NAXALITE CONSOLIDATION A CAUSE FOR WORRY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CHENNAI 001395

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER IN
SUBJECT: NAXALITE CONSOLIDATION A CAUSE FOR WORRY

REF: A) 03 Calcutta 516, B) Chennai 1244


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The merger of India's two largest
and best organized Maoist groups, the Peoples' War
(PW) and Maoist Communist Center (MCC),into the
Communist Party of India (Maoist) is likely to expand
the horizon of their ambitions. It will help these
"Naxalites" knit together their areas of entrenchment
in Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand,
and Bihar right up to Nepal and work toward their goal
of a "Compact Revolutionary Zone." The PW and MCC are
believed to have at least 4,000 armed guerillas, and
may have considerably more than that with some Indian
think tanks putting the number of armed PW-MCC
militants at 6,500 to 7,000. They could become a
serious threat to stability and prosperity at the sub-
regional level. END SUMMARY.

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We Have Already Merged, Say Indian Ultra Leftists
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2. (SBU) On October 14, Ramakrishna, State General
Secretary of Andhra Pradesh's most successful Maoist

SIPDIS
group, Peoples War (PW),announced in Hyderabad that
his organization had merged with the Maoist Communist
Center (MCC),to create the Communist Party of India
(Maoist),aka CPI (Maoist),and not to be confused
with the CPI (Marxist) that currently governs in West
Bengal and Tripura. In 2003, the PW and MCCI had been
added to the list of "Other Terrorist Groups" in the
State Department's "Patterns of Global Terrorism"
report. According to Ramakrishna, the merger took
place on September 21. The Maoists thus appear to
have thumbed their noses at the Indian intelligence
officials who reportedly urged a meeting of Chief
Ministers and officials of several Indian states on
September 21, to prevent the long expected merger (Ref
A). Ramakrishna also announced that the military
wings of these organizations - Peoples' Guerrilla Army
of PW and the Peoples' Liberation Guerrilla Army of
MCC - would merge in December and retain the latter
name, PLGA.

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PW: The Deadliest Maoist Group In India
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3. (SBU) The PW has about 2,000 armed guerillas in
different states of India, according to a senior
intelligence officer of Andhra Pradesh (AP). They
have a formidable presence in 12 of AP's 23 districts,
particularly in the "Telengana" areas and northern
coastal districts, running parallel administrations in
over a hundred villages. In recent years, PW presence
has spread to most other districts of AP. According
to AP sources, PW is also strong in several districts
of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Madhya
Pradesh. A GOI presentation made during a conference
of Chief Ministers in Hyderabad suggested that as many
as 125 of India's 602 districts may now be affected.
Security think tanks report that PW possesses AK
series rifles, LMGs, SLRs, carbines, .303s, grenades,
revolvers, pistols and landmines. Additionally, in
2004 they used crude, inaccurate, three-stage rockets
to attack police stations in the Guntur and Prakasam
districts. A technical squad manufactures 12-bore
guns and ammunition, repairs all kinds of weapons and
assembles grenades. The newspaper The Hindu and two
think tank organizations have reported that former
LTTE militants have provided arms training to PW
guerrillas, including training in claymore mine
technology. In October 2003, PW triggered nine
claymore mines that nearly killed former AP Chief
Minister Chandrababu Naidu, providing clear evidence
of its lethal powers.

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MCC: Less Cohesive But With More External Links
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4. (SBU) AP Intelligence sources believe that MCC has
cadre and weapon strength almost equal to the PW, but
that the ranks are less cohesive and disciplined. The
MCC is strongest in Bihar and Jharkhand with some
presence in Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Chhattisgarh,
Orissa, West Bengal and a few districts of
Maharashtra. The MCC is believed to have played a
major role in uniting the major Maoist groups in India
and Nepal. Indian think tanks have reported increased
cooperation between MCC and the Communist Party of
Nepal (Maoist) since 1996, including joint training
camps in India. AP intelligence sources said that
MCC's better connection with transnational channels is
worrisome to Indian law enforcement agencies as it
will now be available to the more effective PW as
well.

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Good-bye to Turf Wars: Consolidation Is In
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5. (SBU) The notoriously splintered Naxalites of
India have been on a consolidation path since the late
Nineties. In 1998, the CPI (ML) Party Unity of Bihar,
a major opponent of the MCC, merged with the PW,
eventually reducing the infighting between various
Naxalite groups in the region. PW and MCC had been
talking merger for a long time but discussions broke
down in 1995 following internecine turf wars. About
2001, both sides announced a truce and started
operational coordination leading to the recent merger.
In the recently launched talks between the AP
Government and the state's Maoists, another Naxalite
organization, CPI (ML) Janashakthi, participated in
coordination with PW leaders. Thus, the recent
mergers and coordination efforts have brought together
four of India's largest and most well organized Maoist
groups.


