MALDIVIAN REFORMISTS IN EXILE ASK FOR USG SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001912

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVIAN REFORMISTS IN EXILE ASK FOR USG SUPPORT

REF: A. COLOMBO 1878


B. COLOMBO 1686

C. COLOMBO 1582

Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a November 24 meeting with poloffs,
representatives of the unregistered Maldivian Democratic
Party (MDP) living in Sri Lanka expressed concern about the
freeness and fairness of parliamentary elections scheduled
for December 31. In particular, they said that legal
restrictions, including house arrest and/or the prospect of
serious criminal charges, against the MDP's most prominent
members in Maldives have created a climate of intimidation
and inhibited the MDP from mounting a credible campaign.
Absent significant MDP representation, they argued, the new
Parliament will function as no more than a rubber stamp for
President Gayoom, obstructing genuine reform efforts and
ensuring Gayoom remains in office for his seventh five-year
term. The MDP representatives asked the U.S. to press for
three specific actions from Gayoom before the election: to
allow the MDP to register as a party; to engage with MDP
members in exile; and to drop criminal cases against the
MDP's most prominent members. We agree that current
circumstances are not promising for fully free and fair
elections and that prospects for Gayoom continuing on the
path to reform may be fading. End summary.

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MDP: ONLY THIRD-STRING CANDIDATES
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2. (C) On November 24 poloffs met with Mohamad Latheef,
Mohamad Nasheed, Hassan Zahir and Adam Abdul Gafoor,
representatives of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP)
living in self-imposed exile in Sri Lanka. The delegation
had requested the meeting to discuss concerns about the
welfare of six MDP Members of the Special Majlis under house
arrest and about elections for the People's Majlis scheduled
for December 31. They said they were particularly worried
about the mental and physical health of former SAARC
Secretary General Ibrahim Zaki, a heart patient who had

SIPDIS
suffered a mild stroke before his arrest in August and had
shown clear signs of physical and mental distress when
Ambassador and DCM met with him on two separate occasions
during his detention (Refs B and C). According to Zaki's
son, the former SAARC Secretary General and career civil
servant had signed a "statement" under duress as a condition
of his release from the prison island of Dhoonidhoo to house
arrest in the capital of Male but had never actually read the
contents of the statement and thus claims not to know what he
actually confessed to. (Note: As reported Ref B, when
Ambassador met Zaki in detention on October 7, Zaki repeated
several times in an agitated manner that he had agreed to
sign a "statement" the following day in exchange for
permission to see his family and go to the hospital. When
Ambassador asked what the statement was, Zaki replied "a
statement of what I have done." End note.)

3. (U) Relatively minor charges (for unlawful assembly)
have been filed against two of the twelve MPs who had been
detained in the wake of the August 12-13 disturbances. There
are no charges so far against the six Special Majlis MPs
(including Zaki, former Attorney General Mohamad Munavvar and
businessman Ibrahim Gasim) who remain under house arrest and
are proscribed from receiving telephone calls. Other MPs who
were released from detention on Dhoonidhoo are under "island
arrest" (not permitted to leave their home island).

4. (C) Even though charges have been filed against only two
MPs so far, the other 10 MPs, especially those under house
arrest, live with the constant fear that charges--probably
very serious charges--may be filed against them by the
Government of the Republic of Maldives (GORM) at any moment,
the MDP representatives said. As a result, none of the MPs
under house arrest or any other "front-line" MDP activists
have filed papers to run in the December 31 People's Majlis
election. The GORM pressured the MDP's likeliest and most
popular potential candidates--almost all of whom were
detained after the August 12-13 unrest--not to run in
exchange for "going easy on them" in considering which
charges to file against them, Nasheed claimed. As a result,
even though 30 MDP sympathizers are running in the election
(42 seats are open),most of these candidates are the party's
"third team," he said, who have neither the name recognition,
popularity or financing of its most prominent membership.
Moreover, Ibrahim Gasim, a wealthy businessman who had helped
other young pro-reform Maldivians get their start in
politics, is discouraging these proteges from running as
well, Latheef said. Without its best-known candidates (and,
implicitly, without Gasim's bankroll),the MDP is finding it
difficult to mount a credible campaign, the delegation
indicated.
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INTIMIDATION, ISLAND-STYLE
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5. (C) The GORM is using its well-oiled administrative
machinery to ensure that even those MDP candidates who are
running face an uphill struggle, Nasheed charged. Minister
of Atoll Administration Abdullah Hameed, who is President
Gayoom's brother-in-law, has been telling atoll chiefs that
their positions of leadership and Government funding for
their atolls will be in jeopardy if MDP candidates win on
islands under their jurisdiction, Nasheed claimed. As a
result, atoll chiefs are actively campaigning against the MDP
candidates, warning islanders not to vote for them. With
such rampant intimidation of voters and candidates, how can
the elections be considered free and fair, Latheef asked.
International election observers are unlikely to find
evidence of fraud or rigging, Nasheed added, since Gayoom
will have already ensured the outcome of the election long
before voting takes place. The composition of the People's
Majlis is particularly important to Gayoom, Latheef said,
because the Majlis selects the lone presidential candidate.
(Note: Under the Maldivian system, candidates for the
presidency nominate themselves. The 50-member People's
Majlis then selects one candidate--which, for the past 26
years, has invariably been President Gayoom--and submits his
name for a popular referendum. No one else runs against the
Majlis-selected candidate in the referendum. End note.) By
ensuring a pro-Gayoom People's Majlis, Nasheed said, Gayoom
will effectively ensure his re-election for a seventh term.
(Note: It has been widely assumed that Gayoom would not seek
re-election after his term ends in 2008. At present,
however, there is no legal restriction on his doing so. End
note.) By hamstringing the MDP, "Gayoom has been able to
circumvent many of his difficulties. In many senses, he has
won this round," Nasheed concluded.

6. (SBU) On November 26 Nasheed contacted poloffs again to
report that two MDP candidates for re-election to the
People's Majlis, Mohamad Shihab and Hassan Afeef, were
summoned to police headquartes in Male on November 25.
Nasheed speculated that the police would attempt to
intimidate Shihab and Afeef into withdrawing their
nominations.
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APPEAL FOR U.S. HELP
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7. (C) President Gayoom "takes comfort" in what he views as
a supportive U.S. stance toward his regime, Latheef said.
Pressure from the U.S. would do much to urge Gayoom along the
path to reform, he suggested. The MDP delegation asked for
U.S. assistance in persuading Gayoom to take three specific
steps. First, the U.S. Embassy should ask the GORM--either
the President's office or the Attorney General--to clarify
publicly before elections are held whether the registration
of political parties is permitted under Article 27 of the
Constitution. (Note: While there is no law prohibiting the
registration of political parties, there is no law that
specifically permits it either. Article 27 allows for
freedom of association. The previous Attorney General,
Mohamad Munavvar, who is ironically now one of the MPs under
house arrest, determined in 2001 that political party
registration is not covered under Article 27. Nasheed
indicated that the current Attorney General, on the other
hand, had once unofficially indicated to him that Article 27
permits political parties to register. End note.) Second,
the Embassy should urge President Gayoom to engage with MDP
members in exile. Latheef acknowledged that direct
communication with the President seems unlikely, but
suggested that initial contact with the GORM could be
established via one of Gayoom close confidants, e.g., Foreign
Minister Fathullah Jameel, Atoll Minister and Gayoom relative
Hameed, or Trade Minister and Gayoom relative Abdullah
Yameen. Third, the delegation asked the Embassy to persuade
Gayoom to drop all charges and investigations against its
most prominent members, including the six MPs currently under
house arrest, and allow them to campaign without restraint in
the upcoming election.
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COMMENT
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8. (C) MDP-supported candidates won 30 of 42 available seats
in Special Majlis elections six months ago--a fairly reliable
indicator of the depth of pro-reform sentiment in this tiny
island nation. The GORM seems to be doing its best to
discourage a similar outcome in the People's Majlis election.
Institutional arrangements for elections in Maldives clearly
favor the status quo; the MDP's dubious legal status--a party
that cannot register as a party--coupled with the even more
dubious legal status of its most prominent members, who have
been under one form of detention or the other for the past
four months and may face sedition charges in the near
future--clearly are hobbling efforts to mount a challenge to
Gayoom. Under current circumstances, the December 31
elections seem unlikely to redistribute a deck that is so
obviously stacked in Gayoom's favor. The implications of all
this for long-term political reform are discouraging. Septel
will offer our views on what the U.S. posture should be.
LUNSTEAD