Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04COLOMBO44
2004-01-09 06:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR DISCUSSED POLITICAL SITUATION WITH

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINS CE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000044 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/14
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS CE
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSED POLITICAL SITUATION WITH
MILINDA MORAGODA: DOES THE PM WANT A DEAL?

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASONS 1.5
B, D.

REF: Colombo 0032

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000044

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/14
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS CE
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSED POLITICAL SITUATION WITH
MILINDA MORAGODA: DOES THE PM WANT A DEAL?

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASONS 1.5
B, D.

REF: Colombo 0032


1. (C) SUMMARY: Milinda Moragoda says it is not clear if
the PM wants a deal with the President, or a
confrontation. The Indians continue to try to work the
issue. Milinda sees proposed Tokyo co-chairs meeting as a
way to keep attention focussed on Sri Lanka, but thinks
outcome needs to be carefully managed. Milinda is aware
that public opinion in Sri Lanka can change quickly and is
concerned that the PM stick to the moral high ground. END
SUMMARY.

A Deal or Not?
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador on Jan 9 called on Milinda Moragoda,
just recently back from his visit to Washington, Norway
and Brussels. Ambassador described his meeting with
President Kumaratunga (CBK) at which he handed over
Secretary Powell's letter, noting that CBK at first said

SIPDIS
she could not compromise any further with President, but
at end admitted she might have some wiggle room.
Ambassador said he believed CBK would not take a deal in
which she retained the Defense Minister title but handed
over all powers to the PM; she might take a deal under
which she gazetted some powers.


3. (C) Milinda said that Indian High Commissioner Nirupam
Sen was continuing to work this issue, still pushing the
idea of setting up theater commands which the PM would
control. Milinda then said: "I have to talk to the PM to
see if he really wants a deal or not." Ninety-five
percent of the Parliamentary group want a deal, but five
percent are hardliners who want a confrontation.

Co-chairs Meeting
--------------


4. (C) Milinda asked if the proposed co-chairs meeting
was now set, and Ambassador replied he believed invites
would go out shortly. Milinda said he believed the
meeting would have two possible functions, depending on
the movement in the political situation. If the impasse
were resolved by that time, it could chart a way forward
on assistance and re-emphasize the need for sticking to
the economic reform program. If not resolved, it could
serve to keep donor attention focussed on Sri Lanka.
Ambassador noted that some donors seemed to want to
release aid to the North and East, as the perception was
that it was now the Government that was holding up the
peace process. Milinda looked discomfited, and said there
would have to be some balance about assistance to the
South. (Comment: Both Japanese Ambassador Suda and
Netherlands Ambassador Blankhart--just taken over for the
EU Presidency--appear adamant about holding back on
assistance in the South.)


5. (C) Milinda said that he had briefed the Cabinet on
Thursday, telling them that a Co-chairs meeting would
"probably happen." This meant that news of the meeting
would almost certainly appear in this Sunday's newspapers.
What should he say when the press asked him about this,
Milinda said. Could the US issue a statement about the
meeting? Ambassador replied since the invitations to the
meeting were just going out, it was unlikely we would
issue a statement before replies had been received.


6. (C) Milinda said that he was confused himself about
the Prime Minister's public comments about the cease-fire
agreement (reftel). Ambassador noted that the statement
did not seem to have played well, as many Sri Lankans
seemed to view it as the PM playing politics with the
peace process. Ambassador and Milinda then discussed the
prior day's meeting of the Joint Business Forum (Sri
Lanka's apex private sector organization),at which some
300 CEO's had angrily protested at the lack of progress on
resolving the political crisis. Milinda said he was
trying to convince the PM that he had to keep the moral
high ground.


7. (C) COMMENT: Milinda's question about whether or not
the PM really wants a deal is telling. The signals are
mixed, and the PM is clearly receiving conflicting advice.
His dislike and distrust for the President are probably
driving him towards a confrontation. On the other side
public pressure is strongly in favor of compromise.

LUNSTEAD