SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION IN NO RUSH TO JOIN PROPOSED COUNCIL ON PEACE TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001521

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2014
TAGS: PGOV, CE, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION IN NO RUSH TO JOIN PROPOSED
COUNCIL ON PEACE TALKS


Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a September 14 meeting with the Ambassador,
Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe indicated that his
United National Party (UNP) is in no hurry to accept
President Kumaratunga's invitation to join a multi-partisan
advisory council on possible peace talks with the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The President realizes she
cannot "rein in" the radical chauvinist Janatha Vimukti
Peramuna (JVP) and has no fallback strategy to restart talks,
he charged. While the UNP will support any proposal that
will advance prospects for peace, Wickremesinghe suggested,
his party will insist that the President first get
tendentious members of her own house--especially the JVP--in
order before asking the Opposition to do the heavy lifting on
the peace process. End summary.

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UNP BIDING TIME ON PROPOSED ADVISORY COUNCIL
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2. (C) In a September 14 meeting with the Ambassador,
Opposition Leader (and former Prime Minister) Ranil
Wickremesinghe confirmed that President Chandrika Kumaratunga
had invited his United National Party (UNP) to participate in
a proposed multi-partisan council to advise the Government of
Sri Lanka (GSL) on the peace process. Wickremesinghe said
that he told the President that UNP participation would
depend on how the council is structured. Wickremesinghe sees
it as a forum where the parties would simply present their
views, not debate them or seek consensus. If instead the
council functions as a public debating forum or an all-party
conference, it could end up hindering, instead of helping,
the peace process, he suggested. Moreover, members should
have the option of communicating views to the GSL in private.
The President reportedly told the Opposition Leader that the
GSL would forward a formal proposal for the council for UNP
review.

3. (C) Formation of an advisory council should follow,
rather than precede, the first round of resumed talks,
Wickremesinghe said. He suggested that the effort expended
by the President to form an advisory council on as-yet
unscheduled talks would be better directed at actually
getting consensus to restart negotiations. To do so,
however, the President knows that she will have to get the
agreement of left-wing nationalist coalition partner Janatha
Vimukti Peramuna (JVP),which, in Wickremesinghe's
estimation, she cannot do. With her efforts to "rein in" the
JVP unsuccessful so far, she is attempting, through the
proposed Advisory Council, to get other parties to take
public positions on controversial topics like an interim
administration for the north and east, he charged. While the
UNP will support any interim arrangement that meets the
criteria of the Tokyo Declaration, the party is unwilling to
make public that support unless the JVP, which continues to
criticize the UNP for being "soft" on the Tigers, also gets
on board. "The President can't have her cake and eat it
too," he concluded.

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UNP COUNTER-CAMPAIGN
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4. (C) Given current unfavorable political dynamics, the
visit of Norwegian Special Envoy Solheim is likely to do
little to advance the peace process, he predicted. (Note:
Solheim arrives in Colombo September 14. End note.)
Wickremesinghe believes Kumaratunga did not bargain on being
saddled with contentious coalition partners like the JVP--she
was banking on either gaining a solid majority or remaining
in the Opposition--and has thus not developed a fallback
strategy on how to restart negotiations under these
precarious conditions. "I couldn't carry forward the peace
process with a coalition," he observed. Lacking the votes to
carry her constituent assembly proposal forward and with the
economy turning sour, Kumaratunga's government will likely
"muddle along for some time." Current UNP strategy is
focusing on a campaign to put pressure on the the President
to resume talks, he said, adding that the full-court press
will likely begin around December or January when the full
effects of expected price increases will kick in and the
government will be most vulnerable.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) A multipartisan council to advise the GSL on the
peace process is a good idea in principle. As long as the
President remains unable to count on the JVP, her largest
coalition partner, however, it is a bit unrealistic to expect
the Opposition to support it. Wickremesinghe's UNP clearly
expects to profit politically from the President's
predicament. By advancing the proposal, the GSL may have
been hoping to create the illusion of progress toward
negotiations. If so, that plan may backfire, with the lack
of multipartisan support the proposal has attracted so far
instead highlighting the lack of movement and consensus on
the peace process.
LUNSTEAD