Sri Lanka: Rebel eastern commander torques up

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000435

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, S/CT, SA/INS, INR/NESA

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/14
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR MOPS KPAO CE NO IN LTTE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Rebel eastern commander torques up
his criticism of main Tamil Tiger organization in north

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston VA DTG 100511Z Mar 04
- (B) Colombo 422, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Rebel LTTE commander Karuna continues
to lash out at the main Tamil Tiger organization in the
north. In a March 9 interview with BBC TV, Karuna --
speaking at a base in Batticaloa -- asserted that he had
left the LTTE because he thought the group was preparing
for war pending the outcome of the April 2 election.
Amid word that mediation efforts have failed, various
unconfirmed reports are circulating that both sides are
involved in killings and the situation in the east
remains tense. In a meeting with the local co-chairs
attended by the Ambassador, visiting Norwegian Special
Envoy Erik Solheim related that, in the GoN's
estimation, Karuna is an impressive leader. In a
meeting with the DCM, the Indian Deputy High
Commissioner said he thought that Karuna, in general,
was consolidating his position. The LTTE is almost
certainly in the process of trying to eliminate Karuna,
but he seems to have some staying power. END SUMMARY.

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Karuna hits out at LTTE
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2. (U) Rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
commander Karuna continues to lash out at the main LTTE
Tiger organization in the north. (Per Ref B, Karuna
announced last week that he was separating his forces in
the Batticaloa/Ampara areas of the east from the main
LTTE.) In a March 9 interview carried by BBC TV, Karuna
said the primary cause of the split was a recent
decision by Tiger leader V. Prabakharan and his
associates to order 1,000 eastern troops to go the
north. Queried as to why Prabakharan had ordered the
troop deployment, Karuna replied that he thought that
Prabakharan had plans to launch a military offensive
pending the outcome of Sri Lanka's April 2 parliamentary
elections. (Karuna was clearly indicating that
Prabhakaran might go to war if President Kumaratunga's
party manages to win the election. The LTTE considers
Kumaratunga a bitter foe.) Asked for the specific
reason why he had chosen to break off from the main
Tiger organization at this time, Karuna replied that for
a long time the Tigers had been at war, but now that
there was peace eastern troops should be "at home with
their families" and it was a "betrayal" to move cadre
from the east into the north now. (Karuna hit on many
of the same themes in the interview with AFP contained
in Ref A.)


3. (U) The video feed of the BBC interview was
particularly striking. Throughout the interview, Karuna
appeared relaxed, confident, and calm. At one point, he
even stated in a lighthearted manner that he knew his
life was in danger, but that he was not afraid. Visible
in the background as Karuna spoke were numerous military
personnel, both male and female, drilling with automatic
weapons in precise formation, as well as scenes of
artillery drills being carried out with well-maintained
field guns. (The interview was conducted by BBC Sri
Lanka correspondent Frances Harrison and took place at a
Tiger base in Batticaloa District. The base was
probably located in the Thoppigalla jungle west of
Batticaloa city, a long-standing area of LTTE control.)

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Reports of fighting Unconfirmed
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4. (C) In the meantime, reports of killings within the
LTTE as a result of the schism between east and north
continue to circulate. There are, for example, various
reports that Pathuman, a high-level LTTE commander in
Trincomalee District, has been executed by the main LTTE
organization while on a visit to the Vanni, the main
LTTE zone of control in the north. Senior military
sources, for example, told DATT on March 9 that Pathuman
had indeed been killed in the Vanni. The pro-Tiger
website "TamilNet," however, carried an article March 9
quoting Pathuman as saying he was "keeping fine," and
denying the reports that he had been harmed. In a March
9 meeting attended by Ambassador Lunstead, Norwegian
Special Envoy Erik Solheim also stated that Pathuman had
not/not been killed. In a March 10 meeting, Indian
Deputy High Commissioner Mohan Kumar said the GoI thinks
Pathuman is probably alive, but is absolutely certain he
had been questioned and tortured. Kumar was equally
certain Pathuman will not return to his Trincomalee
post, as he was too close to Karuna. There are also
various reports of fighting between pro-Karuna and pro-
Prabakharan forces in the east. Military sources,
however, have told Mission that press reports of
killings in the east are "wildly exaggerated." Sri Lanka
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) personnel made the same point
when queried about the reports of fighting by poloff.
During a March 9 visit with a visiting INL delegation,
however, Senior police Deputy Inspector General Chandra
Fernando said he understood that many internecine
killings had indeed taken place.


5. (C) In other developments, a mediation effort meant
to end the split appears to have failed. The effort was
led by Roman Catholic Bishop of Batticaloa/Trincomalee
Kingsley Swampillai, who led a delegation of eastern
university officials, business leaders, and other
notables to the Vanni town of Kilinochchi to discuss the
situation on March 8. According to contacts, the Bishop
told Tiger political leader S.P. Thamilchelvam that he
thought the rift in the LTTE could be worked out
peacefully. Swampillai also reportedly said eastern
Tamils felt that northern Tamils had treated them poorly
over the years. Thamilchelvam replied that the LTTE was
willing to grant Karuna amnesty if he returned to the
LTTE fold. Karuna went on to reject the LTTE amnesty
offer in harsh terms on March 9. It is not known
whether Bishop Swampillai plans to continue his
mediation effort.


