In meeting, senior MP from President's party

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000446

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/14
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER CE
SUBJECT: In meeting, senior MP from President's party
discusses campaign, expresses worries re LTTE situation

Refs: Colombo 440, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Polchief met March 10 with Dinesh
Gunawardena, a senior MP in President Kumaratunga's
People's Alliance (PA) party. Queried about the April 2
parliamentary election, he stated that he thought the
alliance between the SLFP and radical JVP was having "a
very good" campaign and would win a majority of seats.
He allowed that the UNP campaign machine was just
getting warmed up after a slow start, however. Re the
LTTE split, he worried that it might hurt the peace
process. Gunawardena's views tended to reflect the
widespread sense that the SLFP-JVP alliance started out
fast, but that the UNP may be set to stage a strong
comeback. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) MEETING WITH SENIOR MP: Polchief met March 10
with Dinesh Gunawardena, a longtime MP for President
Kumaratunga's PA political grouping. (Gunawardena, 55,
comes from a prominent political family that holds
diverse views. One of his brothers, Prasanna, is the
UNP mayor of Colombo and another brother, Indika, is a
leader of the Communist Party.) Asked about the April 2
parliamentary election campaign, Gunawardena responded
that the alliance between President Kumaratunga's Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the radical Janatha
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) was having "a very good"
campaign. (The SLFP is the main constituent element in
the PA. Most elements of the PA are supporting the
SLFP-JVP alliance, including Gunawardena's small
Mahajama Eksath Peramuna, "MEP," party. FYI: The MEP,
a Trotskyite party, was founded by Gunawardena's father,
Philip, and was very strong in the 1940s and 1950s.)
Rallies had gone well and party members seemed "highly
enthusiastic" about the campaign. The SLFP-JVP planned
to make a big push during the final three weeks of the
campaign. This would involve many large rallies in the
big cities and hundreds of smaller rallies at the
village level. He also noted that the election
manifesto of the United People's Freedom Alliance,
"UPFA," (the technical name of the SLFP-JVP alliance)
would be issued shortly. (FYI: The manifesto, covering
UPFA stands on the peace process and economic matters,
was issued on March 11.)


3. (C) UNP WILL TRY HARD: Gunawardena noted that the
campaign of the United National Party (UNP) led by Prime
Minister Wickremesinghe was just getting warmed up after
a slow start. The UNP appeared to have a lot of money
and was clearly preparing to launch a large-scale, all-
out campaign during the last two weeks or so of the
campaign. That said, the UNP campaign was starting up
late in the cycle and it would be difficult for it to
recover lost ground. Asked for his prediction for the
April 2 election, Gunawardena replied that much hinged
on the final weeks of the campaign as "many things could
happen." All things being equal, however, he thought
that the SLFP-JVP alliance would win an outright
majority in Parliament (113 seats or more). If it came
just below that target, he thought the alliance would
almost certainly be able to attract smaller parties, or
perhaps defectors from the UNP, that would allow it to
form the majority in Parliament.


4. (C) WORRIES ABOUT LTTE SPLIT: Asked about the
recent split in the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) organization between northern and eastern
elements (see Reftels),Gunawardena responded that he
worried that it might hurt the peace process. Fighting
between the LTTE factions seemed likely and it could
easily spill over in the Eastern Province. Non-
combatants could be caught in the crossfire, which in
turn might lead to Sri Lankan military intervention of
some sort. Gunawardena noted that some elements in the
SLFP-JVP alliance wanted the GSL to get involved on the
side of Karuna, so as to ensure that the split in the
LTTE was a permanent one. Gunawardena was of two minds
about this. On the one hand, it appeared a good idea
for the GSL to try to undermine "one of the world's most
dangerous terrorist groups." On the other hand, the
situation in the east seemed very fluid and it might be
best for the government to act with restraint. All in
all, he thought that President Kumaratunga's current
"hands-off" policy toward the LTTE split was the best
choice for the moment.


5. (C) COMMENT: Gunawardena's views on the campaign
tended to reflect the widespread sense that the SLFP-JVP
alliance started out fast, but that the UNP may be set
to stage a strong comeback. UNP officials we have
recently met with appear much more confident now than
they did when the election was called in early February.
It is not clear why the UNP campaign was originally so
moribund, but the party clearly did not want elections
and seemed a bit shell-shocked in the aftermath of
President Kumaratunga's November 2003 takeover of three
key ministries. All that said, the SLFP-JVP alliance
remains highly active and is also set to make a strong
push in the next several weeks. It is still too early
to really predict, but most observers continue to
believe -- contrary to Gunawardena's view that the SLFP-
JVP will win an outright majority -- that Sri Lanka is
headed toward a tight election and possibly a hung
Parliament. END COMMENT.


6. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD