Karuna Affair Continues to Plague Government

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001086

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06-28-14
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS PGOV CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Karuna Affair Continues to Plague Government

Refs: (A) Colombo 1074, and previous

- (B) DAO Colombo CE IIR 6 816 0071 04

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Rumors and stories continue to swirl
around the events associated with rebel Tiger leader
Karuna and his whereabouts. Government officials are
engaged in fingerpointing about who knew what and when
they knew it about Karuna. The GSL has not done a good
job of managing the media well. At present, it is
probable that Karuna is in the custody of the Sri Lankan
military, despite continuing denial by the military. It
is not the end of the story with Karuna and, given the
recent reports, the GSL faces a huge challenge to manage
the situation adroitly in the face of increasing
suspicion by the LTTE. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) THE REALITY: Since June 21-22 when the media
reported that breakaway rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) leader Karuna was in the control of the Sri
Lanka military, it has been difficult to separate facts
from speculation regarding what transpired. Ali Zahir
Moulana, a United National Party (UNP) Muslim MP from
the eastern town of Batticaloa, arranged for Karuna to
come to Colombo in mid-April. Detailed accounts in June
27 local newspapers, consistent with Opposition Leader
(and former PM) Ranil Wickremesinghe's June 23
conversation with the Ambassador (Ref A),report that
Karuna arrived in Colombo on April 13 and stayed several
days at the Hilton Colombo Residence. After several
days, according to some of Karuna's companions who
redefected to the LTTE, the Sri Lankan military assumed
custody of Karuna and transferred him to another
Colombo-area location.


3. (C) QUESTIONS ON THE DETAILS: Beyond the basic
facts, details of the events are still speculative. In
his June 23 public statement in which he resigned from
Parliament, Moulana said he helped facilitate Karuna's
transfer to Colombo "on humanitarian grounds." (The
LTTE leadership was actively looking for Karuna and
would have killed the rebel leader if they had caught
him.) While "humanitarian grounds" would seem to be a
legitimate excuse for sheltering Karuna, high level
officials and political figures continue, with
decreasing plausibility, to deny knowledge and
involvement in the situation. The GSL, according to
government spokesman Mangala Samaraweera, had no
knowledge of the events involving Karuna, but admitted
elements of the military might be acting on their own.
Defense Ministry officials, however, deny any Karuna
connection. Wickremesinghe said he did not know about
the actions of Moulana prior to the MP's June 22
admission. The only mission contact to admit a
connection to Karuna is Douglas Devananda, Minister of
Hindu Affairs and Agricultural Marketing Development and
leader of the anti-LTTE Eelam People's Democratic Party
(EPDP). In a June 4 meeting, Devananda said he was in
contact with Karuna and offered to put the Ambassador in
touch with Karuna as well; the Ambassador politely
declined. Press pieces over the weekend quoted
Devananda as saying he was encouraging Karuna to enter
politics.


4. (C) THE MILITARY'S INVOLVEMENT: Despite
overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the Sri Lankan
military continues to deny any involvement with Karuna.
It is not certain if the military facilitated Karuna's
transfer to Colombo or became involved only after his
arrival in the capital. The Sri Lanka Army's (SLA)
ongoing denial on the subject has served only to further
rumors about its activities. Since Karuna made the
public move in March to break with the LTTE leadership
in the Vanni, there have been reports that periodic
skirmishes and attacks on LTTE cadre in the east were
carried out by cadre loyal to Karuna with the backing of
the SLA. The LTTE has publicly accused the SLA of
supporting Karuna in these low-level attacks in the
east. (As far back as April, when Prabhakaran's forces
attacked Karuna's forces and regained control of the
east, the Sri Lankan military was already in denial mode
-- see DATT report on the issue in Ref B). The four
female cadre, who reportedly came to Colombo with Karuna
and subsequently "escaped" from the SLA's control and
returned to the LTTE, have reported on time spent in SLA
safehouses in Colombo following their mid-April trip
from the east.


5. (C) COMMENT: It now seems almost certain that
Karuna is in Colombo and in the control of the Sri
Lankan military, which will not surprise many.
Nonetheless, the public revelations place the GSL in a
remarkably uncomfortable position. Presumed Karuna
loyalists continue to attack Prabhakaran cadre in the
East. The press this morning, for example, reported a
grenade attack on several Prabhakaran cadre near
Batticaloa. Security forces in the Batticaloa area have
intensified security and now operate checkpoints within
the city, exacerbating tension there. What we don't
know is if the security forces are actively using Karuna
and his forces to attack the LTTE, or if they are simply
letting these attacks happen, or if they are unable to
stop them. The Tigers, of course, assume the worst --
that the GSL is using Karuna against them. This has led
the Tigers to question the GSL's sincerity in the peace
process and threaten a return to fighting if the attacks
don't cease. With credible public revelations of links
to Karuna, the GSL has lost plausible deniability. The
result is a shakier peace process in an increasingly
unstable East, and with little or no gain for the
government. END COMMENT.


LUNSTEAD