In meeting with Ambassador, PM Wickremesinghe

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000418

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03-09-14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER PHUM CE
SUBJECT: In meeting with Ambassador, PM Wickremesinghe
optimistic about April 2 parliamentary election

Refs: Colombo 406, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Wickremesinghe intends
to use the signed photo of his White House visit in his
campaign. He hopes to win an absolute majority and will
use it to push the President to return the powers she
seized in November. He thinks the Election Commission
is doing a good job. His media campaign will kick off
next week. He is happy with the electoral assistance
the U.S. plans to sponsor. He met with the Defense and
Interior Secretaries soon after the inter-LTTE dispute
broke out and is working to keep things calm. END
SUMMARY.

PM's CAMPAIGN GETTING INTO GEAR
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador called on Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe March 9. The PM's residence at Temple
Trees was buzzing with campaign activities, with the
normally-sleepy waiting room full of workers with
folders marked "Campaign" and shouting into cell phones.
The PM said that he has been suffering from a sore
throat for the past few days, which has curtailed his
activities, but that it is improving now. Ambassador
presented the PM with photos signed by President Bush
from the PM's November visit to the White House. The PM
was extremely pleased, and immediately conferred with an
aide on how he might use the photos in his campaign.

POST-ELECTION SCENARIOS
--------------


3. (C) Ambassador said the conventional wisdom was that
the most likely election result would be a hung
Parliament, with neither the PM's party nor the
President's gaining an outright majority. How would the
PM handle that situation? The PM said that his goal was
to win an absolute majority, and that was what he was
focusing on. He said that his media campaign would kick
off next week, and he would also begin opinion polling
then. Ambassador said that even if the PM won a
majority, the structural problem of cohabitation would
remain, with divided powers between the President and
the PM. How would he deal with that? PM said that his
view was that if he received a mandate from the people,
he would insist that she hand back control of all three
Ministries.

ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
--------------


4. (SBU) Ambassador then briefed the PM on our plans
for electoral assistance and observation. Ambassador
said that we had been working with complementary
programs from both the National Democratic Institute
(NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI),
but that we had just heard that IRI had decided not to
respond to the revised proposal, and so NDI would be the
implementing partner. The PM said that NDI had a lot of
experience working with the Election Commission and that
IRI had focused more on working with the political
parties, so in the current context the arrangement
seemed logical. Ambassador told him that we would also
be deploying teams of Embassy personnel around the
country to observe the elections, and that we would not
hesitate to speak up if we saw problems. PM said that
was good. He also said that he was pleased with the
work thus far of the Election Commissioner.

LTTE SITUATION
--------------

5. (C) Ambassador then asked about the situation in the
East where LTTE rebel Karuna was defying Prabhakaran,
and whether this would affect the election. PM said he
did not think it would as long as large-scale fighting
did not break out. Ambassador asked if the PM were in
contact with the President or her people on this issue.
PM said that shortly after the issue erupted, he had
called over Defense Secretary Cyril Herath and Interior
Secretary M.N. Junaid to talk to them about keeping the

SIPDIS
situation calm. (Defense and Interior are two of the
Ministries that the President took over in November.) He
said that he might have talked to the President, but she
was off campaigning. Ambassador said he was reassured
by the fact that the two wings of the GSL were talking
to each other.


6. (C) COMMENT: The energetic atmosphere around the PM
was in stark contrast to the rather despondent air which
seemed to permeate the UNP right after Parliament was
dissolved. At present we have little gauge of public
opinion, but Sri Lanka's proportional representation
system will make it extremely hard for the PM's UNP
party to win an outright majority. His stated intent, if
he wins a clear majority, to insist that the President
hand back the Defense Minister position, seems likely to
set the country up for another battle of wills, since
the President will claim constitutional mandate for
holding onto the post. We are very pleased, however, to
hear that the PM is working with the Defense and
Interior Secretaries to keep the LTTE squabble from
blowing up in their faces. END COMMENT.


7. (U) Minimize considered.


LUNSTEAD