6. (SBU) Amid all the conflicting reports, the
situation in the east remains tense. Contacts have told
Mission that the plethora of rumors, claims, and
counter-claims are leading to great anxiety on the part
of the local populace in the east. The major worry
shared by all communities is that violence between the
northern and eastern factions of the LTTE will break out
and they will be caught in the crossfire. While
military sources have reiterated to Mission that they
are not on alert status, they characterize the entire
Eastern Province as on edge and note that they are
monitoring the situation closely. One piece of good
news is that a hartal (work stoppage) planned for March
10 (apparently to protest against Karuna) in Trincomalee
District appears not to have panned out and normal
commerce is going on in the area. Separately, the
Norwegian-led SLMM has denied press reports that it has
pulled out of the east. In a March 10 conversation with
poloff, Agnes Bragadottir, SLMM spokeswoman, stated that
monitors were still operating in government-held areas
of the east and going about their duties in normal
fashion. She added, however, that SLMM personnel were
not entering into areas that were controlled by Karuna.

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Norwegian Comments on Situation
--------------

7. (C) In his March 9 meeting with the local
representatives of the four co-chairs (U.S. Japan,
Norway, EU),Special Envoy Solheim related that, in the
GoN's estimation, Karuna is an impressive leader.
Solheim noted that he and other GoN officials had met
with Karuna on multiple occasions over the past two
years. From those encounters, Solheim described Karuna
as "charismatic," and "one of the best in the LTTE
ranks." Karuna had been educating himself, including
learning English, over the past two years. Calling
Karuna a "peacemaker," Solheim added that the Tiger
commander has a conciliatory attitude towards Muslims,
who comprise about one-third of the population in the
Eastern Province. (FYI: Other contacts have told us
that Karuna is anti-Muslim.)


8. (C) Regarding the GoN's positioning vis-a-vis the
LTTE situation, Solheim said the Norwegians will
continue to speak with all parties. The GoN will not
reach out to Karuna, but will contnue to take his calls.
The Tiger commander, through his secretary Varathan, has
called the Norwegians several times in recent days,
Solheim confirmed (also see Ref B regarding Varathan's
conversation with Norwegian Ambassador Brattskar on
March 3). Karuna's only specific request to the
Norwegians had been for a separate ceasefire agreement
with the Sri Lankan government. The GSL rejected the
offer, which Karuna also made directly to the Sri Lankan
military (see Ref B). During his visit to Sri Lanka,
Solheim said, he was scheduled to visit Jaffna, LTTE
headquarters in Kilinochchi, and possibly the city of
Trincomalee. At this time, Solheim stated, he had no
plans to visit Batticaloa, the area now controlled by
Karuna.

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Indian Review of Situation
--------------


9. (C) In a March 10 meeting with the DCM, Indian
Deputy High Commissioner Kumar made the following key
points:

-- The GoI generally sees Karuna as consolidating his
position.

-- Indian military analysis suggests that of the
approximately 6,000 military personnel under Karuna's
command, roughly 2,500-3,000 are actual soldiers with
"guns in hand." Split into eight regiments of 350 each,
about 1,500 are ten-year-or-more grizzled combat
veterans absolutely loyal to Karuna, having fought under
him in several key battles. The Indians assess that
Karuna has approximately 500 more combat-ready soldiers
under his command than Prabhakaran, which Kumar said was
surprising, to say the least.

-- Approximately one month ago, Karuna had been accused
of misappropriating LTTE funds and was summoned to the
Vanni to explain. Karuna, anticipating that he might
not return, or at the very least, was in for an
unpleasant time, refused the fiat from the northern
leadership.

-- Karuna's wife and children traveled to Australia via
Malaysia 2-3 weeks ago. (We checked with the Australian
High Commission DCM on this report. She said "not as
far as we know," but admitted that the Karuna family
could have traveled under a different name or on a
different passport.)

-- On the question of how long Karuna can sustain his
troops, the Indians think six months. Karuna has a
brother named "Reggie" who runs a very successful
"marine products" business in Batticaloa. Reggie has
overseas commercial ties as well and could be a source
of funds.

-- The Indians consider two MPs from the pro-LTTE Tamil
National Alliance (TNA) currently standing for election
to be pro-Karuna. (We have heard that one of these may
be TNA MP A. Chandranehru, from Ampara, who was
reportedly called to the Vanni recently for his
participation in an anti-Prabakharan rally.)

(Late March 10, DCM also spoke to British Deputy High
Commissioner Peter Hughes, who said that British High
Commissioner Stephen Evans had met with S.P.
Thamilchelvam on March 9. While Thamilchelvam did not
offer any concrete information on how the LTTE
leadership was handling the Karuna situation, Evans
reported there was clearly "lots going on behind the
scenes." Evans, who was en route from the northern town
of Kilinochchi to Mullaittivu on the northeast coast,
said the situation along the way were calm and quiet,
with no indication that anything was amiss.)

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COMMENT
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10. (C) The LTTE is almost certainly in the process of
trying to eliminate Karuna. There are many unconfirmed
reports that the LTTE is trying to infiltrate forces
into the Batticaloa area in order to attack him, for
example. The problem for the LTTE, however, is that
Karuna does not appear to be a flash in the pan, but
seems to have some staying power. As evidenced by the
BBC TV report, he appears to be well dug in in his
jungle bases, with hundreds if not thousands of forces
under his command. Based on his interviews with the
press, he is also articulate and seems to have
considerable political skills. Moreover, while it is
too early to tell, he may be gaining considerable
support from among the civilian populace in the east.
All in all, the LTTE appears to be facing a very stiff
challenge. In the past, the group responded with
violence to all challenges. It is not clear whether it
will feel free to do this in light of domestic support
for the peace process and the post-September 11, 2001
international situation. END COMMENT.


11. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD