this statement, speculation surged that
Kumaratunga was referring to Lakshman Kadirgamar, a
close adviser to the President and a Tamil. In the
meantime, other candidates for the slot are said to
include: former Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse;
Anura Bandaranaike, the President's brother and a senior
SLFP MP; and D.M. Jayaratne, a senior MP and leading
official in the SLFP. (Every indication is that the
President will pick a prime minister from her own SLFP
party and not from any other party such as the JVP, for
example.)


8. (C) COMMENT: Kumaratunga has been careful not to
tip her hand regarding the PM slot, but -- per her
veiled remark -- Kadirgamar seems to be a real
possibility. A former foreign minister (1994-2001),
Kadirgamar, who is a longtime Mission contact, is
respected by many Sri Lankans for being a Tamil who has
stood up to the LTTE. The flip side of this, however,
is that the LTTE is known to detest him, which could
complicate the peace process if the UPFA won and he
(Kadirgamar) was named PM. END COMMENT.

========================================
Tamil party tries to recover lost ground
========================================


9. (SBU) Many observers had commented earlier in the
campaign cycle that the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance
(TNA) had gotten off to a fast start. Since the split
in the LTTE between northern and eastern elements
emerged in early March (see Ref C),however, the party
seems to have lost some of its earlier momentum. TNA
candidates continue to campaign actively in Jaffna in
the north and Trincomalee in the east. (See Ref C for
report about the state of the campaign in Jaffna, for
example.) Candidates have significantly slowed down
their campaign activities in Batticaloa and Ampara
Districts in the east, however, due to tensions in that
region caused by the LTTE split. There are also
concerns in the TNA that voter turnout in the Tamil
community might be negatively affected by the split.


10. (C) COMMENT: When the campaign began, there were
many predictions that the TNA would win over 20 seats in
Parliament, up from its current 15-16. That still might
happen. That said, the TNA is clearly going through a
very difficult period and it will have to move quickly
to re-establish its former momentum. Most observers
still believe that the TNA will probably play a key role
in forming the next government if the UPFA and UNP do
not gain majority support in Parliament on their own.
END COMMENT.

=========================
Campaign picking up steam
=========================


11. (U) In our "Flavor of the Campaign" section: As
election day nears, the campaign -- which up to this
point had been relatively quiet by Sri Lankan standards
-- is starting to heat up. Because of Elections
Commissioner Dananda Dissanayake's decision to have the
police strictly enforce the ban against campaign
posters, etc., there had been sparse visible evidence
that an election was nearing (see Ref C). With just
under three weeks to go until the election, however, the
pace has picked up, with a plethora of campaign ads now
appearing in the print media, and campaign commercials
coming fast and furious on radio and television
stations. There has also been a big increase in
campaign rallies and meetings. Prime Minister
Wickremesinghe has been flying around the country to
stump for the UNP, for example. President Kumaratunga
has also been doing some traveling, but to a lesser
extent than the PM. Reports also indicate an increase
in JVP meetings in villages in the south. Moreover,
despite the Elections Commissioner's wish, more posters
and electoral banners are also appearing in Colombo and
elsewhere.


12. (SBU) COMMENT: As described above, the intensity
of the campaign is steadily building up and the next
several weeks should be very hectic. The election was
not very popular when it was called and there seemed to
be some lethargy in the campaign when it first began --
but that is now gone. All of this newfound intensity
and energy, hopefully, will not translate into more
campaign-related violence. For a Sri Lankan campaign,
this race has been almost sedate, thus far, but there
are fears that killings and attacks could pick up in the
days leading up to April 2. END COMMENT.


13. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD