Maldives: Increasing signs of opposition to

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000248

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02-13-14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PHUM MV
SUBJECT: Maldives: Increasing signs of opposition to
the long rule of President Gayoom

Refs: Colombo 181, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition to President Gayoom's long
rule of the Maldives appears to be growing stronger.
Mission has heard that anti-Gayoom elements may be
planning to rally in Male' and that police have been out
in force to counter any such effort. There are also
indications that an anti-Gayoom political party is
increasingly active and may be picking up support. It
remains unclear how serious the situation is for Gayoom,
but it appears to be growing increasingly tense. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) REPORTS OF INCREASING DISSENSION: Opposition to
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's long rule of the
Maldives appears to be growing stronger. One key
indication of this came in a February 12 phone
conversation between Ambassador Lunstead and Minh Pham,
UNDP Resident Representative for the Maldives (Amcit--
strictly protect). Pham said he was hearing an
increasing number of reports that an "active
underground" in the country was planning a large
demonstration that would take place in Male' in coming
days, possibly on February 12 or 14. In reaction to
these reports, Pham related, the Maldivian government
had imposed a "restrictive travel order" (effectively a
curfew) from 1-4 AM for February 12 in Male'. Due to
the increase in tension, the UN had raised its security
posture to "Phase I" for the time being. (Note: We
have not heard that any demonstration took place in
Male' on February 12. Several attempts to contact Pham
early on February 13 to check on the situation were not
successful. A long-time Embassy contact, Pham has
spoken to us several times of late about the recent rise
in tensions in the Maldives -- see Reftels. Tensions
began their spike in September 2003 when rioting erupted
in Male' after police shootings at a prison on a nearby
island.)


3. (C) DISSIDENT TO RETURN?: In another sign of
political dissonance, Mission has been contacted by
Waheed Hassan, a former member of the Majlis
(Parliament) and key figure in Maldivian opposition
circles. Currently working for UNICEF in Kabul,
Afghanistan, Hassan -- via e-mail -- related that he was
contemplating a return to the Maldives at the request of
other opposition elements soon. It is not clear whether
Hassan has received GoRM permission to return. Due to
his anti-Gayoom views, however, it is believed that he
has been in semi-official exile for some years and could
potentially be a target for arrest.


4. (C) OPPOSITION PARTY ACTIVITIES: In the meantime,
the most recent (February) newsletter of the anti-Gayoom
Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) stated that former
attorney general Mohamed Munavvar and former planning
minister Ibrahim Hussain Zaki had joined the opposition
party's ranks. (Note: The MDP is not a recognized
legal entity in the Maldives, where Gayoom has nixed the
creation of political parties. It is active among
Maldivians living overseas, however, including those in
Sri Lanka, and may be increasingly active inside the
Maldives.) Both Munavvar and Zaki were ousted from
their positions when Gayoom reshuffled his cabinet at
the time of his November 2003 inauguration. Munavvar,
however, still retains his seat in the Majlis,
representing the southern atoll district of Addu. In
the past, both men have spoken to Mission of their
dissatisfaction with Gayoom and the current political
climate in the Maldives (see Reftels). The MDP's claim
that the two men have joined that party has not been
independently confirmed, however.


5. (C) As for the MDP, the party seems to be becoming
increasingly active. According to its website
(www.maldiviandemocraticparty.org),the party just
conducted online elections for a "General Council,"
which concluded February 12. Among those reportedly
elected to the MDP's 15-member council were Zaki, as
well as Jenifer Latheef, daughter of one of the MDP
organizers. It is not precisely clear, but Waheed
Hassan appears to be one of the major organizers of the
MDP.


6. (C) COMMENT: It remains unclear how serious the
situation is for Gayoom. He has been in power for over
25 years now and, by and large, has proven adept at
defusing opposition to his rule. That said, the
situation does appear relatively tense, especially in
light of the unprecedented rioting that rocked Male'
last September after prison violence on a nearby island
(see Reftels). The official reports that Gayoom ordered
to look into the September violence are now out and in
public view, but the opposition is making great hay out
of the fact that some sections were redacted, claiming
that there has been a cover-up (Gayoom says the redacted
sections deal with issues that need to be protected for
reasons of national security). Given the ferocity of
the charges and the apparent web of support the MDP is
netting, Gayoom clearly has his hands full. END
COMMENT.


7. (U) Minimize considered.


LUNSTEAD