6. (SBU) In 2001, the MCC, Nepalese Maoists and PW
formed a South Asia umbrella organization of ultra
left groups, The Coordination Committee of Maoist
Parties and Organizations of South Asia (CCOMPOSA).
According to a CCOMPOSA press statement issued on July
1, 2001, the nine founding members of the CCOMPOSA
include the following three parties from Bangladesh:
Vanga Purba Bangala Sarbahara Party (CC),Purba
Bangala Sarbahara Party (Maoist Punargathan Kendra),
Bangaladesh Samyabadi Party (ML); the following four
parties from India: MCC, Peoples War, Revolutionary
Communist Center of India (MLM),Revolutionary
Communist Center of India (Maoist); one party from
Nepal: Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist); and one
party from Sri Lanka: Communist Party of Ceylon
(Maoist). The CCOMPOSA has had three international
conferences so far, the latest of which was held March
16-18, 2004, according to a press release published on
the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) website on April
10, 2004. The release said that Kishore, a Maoist
leader from Nepal, works as Convener of the CCOMPOSA.
The political resolution of the third conference vowed
to "unite all the Maoist forces in the region ever
more closely, build greater bonds of unity with the
struggling forces of the region and turn the
respective countries of South Asia into a strong
bastion of world revolution," according to the press
release.

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"They Will Begin To Think Big"
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7. (SBU) AP Intelligence Deputy Inspector General
Poornachandra Rao told Post that he worries that,
after the merger, "the Naxalites will now begin to
think big, and thinking big is important." According
to Rao, a PW Naxalite hitherto holed up in a jungle in
central Andhra Pradesh will now dream of a larger area
under the militants that extends beyond the state or
the country's boundaries. For years, Indian security
experts have been giving warnings of a larger leftist
agenda to create a "Compact Revolutionary Zone"
stretching across Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh,
Jharkhand, and Bihar to Nepal. Rao does not regard
the present strength of the "armies" of PW and MCC as
a daunting force, but believes that it could grow.

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Conflict On Caste Lines
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8. (SBU) Rao told Post that despite the merger
conflicts between MCC and PW continue at the ground
level. He believes that one of the areas of conflict
is the fact that the PW leadership, largely of upper
caste Hindu background, rules over the lower
caste/Dalit rank and file while in MCC, the leadership
and rank and file are alike of lower caste background.
Such tensions will probably to make coordinated
activity more difficult, according to Rao. In
addition, some of the groups that are nominally part
of the CPI (Maoist) may be reluctant to relinquish
power at the local level and may continue acts of
extortion outside of the organization's umbrella.

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PW Is the Clear Winner
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9. (SBU) Rao also told post that in the new entity,
CPI (Maoist),the PW leadership clearly retains the
upper hand. General Secretary of the PW, Ganapathy,
remains General Secretary of CPI (Maoist). Ganpathy
(real name Muppala Lakshmana Rao) was born around 1950
in the Karimnagar District of Andhra Pradesh. He has
been a hardcore leftist for over 35 years and has
operated underground for 25 years, waging war on
police, police-informants, political leaders and
"feudalists". In 1992, he took over the PW leadership
ousting its founder Kondappalli Seetharamaiah.
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The Naxalite Agenda
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10. (SBU) The Naxalites reject parliamentary
democracy and wage a protracted "people's war" to
usher in a "New Democratic Revolution" that would
establish "People's Government." To that end, they
engage in guerrilla warfare, inspired by Maoist
thought. The successive stages of their declared
program are to build "bases" in villages, form
"guerrilla zones" on the way to declaring them as
"liberated zones," encircle towns and cities and seize
political power. Ramakrishna, the AP State Secretary
of the former PW, told the press on October 12 that
"Using the Dandakaranya region (which covers
continuous forest tracts in Maharashtra, AP, MP,
Chattisgarh, and Orissa) as a lever, we will liberate
the people of this country to establish people's
rule."

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COMMENT
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11. (SBU) Although the Naxalites are numerically not
strong enough to operate the prospective "Compact
Revolutionary Zone" running across the contiguous
jungles in several states, India's socially and
economically disadvantaged millions could feed these
insurrectionist forces. Certainly the success of
Nepal's Maoists in undermining the governance of that
nation serves as an inspiration and a goal for India's
CPI (Maoist). Post notes that PMO internal security
advisor MK Naryanan has described Naxalism as the
single largest internal security threat to India. The
PW-MCC consolidation can only add to the threat.


12. (SBU) The Maoists have relentlessly attacked
India's "mainstream communist" parties, CPI(M) and the
CPI, for their "capitulation to imperialism" - meaning
their market-friendly policies. Already pressed by
their own cadre and ideologues who do not have to cope
with issues of governance in the real world, the
CPI(M) and CPI will now have now to defend themselves
from the increasingly articulate Maoists, too. The
mainstream leftist parties are likely to be now
increasingly wary of market liberalization for fear of
concerted attacks from the consolidating Naxalites.
With 62 MPs in the national parliament, the CPI(M) and
CPI have a major influence on GOI policies.


13. (SBU) The Naxalites are flourishing where there
is a vacuum in state governance - primarily in remote
tribal areas. Given the intra-state reach of the CPI
(Maoist) it appears that the GOI operates at a
disadvantage in leaving it to the states to address
them. A successful strategy to combat the Naxalites
must have two prongs: one, the security aspect
whereby police and paramilitary forces confront them
directly; and two, the development aspect, whereby the
state dries up their support and reasserts control
through the provision of services to the people. We
do not believe that the CPI (Maoist) is likely to
become an existential threat to the GOI at any time in
the foreseeable future. However, if governance issues
are not addressed, there is a substantial possibility
of the CPI (Maoist) becoming a more serious threat to
stability and prosperity at the sub-regional level.
END COMMENT.


14. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New
Delhi and ConGen Calcutta.

Haynes